Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 17th annual college football preview guide which will contain 18 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Big 12 in 2023, which has impressively overcome the pending departures of Oklahoma and Texas by plucking teams from both the Pac-12 and AAC.

1	Texas (11-2, 8-1)- conference champion

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma (October 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Iowa State (November 18)- this game just jumps off the page as the ultimate trap game that the Horns will find a way to lose to knock themselves out of the national title picture.

Bottom Line: It seems like Texas is always the subject of immense preseason hype, which is why I was surprised to learn that this is the first time in 15 years that the Longhorns were the media’s preseason pick to win the Big 12.  I still have quite a bit of concern about Sarkisian’s coaching ability and Ewers’ QB play, but I feel like I have to pick Texas here almost by default, as I just don’t see another team who is talented enough to win this league in 2023. 

2	Oklahoma (10-3, 7-2)- conference runner-up

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. TCU (November 24)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas (October 28)- the Sooners will find a way to lose at least one game they shouldn’t this fall.

Bottom Line: Brent Venables had a rocky start to his coaching tenure last year, as the Sooners experienced their first losing season since 1998. This squad should be much improved in 2023, as Dillon Gabriel returns to lead the offense, and Brent Venables has had another year to rebuild the defense. I just don’t think the Sooners can knock off Texas in either of their two potential neutral site matchups (Red River rivalry game and conference title game).

3	Texas Tech (9-3, 6-3)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oregon (September 9)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at BYU (October 21)

Bottom Line: Seemingly every year, a Cinderella team emerges out of the Big 12 to contend for the conference crown (i.e. TCU in 2022, Baylor in 2021, Iowa State in 202, etc).  This season I am picking the Red Raiders of Texas Tech to fill that role, as second year coach Joey McGuire set the groundwork for a powerhouse program to re-emerge in Lubbock.  The Red Raiders have drastically improved in the recruiting rankings over the past two seasons, and this season they bring back all 11 starters from a top 25 offense in 2022. 

4	TCU (8-4, 6-3)

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Kansas State (October 21)- the Frogs have revenge on their mind after the Wildcats upset them in the Big 12 title game last year. 

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. SMU (September 23)- this is always really close game, as last year a much better Horned Frog team barely beat the Mustangs.  

Bottom Line: The Horned Frogs had a magical season in 2022 in which they caught lots of breaks (+6 turnover margin and 6-1 record in one score games) en route to a national title game appearance.  Lightning usually doesn’t strike twice for these type of teams, especially when they have to replace eight offensive starters like the Frogs do.  I think TCU will still be really good in 2022, but just not good enough to contend for a conference/national title.

5	Kansas State (7-5, 5-4)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Baylor (November 11)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Oklahoma State (October 6)- the Cats are just 1-6 in Stillwater all-time.

Bottom Line: The Wildcats are almost always one of those teams that exceed my expectations and my computer rankings.  As a result, I am a little nervous about dropping the defending Big 12 champion all the way down to the 5 spot in this preseason projection.  Nevertheless, this team  loses stud running back Deuce Vaughn, top receiver Malik Knowles, and over half of their defensive starters, so some regression is bound to happen in Manhattan. 

6	UCF (7-5, 5-4)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma State (November 11)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. West Virginia (October 28)

Bottom Line: All of the Big 12 newcomers from the AAC are going to experience some growing pains in 2022, but I think the Knights are the most equipped to succeed, as they bring back an SEC quarterback (Plumlee), an SEC head coach (Malzahn), and 15 total starters from a team that almost won the American conference title last year. UCF’s schedule is also very favorable, as they avoid Oklahoma, Texas, and TCU in 2023. 

7	Baylor (7-5, 5-4)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas Tech (October 7) 

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UCF (September 30)

Bottom Line: The Bears have alternated between winning and losing seasons every season since 2016, and I am calling for that pattern to continue in 2023.  Last year, the Bears finished under .500 thanks largely to a four game losing streak to end their season.  This year, the Bears will take a step forward, however slight, thanks to an experienced offense that returns 7 starters including their quarterback (Shapen), running back (Richardson), and top receiver (Baldwin).

