For the 14th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 11, 2023.

ACC- Florida State/Louisville (The Noles have already booked their trip to Charlotte, and the Cards are very close to joining them.  All Louisville needs to do clinch a big do the AC title game is either beat Miami next week or have North Carolina lose to either at Clemson or at NC State in the final two weeks of the season.  Even if Louisville loses to the Canes and UNC wins out, the Cards could still win the tiebreaker over the Heels depending on how the rest of league play shake out.  The bottom line is that it is definitely looking like the Noles will be playing the Cards in Charlotte on December 2nd.) 

Big 12– Oklahoma State/Texas (This already wide open league race got even wilder thanks to Oklahoma State’s blowout loss to UCF on Saturday.  There are now four teams tied at 5-2 for second place in the league, all trailing the first place Longhorns by a single game.  I am still calling for Texas to lose to Iowa State on Saturday, but assuming they take care of Texas Tech at home in their regular season, they will at least guarantee themselves a share of the Big 12 title.  When analyzing the other four teams’ remaining schedules, it appears Oklahoma State and Oklahoma have the easiest paths forward as they just have to get by league bottom dwellers Houston , TCU, and BYU.  Iowa State has the most difficult path as they have to play Texas and Kansas State down the stretch.  Then you have Kansas State who has a tough but manageable schedule as they travel to Lawrence next Saturday and then host the Cyclones to end the season.  With so many teams in the mix, a lot of different things can happen still, but I am going to call for Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State to end in a three way tie for first with Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State all finishing a game back.  Because not all of those teams played one another (Texas and Oklahoma State don’t meet), then the tiebreaking metric that applies is the record against the highest placed common opponent in the standings.  If Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State, all end up with three losses, then each of the tied teams’ collective record against those three opponents will break the tie.  Texas’ record will be 2-1 in this scenario, Oklahoma State’s will be 2-1, and Oklahoma’s will be 1-1.  Therefore, I am currently calling for the Longhorns and Cowboys to meet in Dallas for the Big 12 title on December 2nd.  Simple, right?)  

Big Ten East– Ohio State (Compared to the last two conference championship scenarios, the Big Ten East title race seems simple.  By virtue of Michigan’s win over Penn State on Saturday, the annual rivalry game between the Wolverines and Buckeyes will once again serve as a de facto Big Ten East title game and a likely CFP play-in game as well.  In the preseason, I picked Ohio State to pull off the upset in the Big House, and I am sticking with it.)

Big Ten West– Iowa (It seems fitting that in the final year of Big Ten division play, the always inferior West division may be the worst it has ever been.  In fact, the clear frontrunner at this point, is a team (Iowa) that just fired its offensive coordinator and lost its starting quarterback to a season-ending injury over a month ago.  Nevertheless, the Hawkeyes lead the rest of the division by two games entering the final two weeks of the season.  All the Hawkeyes need to do is beat either Illinois or Nebraska to clinch the division crown, and I predict they will go ahead and take care of business against the Illini in Iowa City this weekend.  For the second straight season, it looks I will have correctly picked the winner of the Big Ten West in the preseason, which is not an easy feat given the parity in that division.) 

Pac-12– Washington/Oregon (The Pac-12 swan song has been the most fun conference title race in the country to follow so far this season, and it should get even better in the final few weeks of the regular season.  Washington just needs to win one of their final two games to clinch a bid to Las Vegas, and even if the Huskies somehow drop both, they could still get a bid to the title game depending on how the tiebreaker shakes out.  Oregon is currently in second place in the Pac-12 standings, but the Ducks do not have the same margin of error as the Huskies, as Oregon has a pair of two-loss challengers nipping at their heels in Oregon State and Arizona.  The Ducks can clinch a Pac-12 title game bid this weekend if they beat Arizona State while Oregon State loses to Washington and Arizona loses to Utah.  Otherwise, Oregon may need to knock off the Beavers in the Civil War to earn a trip to Vegas.  I think, either way, Oregon will find a way to beat the Beavers at home and advance to play Washington in an highly anticipated rematch of what was the game of the year so far in college football.)  

SEC East– Georgia (By virtue of the Dawgs’ dominant win over Ole Miss on Saturday and the Tide’s impressive win over Kentucky, both Georgia and Alabama are advancing to Atlanta to meet in another titanic battle for SECtitle on December 2nd.)  

