Now that I have thoroughly analyzed the upcoming college football season, it is time for me to publish my fourth annual NFL preseason football guide. Much like my college preview, I have gone through and analyzed every NFL team’s regular season and postseason, as well as selected my disappointment and surprise teams and upsets to watch out for.

The records below include all regular season games but do not include playoff games, which will be analyzed in a later entry. The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to make the 2023 NFL playoffs. Without further ado, here are my AFC regular season predictions, with analysis, for my fourth annual NFL preview guide.

AFC East

1	Miami (11-6)– division champ

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas City (November 5)- weird things always seem to happen in these overseas games.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at New England (September 17)  

Bottom Line: The Fins had a solid season last year with a young developing quarterback who should be even better in 2023.  This team has a lot of positive momentum headed in 2023 and has a much easier schedule than the Bills, which is why I am picking them to win this division for the first time in 15 years.

2	Buffalo (10-7)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Dallas (December 17)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Jacksonville (October 8)- weird things always seem to happen in these overseas games.

Bottom Line: Seven losses would be a shock to the Bills’ system in 2023, but their schedule is absolutely brutal with road games at Cincinnati, Kansas City, Philadelphia, and the LA Chargers.  Still, this team is too talented to miss out on the playoffs, so I believe they will make it into the postseason and do some damage while they are there.

3	NY Jets (8-9)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Buffalo (September 11)- this week 1 upset will create way too much hype amongst the New York City media. 

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Cleveland (December 28)

Bottom Line: The preseason projections for the Jets are all over the place, as some experts are calling for this squad to be one of the top teams in the league with Rodgers at the helm, while others are predicting them to finish last in the AFC East again.  I think the reality will be somewhere in between those two extremes.  Rodgers is obviously a huge upgrade at the quarterback position but there are still some major concerns along the offensive line.  All in all, I think the Jets will be a middle of the pack team that falls just short of a playoff berth in 2023.

4	New England (7-10)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Miami (September 17)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at New York Giants (November 26)- Belichick’s arch nemesis takes down the Pats one more time.

Bottom Line: Some people are calling for a resurgence in New England, and while I hope they are right, I just don’t see it.  This team still lacks an elite quarterback and simply doesn’t have the playmakers to compete with the top teams in the league.  The Pats now also play in what is likely the toughest division in football, so I am predicting a second straight losing season in Foxboro. 

AFC North

1	Cincinnati (13-4)– division champion

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Kansas City (December 31)- I think the Bengals get revenge here for their controversial loss to the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship game.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Cleveland (September 10)- Burrow is supposed to play in week 1, but if he’s out of sync, then the Browns can spring the home upset like they did last season.

Bottom Line: The Bengals got off to a rough start in 2022 yet still finished as one of the league’s top teams.  Think how good they could be if they come out firing on all cylinders in 2023?  The Bengals should be favored in their first six games, and I think they will ride a hot start all the way to the # 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.  This team came really close to winning titles the past two seasons, and I think they may just finish the job this year.

2	Baltimore (10-7)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Cincinnati (November 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona (October 29)- The Cardinals are more talented than people realize, as I think they are definitely going to knock a team or two who they shouldn’t in Glendale this season.

Bottom Line: The Ravens added some nice weapons on the outside for Jackson to work with (Bekcham, Aghlor, Flowers), but this team still doesn’t have a marquee running back to help Lamar in the run game.  I think the Ravens will make it back to the playoffs again in 2023, but this division is too tough for me to call them to take much of a step forward this season. 

3	Pittsburgh (9-8)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Cincinnati (December 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. New England (December 7)- The Steelers are the antithesis of the Giants for Belichick, as he has owned Pittsburgh over the years.  

Bottom Line: The Steelers haven’t had a losing season in 20 years, and I think they extend that streak this season, but just just barely.  Pickett isn’t a terrible QB, but in this brutal division, he is by far the least talented of the bunch.  The Steeler defense and running game should keep them in a lot of games, but I just don’t think they have enough firepower to make it back to the playoffs in 2023. 

4	Cleveland (8-9)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Cincinnati (September 10)- Browns take advantage of a wounded Burrow at home, who may come in gimpy due to his recent calf injury.  

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Tennessee (September 24)

Bottom Line: Deshaun Watson is certainly the wildcard of quarterbacks in the league this season, as the Browns could be a Super Bowl contender. if he returns to his top form that we saw in Houston.  It is the Browns though, and they always find a way to disappoint (especially with a brutal schedule like they have in 2023), so I am calling for a much more modest 8-9 finish this season in Cleveland.

