For the 14th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 4, 2023.

ACC- Florida State/Louisville (The Noles clinched a trip to Charlotte by virtue of their victory over Pitt on Saturday.  This will be Florida State’s first ACC title game since 2014.  The other ACC Championship game spot is wide open at this point.  Louisville is the front runner for it, as the Cards have one less loss than all of the teams nipping on their heels, but there are in fact, five teams (UNC, Duke, BC, Virginia Tech, and NC State) just a game behind Louisville for the second title game bid.  Therefore, if Louisville can beat Virginia and Miami then they will clinch the second spot in Charlotte; however, if the Cards lose one of those remaining games, it could get wild.  I do think Louisville ends up losing at Miami to set up a tiebreaker situation between multiple two loss teams.  However, I think when all is said and done, the only other two loss team besides Louisville will be the winner of the Virginia Tech/NC State game on November 18th, as I am calling for Duke to lose next weekend at UNC, UNC to lose the following weekend at Clemson and/or in the finale at NC State, and BC to lose any or all of their final three conference games.  Louisville has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Wolfpack and Hokies so that will catapult the Cards into Charlotte to face off against FSU.) 

Big 12– Oklahoma State/Oklahoma (Like the ACC, there are currently two frontrunners in the Big 12 title race with one or less conference losses (Texas and Oklahoma State), and then a slew of teams chasing them with two losses (Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, and Iowa State).  Thus, if OK State and Texas win out, then they will meet in Jerry’s World for the conference crown, but if one or both were to lose, then it could get wild.  I am going to predict one of the top two teams to win out, but it is not the one you might expect.  I think OK State actually has a better chance of running the table at this point, as they have the more manageable remaining schedule which features league bottom dwellers UCF, Houston, and BYU.  Meanwhile, I picked Texas to lose in Ames in the preseason and I am going to stick with that week 12 upset pick.  That will setup a tie between multiple two-loss teams, as I am picking Texas to ultimately end up tied for second place in the final league standings with Kansas State and Oklahoma.  Because not all of those teams played one another (K-State and Oklahoma don’t meet), then the tiebreaking metric that applies is the record against the highest placed common opponent in the standings.  If Kansas, West Virginia, and Iowa State, all end up with three losses, then each of the tied teams’ collective record against those three opponents will break the tie.  Texas’ record will be 1-1 in this scenario, Kansas State’s will be 1-1, and Oklahoma’s will be 2-1.  Therefore, I am calling for the Sooners will advance to play Oklahoma State in a bedlam rematch.  Got all of that?  If you do, I am impressed.)  

Big Ten East– Ohio State (Compared to the last two conference championship scenarios, the Big Ten East title race seems simple.  As expected, the three top dogs in this division, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, are the only ones in the running for this crown.  And while it could get complicated if all three end up in a tie for first, I don’t think that will happen.  I believe Michigan knocks off Penn State next week but then loses to Ohio State in the season finale, which will send the Buckeyes to Indianapolis for the first time in three seasons. )

Big Ten West– Iowa (It seems fitting that in the final year of Big Ten division play, the always inferior West division may be the worst it has ever been.  In fact, the frontrunner at this point, is a team (Iowa) that just fired its offensive coordinator and lost its starting quarterback to a season-ending injury over a month ago.  Nevertheless, the Hawkeyes stand alone (or maybe more applicably “hunch over alone” the rest of this terrible division.  In fact, Iowa’s three main challengers for the division crown (Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska) each lost games on Saturday to arguably the three of the worst teams in the league (Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan State).  I think the Hawkeyes win their next two home games over Illinois and Rutgers but then drop the season finale in Lincoln.  That will leave them with a 6-3 mark in conference play.  Meanwhile, Minnesota will lose at Ohio State, Wisconsin will lose at Minnesota, and Nebraska will lose at Wisconsin, which will give the Hawkeyes the outright Big Ten West championship and give them a ticket to Indianapolis to get bludgeoned to death by the winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game.) 