SEC West– Alabama (See SEC East comment above)

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American–Tulane/Memphis (Even though this league is somewhat depleted this season due to the departures of UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, this has turned out to be a really interesting conference title race.  In fact, the AAC is the only conference in the country that features three teams that are still undefeated in league play (Tulane, SMU, and UTSA).  The Green Wave and the Roadrunners will square off in the season finale, but SMU doesn’t have to face either of these teams.  However, the Mustangs instead have to play a trick road game next week against the other league title contender in Memphis, who only sits just a game behind these three teams in the conference standings. I am going to call for UTSA to lose to Tulane and SMU to lose to Memphis, which will leave the Green Wave as the lone unbeaten in American conference play.  This would also create a three-way tie between SMU, Memphis, and UTSA for the second spot in the conference championship game.  Because all three of these teams don’t  play one another this season, the CFP standings would be the next metric used to break this three-way tie.  However, I don’t believe any of these teams will end up in the final CFP regular season rankings, so a composite ranking of the Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe computer rankings would instead be used to break this tie.  In this case, Memphis’ rankings are currently 33, 31, 28, and 32, SMU’s rankings are currently 54, 37, 44, and 52, and UTSA’s rankings are 66, 49, 53, and 68, so Memphis would clearly take the second conference title game spot using this tiebreaking criteria.)

Conference USA– Liberty/New Mexico State (Shout out to Jerry Kill at New Mexico State who last year took over a program that had won just three combined games over the course of the previous two seasons and has led them to a spot in the C-USA title game!  The Aggies pulled off a road upset of the powerhouse Western Kentucky Hilltoppers last Saturday to earn a rematch against an undefeated Liberty team who beat them by 16 earlier this year.)

MAC East– Miami-OH (By virtue of their win over Akron on Wednesday night, the Redhawks just need to to beat either Buffalo at home next week or Ball State on the road the following week to clinch their first MAC East title in four seasons.  In other words, one more win will send Miami to Detroit!) 

MAC West– Toledo (As a result of losses by both Northern Illinois and Western Michigan and their victory over Eastern Michigan on Wednesday night, the Rockets have clinched a berth into their second consecutive MAC Championship Game!)   

Mountain West– Air Force/Fresno State (What a difference two weeks makes, as Air Force has gone from the undefeated favorite to win the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Six Bowl to a two-loss team that is coming off consecutive losses to squad they were expected to dominate.  As a result, the Falcons are in real danger of not even making it to the Mountain West title game, as they finish the season with games against league juggernauts UNLV and Boise State. I am predicting the Falcons win the former of those contests and then lose the latter, which would leave them in a precarious position with a 6-2 record.  I believe the other current league leader in UNLV will also finish 6-2, and Fresno State ends up 6-2 as well by winning its final two games against much easier competition.  In this situation, the tiebreaker would be each team’s head-to-head record against one another which would put Air Force and Fresno State into the game.)

Sun Belt East– Coastal Carolina (James Madison is far and away the best team in this division, but the Dukes are ineligible for postseason play because they are still in their FBS transitional period.  As a result, this division race is wide open, as 4 of the 7 teams in the Sun Belt East are either tied or within a game of the “non-JMU” division lead.  There are two teams with two losses here and another two with three losses, so let’s analyze each.  First of all, I am going to call for both of the current three-loss teams to each lose one more league game, as I think George Southern will lose at App. State and Old Dominion will lose at Georgia Southern. That leaves us with a battle between the two Sun Belt East juggernauts who are currently leading the division in Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State.  I think both of these squads will also pick up another loss in league play, as they both have to play James Madison down the stretch of the season.  As a result, I believe it will all come down to the fact that the Chants have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Mountaineers by virtue of their road upset over App.  earlier this season.  If in fact, Coastal can earn trip to the Sun Belt title game, you got to give first year coach Tim Beck a ton of credit for this midseason turnaround.  When I saw Coastal play in-person at the beginning of the season, they looked like a mess offensively and defensively and that was before the injuries to Grayson McCall emerged.) 

Sun Belt West– Troy (The Trojans have officially clinched the Sun Belt West title as result of their dominant road win over UL-Monroe on Saturday.)

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In addition to my usual analysis above of every conference/division title race, I am going to rank each race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 14 of the division/conference championship races:

1. Pac-12 (between Washington, Oregon, Southern Cal, Arizona, Oregon State, and Utah)
2. Big 12 (between Texas, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas Tech)
3. Big Ten East (between Ohio State and Michigan)
4. ACC (one sport already cliched by Florida State; the other spot is between Louisville and North Carolina)
5. Big Ten West (between Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Illinois, and Northwestern)
6. American (between Tulane, UTSA, SMU, and Memphis)
7. Sun Belt East (between Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, Georgia Southern, and Old Dominion)
8. Mountain West (between Air Force, Fresno State, UNLV, Boise State, Wyoming, and San Jose State)
9. MAC East (between Miami-OH, Ohio, Bowling, Green, and Buffalo)
10. Conference USA (one title game spot already clinched by Liberty; the other spot already clinched by New Mexico State)
11. Sun Belt West (already clinched by Troy) 
12. SEC West (already clinched by Alabama)
13. SEC East (already clinched by Georgia)
14. MAC West (already clinched by Toledo)