These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current lines at the Caesars Sportsbook.

South Florida (+3.0) at Navy- 3:30– Both of these teams have struggled mightily this season but USF has the better defense.

South Alabama (+3.0) at James Madison- 12:00– The powerhouses of the Sun Belt West (Troy and USA) have not lived up to expectations this year, but I still think they are the two most talented teams in the league and will prove it this weekend with road wins over the top two Sun Belt East foes.

Utah (+3.5) at Oregon State- (Fri) 9:00– I don’t really understand this line. The Utes’ stout defense has been dominant all season, so I don’t think Oregon State’s run game will give them any problems. Meanwhile, the Beavers’ defense exposed last weekend in Pullman. Utah may drop a game at some point this season, but I don’t think it will be tomorrow night.

NC State (+3.5) vs. Louisville- (Fri) 7:00– The Cardinals have started strong under new coach Brian Brohm, but they have yet to encounter a tough road test like they will have in Raleigh on Friday night. The Pack tend to find ways to beat similarly talented foes at home.

Chicago (+3.5) vs. Denver- (Sun) 1:00– Both of these teams are atrocious so I don’t think you can bet this game, but I think the home team has a good shot at winning this one.

Arkansas (+6.5) vs. Texas A & M- 12:00– This neutral site game is always close so 6.5 points is too many to give in this matchup. I expect this one to come right down to the wire per usual.

Sam Houston (+6.5) vs. Jacksonville State- (Th) 8:00– This is an interesting matchup between the two newest FBS teams who have both exceeded expectations this season. I like the Bearkats here playing at home with an elite defense.

Syracuse (+6.5) vs. Clemson- 12:00– The Orange always give the Tigers trouble, and this Clemson squad is more vulnerable than most of the ones that have struggled with Syracuse in the past.

Arizona (+18.5) vs. Washington- 10:00– If Arizona QB Jayden de Laura doesn’t play, then I obviously like this upset pick less, but I picked this upset in my preseason preview guide, and I am sticking to it. Washington has overachieved all season and is due a road letdown performance.

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Northwestern (+11.5) over Minnesota– my analysis for this game was spot-on!