Pac-12– Washington/Oregon (The Pac-12 swan song has been the most fun conference title race in the country to follow so far this season, and I expect it to get even better in the final few weeks of the regular season.  Washington just needs to win two of their final three games to clinch a bid to Las Vegas, and while that won’t be easy with their remaining schedule, I am predicting they take care of business at home by beating Utah and Washington State in weeks 11 and 13 and earn one of the two conference title game bids.  Oregon is currently in second place in the Pac-12 standings, but the Ducks do not have the same margin of error as the Huskies, as Oregon has four two-loss challengers nipping at their heels in in Southern Cal, Utah, Oregon State, and Arizona.  However, Oregon’s last two real tests are both in Autzen Stadium (vs. Southern Cal and Oregon State), so I am going to call for the Ducks to win out and earn a rematch in Vegas against the Washington team that beat them in what was the game of the year so far in college football.)  

SEC East– Georgia (The Dawgs now have a two game lead over the rest of this division thanks to their hard fought victory over Missouri.  As a result, Georgia just needs to win one of their last two games to clinch another SEC East title.  And while neither game will be easy (vs. Ole Miss, at Tennessee), I don’t see any way that Georgia loses both of those contests.  This has been the least surprising division/conference title race in all of FBS this season.)  

SEC West– Alabama (Bama took a huge step towards getting back to Atlanta with their win over LSU on Saturday.  The Tide essentially have a two game lead over the field, as even though Ole Miss only trails Alabama by a single game in the division standings, the Tide own the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two.  That means that Bama just needs to beat either Auburn or Kentucky to clinch the SEC West or have Ole Miss lose one of their last two games against Georgia or Mississippi State.  Both of the Tide’s last two games could end up being tricky road contests, but even if Alabama were to somehow drop both of them, they would still win this division as long as the Dawgs take care of business at home against the Rebels next Saturday.)

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American–Tulane/Memphis (Even though this league is somewhat depleted this season due to the departures of UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, this has turned out to be a really interesting conference title race.  In fact, the AAC is the only conference in the country that features three teams that are still undefeated in league play (Tulane, SMU, and UTSA).  The Green Wave and the Roadrunners will square off in the season finale, but SMU doesn’t have to face either of these teams.  However, the Mustangs instead have to play a trick road game in two weeks against the other league title contender Memphis, who only sits just a game behind these three teams in the conference standings..  I am going to call for UTSA to lose to Tulane and SMU to lose to Memphis, which will leave the Green Wave as the lone unbeaten in American conference play.  This would also create a three-way tie between SMU, Memphis, and UTSA for the second spot in the conference championship game.  Because all three of these teams don’t  play one another this season, the CFP standings would be the next metric used to break this three-way tie.  However, I don’t believe any of these teams will end up in the final CFP regular season rankings, so a composite ranking of the Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe computer rankings would instead be used to break this tie.  In this case, Memphis’ rankings are currently 42, 35, 39, and 39, SMU’s rankings are currently 63, 48, 53, and 63, and UTSA’s rankings are 79, 58, 70, and 77, so Memphis would clearly take the second conference title game spot using this tiebreaking criteria.)

Conference USA– Liberty/Western Kentucky (No league has been gutted more by conference expansion than Conference USA, which has descended from a middle of the road Group of Five league to the undisputed worst conference in all of FBS.  With that being said, the Flames of Liberty have played really good football this season and have already clinched a spot in this year’s C-USA title game.  The other spot is really wide open as both Jacksonville State and New Mexico State are tied for second place in the league standings, but the Gamecocks are ineligible to play in the league title game due to their status as a team transitioning in from FCS.  You would thus think that New Mexico State might have the leg up on the field, but they still have to play two of the other top three teams in the conference in Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky.  I am predicting the Aggies falter during their long road trip to Bowling Green next Saturday, and then I think the Hilltoppers win their last two games after that to earn the second spot in this year’s conference championship game.  I hate to brag, but I did call for Liberty to meet Western Kentucky in the C-USA title game in my preseason predictions for this league.)

MAC East– Miami-OH (Despite the season-ending injury to star quarterback Brett Gabbert a couple of weeks ago, the Redhawks stand alone atop the MAC East standings as we head down the stretch of the season.  There are three teams that trail the Hawks by just a game, Bowling Green, Ohio, and Buffalo, but Miami has already beaten two of them (BG and Ohio) and they get to play the third (Buffalo) at home on November 15th.  As a result, I am calling for the Redhawks to win out and earn a bid to MAC Championship Game.) 