AFC South

1	Jacksonville (11-6)– division champion

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Buffalo (October 8)- the Jags have back to back overseas games this season, which should give them a huge advantage in this second one compared to the Bills who will be crossing the pond during game week.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Houston (November 26)- divisional games are always trick7, especially on the road, as the Jags split with the lowly Texans last season.

Bottom Line: The Jaguars seem to obviously be a team on the rise, as Lawrence took a huge step forward in year 2 of his NFL career.  However, this squad isn’t going to be able to sneak up on anyone like they did last season, and they also have major question marks along the offensive line. I do think they will continue their ascent in the league in 2023 and win this terrible division again, but I don’t think they are quite ready to contend for a league title just yet either.

2	Tennessee (9-8)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. LA Chargers (September 17)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Houston (December 31)- divisional games are always tricky, especially on the road, as the Titans split with the lowly Texans last season.

Bottom Line: The Titans probably overachieved in 2020, and 2021 when they won 11+ games and then underachieved last year when they went 7-11 and finished the season with seven consecutive losses.  As a result, I think they will progress back to the mean and finish around .500 this season.  As usual, the Titans will be a physical team that runs the ball well and plays good defense, but they continue to lack the quarterback play and playmaking receivers to become elite.  Now, that the Jaguars are becoming an upper echelon team in the league, this division will be harder and harder for the Titans to win again in the foreseeable future.

3	Houston (6-11)

Positional Strength: Linebackers

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Jacksonville (November 26)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Indianapolis (January 7)

Bottom Line: The Texans are obviously in rebuilding mode, as they will likely be starting a rookie quarterback in week 1.  Still, this team has enough young talent and a schedule easy enough to win more games that people expect and avoid the basement of this horrible division.

4	Indianapolis (4-13)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. New Orleans (October 29)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Houston (September 17)

Bottom Line: No team in this league has fallen off the proverbial cliff faster than the Colts who are in complete rebuilding mode after a four win season in 2022.  I am also not a big fan of their new quarterback Anthony Richardson, who never seemed to live up to the hype during his career at Florida.  Expect the Colts to be the bottom dwellers of, not just their division, but of the entire league this season. 

AFC West

1	Kansas City (12-5)– divisional champ

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Philadelphia (November 20)- big Super Bowl rematch during the weekend before Thanksgiving.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Green Bay (December 3)- big trap game for the Chiefs, as they have to go to Lambeau the week before a blockbuster matchup against Buffalo.

Bottom Line: The Chiefs have alternated 12 win seasons with 14 win seasons over the past four years and I am predicting that the pattern continues in 2023.  Kansas City once again enters the season as the Super Bowl favorites, but they have to have a postseason slip up at some point right?

2	LA Chargers (11-6)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Linebackers

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas City (January 7)- the Chargers narrowly lost to the Chiefs twice last year so they are due a home victory against their division rival.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Chicago (October 29)- seems like a letdown spot for the Chargers as they play at Kansas City the week before and at the Jets the week after. 

Bottom Line: The Chargers have been one of the league’s most talented up and coming teams  for the past few seasons now, yet they haven’t been able to put it all together and make a deep playoff run.  I think that changes in 2023, as the lightning bolts ride Justin Herbert and Austin Ekler all the way to the AFC title game.

3	Las Vegas (10-7)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Linebackers

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. LA Chargers (December 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. NY Jets (November 12) 

Bottom Line: The Raiders are the lone AFC team on my list of surprise teams in 2023, as Jimmy G is good enough to take advantage of Davante Adams’ playmaking ability on the outside and produce a potent passing attack.  They also boast a solid run game and stout offensive line.  Unfortunately, 10 wins in this brutal division/conference may not be enough to earn them a playoff bid. 

4	Denver (6-11)

Positional Strength: Defensive Backfield 

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. LA Chargers (December 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. NY Jets (November 12) 

Bottom Line: The Broncos were the disappointment team of the year in 2022, as they fell from perceived super bowl contenders, following the acquisition of Russell Wilson, to just a five win squad.  All eyes are on Wilson this year to see if last season was just an aberration or if it was a sign that he is no longer an upper echelon quarterback in the league.  I do think the Broncos will improve in 2023, but in this brutal division, I don’t see much opportunity for upward mobility.