8	Oklahoma State (7-5, 5-4)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas State (October 6) 

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona State (September 9)

Bottom Line: I hate to say that  Mike Gundy’s magical run in Stillwater has fallen flat, but I do believe the best days of his tenure are behind him.  This team declined from 12 wins in 2021 to just 7 last year, and I believe this team will hang around that 7 win mark for the foreseeable future.  What Gundy has been lacking for the past couple of seasons, is an elite quarterback that can make his potent offense light up scoreboards.  Spencer Sanders had his ups and downs in ‘21 and ‘22 and has now transferred out to become the backup at Ole Miss.  Now, Alan Bowman comes in after failing to earn the starting job at Texas Tech or Michigan.  Mediocrity may becoming the new norm for the Pokes.

9	West Virginia (6-6, 4-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Pittsburgh (September 16)- the Mountaineers are out for revenge in the Backyard Brawl after a narrow road loss in this game last year.  

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Houston (October 12)

Bottom Line: No coaching seat in America is hotter than Neal Brown’s who many thought would be fired after having a third losing season in his 4 year tenure.  The Mountaineers must show progress this year to keep Brown around, and I am calling for them to win just enough games for him to do so.  The Mountaineers have burned me the past few seasons when I picked them to exceed the experts’ expectations for them, but this program is past due for some better luck after  having a -8 turnover margin in 2022.  They also avoid Texas in the conference slate and have an experienced offensive line which they can build around.

10	BYU (5-7, 3-6)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas Tech (October 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas (September 23)

Bottom Line: A year in which you are breaking in a new starting quarterback, running back, and top receiver is not the ideal time to be joining a Power 5 conference for the first time.  Nevertheless, this is where Kalani Sitake’s bunch finds themselves in 2022.  The Cougars have only had one losing season in Sitake’s seven year tenure, but I am predicting a second one to occur this fall as BYU has a brutal schedule featuring road games at Texas, TCU, Oklahoma State and Arkansas.

11	Iowa State (5-7, 3-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas (November 18)- this just seems like the perfect spot for a Cyclone miracle in Jack Trice to derail another Big 12 national title run. 

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Cincinnati (October 14)

Bottom Line: Matt Campbell must certainly be regretting not leaving Ames a few years ago, as he has gone from one of the hottest coaching names in the country to a man who is fighting to save his job after a disappointing 4-8 campaign in 2022.  Iowa State does bring back 9 starters on offense this year, but that might not be a good thing when you consider they were the 113th scoring offense in the country in ‘22.  I think Campbell is a good enough coach to spring an upset or two this season, but until this program starts recruiting better and using the portal more effectively, I don’t see much improvement on the horizon.

12	Houston (3-9, 2-7)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. West Virginia (October 12)- in one of the season’s few bright spots, Holgorsen will get this meaningful home win over his former team.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Rice (September 9)- I am giving the edge to the more experienced Owls in this early season cross town rivalry.

Bottom Line: Interestingly, Dana Holgorsen voluntarily left a Big 12 program 5 years ago to take over a group of five team that now finds itself back in the Big 12.  Like the aforementioned Matt Campbell at Iowa State, Holgorsen was a hot coaching name that has cooled off mightily after failing to meet expectations at Houston.  Now, he enters a much tougher league in a season in which he loses his starting quarterback, top rusher, top two receivers, and top five tacklers. This could be a very long year  for the Cougars.

13	Cincinnati (3-9, 2-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Iowa State (October 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Miami-OH (September 16)- another situation in which a good, experienced Group of Five team will be ready to pull an early season upset against an inexperienced Power 5 foe.

Bottom Line: The Bearcats are about to go from being the premier Group of Five program nationally to the basement of the Big 12 in less than two years.  A fall that far  is bound to happen when you lose your head coach, quarterback, and top eight pass catchers while simultaneously taking a step up into Power 5 football.  Scott Satterfield is a good enough coach to make the Bearcats a respectable Big 12 program, but it is not going to happen in year 1.

14	Kansas (5-7, 2-7)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Illinois (September 9)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Cincinnati (November 25)

Bottom Line: First of all, enough credit cannot be given to Lance Leipold for turning around a perennial FBS bottom feeder who was the biggest laughing stock in all of Power 5 into a bowl team in just his second year at the helm.  It was a tremendous coaching job aided by an incredible quarterback play from Jalon Daniels.  However, this team is not yet built for sustained success, and I believe they will take a step back in 2023.  First of all, this squad won’t be catching anyone by surprise like they were able to do during their early season winning streak last year, and they also have to replace their entire defensive line.  Moreover, keep in mind that this squad lost seven of its final eight games last year so it is not like they enter 2023 with a ton of positive momentum.