These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident. Lines are based on the current spreads at the Caesars Sportsbook.

Alabama (-2.0) at Texas A & M- 3:30– The Tide are definitely not as talented as they have been in year’s past, but I don’t think A & M is that good either. This just seems like one of those big game spots where Saban’s group shows up and show out in an authoritative spot.

Texas State (+2.5) at UL-Lafayette- 3:30– The Bobcats have been one of the surprises of this season so far, and I think they are more than capable of going on the road and knocking off a mediocre Ragin’ Cajun squad.

FIU (+6.5) at New Mexico State- (Wed) 9:00–  I understand this is a long road trip, but I think the Panthers are the more talented team here. There is no reason they should be getting this many points from a team that lost to UMass at home already this season.

Central Michigan (-3.0) at Buffalo- 2:00– The Bulls squeaked by Akron last week, but the Chippewas are definitely a step up in competition and should have no problem covering this spread against a Buffalo squad that already lost to Fordham at home earlier this season.

Sam Houston State (+19.0) at Liberty- (Th) 7:00– When you see a 4-0 team playing an 0-4 team at home, you can usually assume that a beatdown is on the horizon. However, Sam Houston is not your average 0-4 team. They play stellar defense and had Jacksonville State beat last week before a final minute/overtime meltdown. In fact, the Bearkats held Air Force to 26 points less than any other opponent the Falcons have played this season. Sam Houston won’t get their maiden victory in Lynchburg on Thursday night but I do think they keep the game much closer than the experts think.

Oklahoma State (+11.0) vs. Kansas State- (Fri) 7:30– The Cowboys have been one of the biggest disappointments of the year so far, but they are always tough to play in Boone Pickens stadium. I just have the feeling that this may be the week that Gundy’s group puts it all together and takes a major step forward.

North Carolina (-8.0) vs. Syracuse- 3:30– The Orange were exposed in their one-sided loss to Clemson last weekend, and the Heels should score enough points at home to cover this number with ease.

Maryland (+20.0) at Ohio State- 12:00– In the preseason, I called for the Terps to be one of the nation’s top surprise teams and so far they have done just that. I think they will actually upset either Penn State and/or Michigan when they host each of them later this year, and while I don’t see them pulling off the upset in Columbus on Saturday, I think they will keep it close against an underwhelming Buckeye squad.

Arkansas State (+16.0) at Troy- 4:00– Thanks to my buddy Tripp who clued me in on the fact that the Red Wolves are red hot right now after making a quarterback change in favor of Jaylen Raynor. They probably can’t knock off Troy on the road, but they will score enough points to keep it close.

Navy (-6.0) vs. North Texas- 3:30– At first glance, I thought this spread was too high for a matchup between two equally mediocre AAC teams. Then I looked closer and saw that North Texas is dead last in the country in rushing defense. That doesn’t bode well for a road matchup against a triple option attack.