The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 14th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR.  This year, however, those extra bowl spots will go to teams who have six or more wins that are in FCS transitional status (Jacksonville State and/or James Madison).

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 59 teams on the list with 21 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 38 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 72 bowl eligible teams for 2023 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for Jacksonville State and James Madison to both garner bowl bids as well as a record eight 5-7 teams!   This list is updated through all games played on November 4th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (21):

Texas A & M- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miss. State, vs. Abilene Christian, at LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Auburn- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, vs. New Mexico State, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Western Kentucky- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, vs. Sam Houston, at FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90%

Clemson– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Tech, vs. North Carolina, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 87%

Bowling Green- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Toledo, at Western Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79%

Wisconsin- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, vs. Nebraska, at Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77%

Northern Illinois- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State, vs. Western Michigan, at Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%

Boise State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico, at Utah State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71%

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, at Troy, vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%

South Florida– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, at UTSA, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

Nebraska- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

Minnesota- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue, at Ohio State, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63%

Syracuse– Record:4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pitt, at Georgia Tech, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62%

South Alabama- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State, vs. Marshall, at Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%

Illinois- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Indiana, at Iowa, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Georgia Tech– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, vs. Syracuse, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

Iowa State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at BYU, vs. Texas, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Utah State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada, vs. Boise State, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, at Ohio, vs. Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

Maryland– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Nebraska, vs. Michigan, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

BYU-  Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (38):

Virginia Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Boston College, vs. NC State, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Appalachian State-  Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, at James Madison, vs.Georgia Southern ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Rice– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UTSA, at Charlotte, vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Washington State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at California, vs. Colorado, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Arkansas State-  Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Texas State, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45.5%

Eastern Michigan- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, vs. Akron, at Buffalo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Houston- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Oklahoma State, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Northwestern- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, vs. Purdue, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

San Jose State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Fresno State, vs. San Diego State, at UNLV; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

UCF– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Marshall-  Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40.5%

Colorado State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Diego State, vs. Nevada, at Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

Navy– Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UAB, vs. East Carolina, at SMU, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

Florida- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at LSU, at Missouri, vs. Florida State Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Florida Atlantic– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. East Carolina, vs. Tulane, at Rice; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

Arkansas-  Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, vs. FIU, vs. Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36%

Texas Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. UCF, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Mississippi State-  Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Texas A & M, vs. Southern Miss, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%

Wake Forest– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. NC State, at Notre Dame, at Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%

South Carolina- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Vanderbilt, vs. Kentucky, Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%

UAB– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Navy, vs. Temple, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

Indiana– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, vs. Michigan State, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 27%

Colorado- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona, at Washington State, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 26%

Western Michigan- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Central Michigan, at Northern Illinois, vs. Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%

Old Dominion-  Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Liberty, at Georgia Southern, vs. Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24%

Buffalo- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio, at Miami-OH, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

Florida International- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Middle Tennessee, at Arkansas, vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

Baylor– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, at TCU, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Charlotte– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, vs. Rice, at South Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13%

California- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State, at Stanford, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%

TCU- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas, vs. Baylor, at Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

North Texas– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at SMU, at Tulsa, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

San Diego State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Colorado State, at San Jose State, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Temple– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at South Florida, at UAB, vs. Memphis; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Stanford- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon State, vs. California, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Tulsa– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, vs. North Texas, at East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

New Mexico- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, at Fresno State, vs. Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Michigan State– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, at Indiana, vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1%

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Already Bowl Eligible (51): (1) Boston College, (2) Duke, (3) Florida State, (4) Louisville, (5) Miami-FL, (6) NC State, (7) North Carolina, (8) Memphis, (9) SMU, (10) Tulane, (11) UTSA, (12) Iowa, (13) Michigan, (14) Ohio State, (15) Penn State, (16) Rutges, (17) Kansas, (18) Kansas State, (19) Oklahoma, (20) Oklahoma State, (21) Texas, (22) West Virginia, (23) Liberty, (24) New Mexico State, (25) Miami-OH, (26) Ohio, (27) Toledo, (28) Air Force, (29) Fresno State, (20) UNLV, (31) Wyoming, (32) Arizona, (33) Oregon, (34) Oregon State, (35) UCLA, (36) Southern Cal, (37) Utah, (38) Washington, (39) Alabama, (40) Georgia, (41) Kentucky, (42) LSU, (43) Missouri, (44) Ole Miss, (45) Tennessee, (46) Coastal Carolina, (47) Georgia Southern, (48) Georgia State, (49) Texas State, (50) Troy, (51) Notre Dame

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (23):  (1) Pittsburgh, (2) Virginia, (3) East Carolina, (4) Purdue, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Jacksonville State, (7) Louisiana Tech, (8) Middle Tennessee, (9) Sam Houston State, (10) UTEP, (11) Akron, (12) Ball State, (13) Kent State, (14) Hawaii, (15) Nevada, (16) Arizona State, (17) Vanderbilt, (18) James Madison, (19) UL-Monroe, (20), Southern Miss, (21) Army, (22) UConn, (23) UMass

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Current Stats (133 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 51

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 21  (72)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 23

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 38 (61)