The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 14th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR.  This year, however, those extra bowl spots will go to teams who have six or more wins that are in FCS transitional status (Jacksonville State and/or James Madison).

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 24 teams on the list with 10 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 14 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 77 bowl eligible teams for 2023 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for Jacksonville State and James Madison to both garner bowl bids as well three 5-7 teams.   This list is updated through all games played on November 18th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (10):

Northern Illinois- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule:, at Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77% (previous odds: 73%, 62%)

Utah State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% (previous odds: 54%, 69%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 70%, 68%)

South Florida– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% (previous odds: 65%, 66%)

Syracuse– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 62%, 64%)

UCF– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 41%, 58%)

Illinois- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 60%, 65%)

Rice– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 47%, 40%)

Marshall-  Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 40.5%, 55%)

Colorado State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 40%, 48%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (14):

Navy– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at SMU, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 39%, 46%)

Virginia Tech– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 49%, 59%)

Nebraska- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 64%, 49%)

Old Dominion-  Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 24%, 22%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 63%, 47%)

Eastern Michigan- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Buffalo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 45%, 42%)

South Carolina- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 30%, 33%)

Mississippi State-  Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule:  vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 34%, 31%)

California- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 12%, 29%)

Florida- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% (previous odds: 38%, 36%)

Central Michigan- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 26% (previous odds: 53%, 37%)

BYU-  Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24% (previous odds: 51%, 32%)

TCU- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 10%, 9%)

Washington State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19% (previous odds: 46%, 12%)

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Already Bowl Eligible (67): (1) Boston College, (2) Duke, (3) Florida State, (4) Louisville, (5) Miami-FL, (6) NC State, (7) North Carolina, (8) Memphis, (9) SMU, (10) Tulane, (11) UTSA, (12) Iowa, (13) Michigan, (14) Ohio State, (15) Penn State, (16) Rutges, (17) Kansas, (18) Kansas State, (19) Oklahoma, (20) Oklahoma State, (21) Texas, (22) West Virginia, (23) Liberty, (24) New Mexico State, (25) Miami-OH, (26) Ohio, (27) Toledo, (28) Air Force, (29) Fresno State, (20) UNLV, (31) Wyoming, (32) Arizona, (33) Oregon, (34) Oregon State, (35) UCLA, (36) Southern Cal, (37) Utah, (38) Washington, (39) Alabama, (40) Georgia, (41) Kentucky, (42) LSU, (43) Missouri, (44) Ole Miss, (45) Tennessee, (46) Coastal Carolina, (47) Georgia Southern, (48) Georgia State, (49) Texas State, (50) Troy, (51) Notre Dame, (52) Bowling Green (previous odds: 79%), (53) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (54) Clemson (previous odds: 87%), (55) Texas A & M (previous odds: 99%), (56) Iowa State (previous odds: 55%), (57) Maryland (previous odds: 52%), (58) Appalachian State (previous odds: 48%), (59) Northwestern (previous odds: 43%, 54%), (60) Arkansas State (previous odds: 45.5%, 38%), (61) Western Kentucky (previous odds: 90%, 84%), (62) South Alabama (previous ods: 61%, 65%), (63) Texas Tech (previous odds: 35%, 53%), (64) Boise State (previous odds: 71%, 72%), (65) Wisconsin (previous odds: 77%, 73%), (66) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 59%, 63%), (67) San Jose State (previous odds: 42%, 56%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (42):  (1) Pittsburgh, (2) Virginia, (3) East Carolina, (4) Purdue, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Jacksonville State, (7) Louisiana Tech, (8) Middle Tennessee, (9) Sam Houston State, (10) UTEP, (11) Akron, (12) Ball State, (13) Kent State, (14) Hawaii, (15) Nevada, (16) Arizona State, (17) Vanderbilt, (18) James Madison, (19) UL-Monroe, (20), Southern Miss, (21) Army, (22) UConn, (23) UMass, (24) Buffalo (previous odds: 20%), (25) North Texas (previous odds: 6%), (26) North Texas (previous odds: 36%), (27) UAB (previous odds: 29%), (28) Indiana (previous odds: 27%), (29) Michigan State (previouds odds: 0.1%), (30) Baylor (previous odds: 15%), (31) Charlotte (previous odds: 13%), (32) San Diego State (previous odds: 5%), (33) Temple (previosu odds: 4%), (34) Stanford (3%), (35) Tulsa (previous odds: 2%), (36) New Mexico (previous odds: 1%), (37) Western Michigan (previous odds: 25%, 34%), (38) Colorado (previous odds: 26%, 8%), (39) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 37%, 21%), (40) Houston (previous odds: 44%, 28%), (41) Wake Forest (previous odds: 32%, 3%), (42) Florida International (previous odds: 18%, 1%)

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Current Stats (133 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 67

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 10  (77)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 42

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 14 (56)