Week 5 College Football (Against the Spread) Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident. Lines are based on the current spreads at the Caesars Sportsbook.

Arkansas (+6.5) vs. Texas A & M- 12:00– This neutral site game is always close so 6.5 points is too many to give in this matchup. I expect this one to come right down to the wire per usual.
Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn- 3:30– I am attending this game on Saturday afternoon so I hope I am hoping I am wrong here, but I don’t think the Tigers offense is good enough to keep this within two touchdowns.
Troy (+1.0) at Georgia State- 7:00– The powerhouses of the Sun Belt West (Troy and USA) have not lived up to expectations this year, but I still think they are the two most talented teams in the league and will prove it this weekend with road wins over the top two Sun Belt East foes.
Western Michigan (-1.0) vs. Ball State- 3:30– I think the Broncos are the slightly better team playing at home here.
Louisiana Tech (-1.0) at UTEP- (Fri) 8:00– The Bulldogs have not looked great this season, but UTEP is downright atrocious.
Sam Houston (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville State- (Th) 8:00– This is an interesting matchup between the two newest FBS teams who have both exceeded expectations this season. I like the Bearkats here playing at home with an elite defense.
Notre Dame (-5.5) at Duke- 7:30– The Blue Devils have been one of the best stories of the season so far, but I think they will get exposed on Saturday night against a Notre Dame team that comes into this game pissed off after their heartbreaking loss to Ohio State.
Missouri (-13.0) at Vandy- 4:00– The Commodores have already gotten blown out by more than 13 points against Kentucky and Wake Forest, and Mizzou may be more talented than both of those squads.
Utah (+3.5) at Oregon State- (Fri) 9:00– I don’t really understand this line. The Utes’ stout defense has been dominant all season, so I don’t think Oregon State’s run game will give them any problems. Meanwhile, the Beavers’ defense exposed last weekend in Pullman. Utah may drop a game at some point this season, but I don’t think it will be tomorrow night.
Memphis (-3.5) vs. Boise State- 4:00– The Broncos are off to a disappointing 2-2 start this season, and I don’t see them turning things around on this difficult road trip.

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