MAC West– Toledo (This has definitely been the most predictable conference title race in all of the Group of Five, as the Rockets were expected to dominate this division in 2023, and even though they have had to survive multiple scares, Toledo is still undefeated in league play.  The Rockets currently sit two games ahead of the rest of the division and just need to win two of their final three games to clinch the MAC East crown.  Toledo shouldn’t have too much problem doing that even though their last two games are against respectable opponents, Central Michigan and Bowling Green, on the road.  If Toledo had just found a way to knock off Illinois in their season opener, the Rockets would be unbeaten right now and the likely frontrunner for the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Six bowl.)   

Mountain West– Air Force/Fresno State (Despite their shocking non-conference loss on Saturday to Army, a team that just came off a home loss to UMass, the Falcons still sit alone atop the Mountain West standings at 5-0.  However, things could still get tough for Air Force down the stretch, as they end the season with matchups against 4-1 UNLV and an always treacherous trip to the Smurf Turf in Boise.  I am predicting the Falcons win the former and lose the latter, which would propel them to the Mountain West title game at 7-1.  Meanwhile, Fresno State is in prime position to grab the second bid to the conference title game, as they already own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the UNLV team they are tied with for second place and have a very manageable schedule down the stretch of the season.)

Sun Belt East– Georgia Southern (James Madison is far and away the best team in this division, but like Jacksonville State, the Dukes are ineligible for postseason play because they are still in their FBS transitional period.  As a result, this division race is wide open, as 5 of the 7 teams in the Sun Belt East are either tied or within a game of the “non-JMU” division lead.  There are three teams with two losses here and two teams with three losses so let’s analyze each.  First of all, I am going to call for both of the current three loss teams to lose one more league game, as I think George State will lose at Old Dominion and Old Dominion will lose at Georgia Southern.  Let’s then look at the two loss teams to see who is most likely to emerge victorious from that group.  Right now, Coastal Carolina is technically a half game up on the field with a 4-2 conference record, but they have to play JMU to end the season so another loss will likely be coming their way.  Georgia Southern also has two losses, but they have to play road games at both Marshall and App. State and I don’t see them winning both of those games.  The other current two loss team is App. State, who has the toughest remaining schedule that includes games at Georgia State, at James Madison, and against Georgia Southern.  Based on all of this, it seems very likely that we will have a tie between multiple three loss teams for this division title.  I am going to call for App to lose two of their final three games, while Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern just lose one.  That will create a two-way tie between the Chanticleers and the Eagles for the Sun Belt East title game bid, and Georgia Southern has the head-to-head tiebreaker between the two.) 

Sun Belt West– Troy (The Trojans have taken a commanding lead in this division title race by virtue of their win over South Alabama this past week. Troy now leads the entire field by at least a game and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over their two closest competitors, in Texas State and Arkansas State, two teams that have been on quite the Cinderella run in 2023. As a result, the Trojans just need to win two of their final three games to win the Sun Belt West title, and with a very manageable schedule in front of them, they should have no problem doing just that.)

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In addition to my usual analysis above of every conference/division title race, I am going to rank each race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 14 of the division/conference championship races:

1. Pac-12 (between Washington, Oregon, Southern Cal, Arizona, Oregon State, Utah, an UCLA)
2. Big 12 (between Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas Tech)
3. Big Ten East (between Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State)
4. ACC (one sport already cliched by Florida State; the other spot between Louisville, Georgia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, Boston College, NC State, Virginia Tech, and Miami-FL)
5. Big Ten West (between Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois, and Northwestern)
6. American (between Tulane, UTSA, SMU, Memphis, and Florida Atlantic)
7. Sun Belt East (between Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, Georgia State, Old Dominion, and technically still Marshall)
8. Mountain West (between Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Boise State, Wyoming, and San Jose State)
9. SEC East (between Georgia and Tennessee)
10. SEC West (between Alabama and Ole Miss)
11. MAC East (between Miami-OH, Ohio, Bowling, Green, and Buffalo)
12. Conference USA (one sport already cliched by Liberty; the other spot between New Mexico State and Western Kentucky)
13. Sun Belt West (between Troy, Arkansas State, Texas State, South Alabama, and UL-Lafayette)
14. MAC West (between Toledo, Central Michigan, and Northern Illinois)