For the 14th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 18, 2023.

ACC- Florida State/Louisville (It will be the Cardinals vs. the Noles for the ACC Championship in Charlotte on December 2nd!) 

Big 12– Texas/Oklahoma State (This league title race has seemingly whittled itself down to four teams as Texas stands alone atop the standings with one loss, and Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State all trail the Horns by a single game.  Technically three-loss teams, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas Tech, are still in the mix for the title game, but they would need the Wildcats, Sooners, and Cowboys to all get upset next weekend to get back in the mix, and I don’t see that happening.  In fact, the four top teams in this league will all be heavily favored to win their respective regular season finales next Saturday, and if all four come out victorious, then Texas and Oklahoma State will meet in the title game.  If, however, some teams win and others lose, things will get dicey.  To simplify matters, however, just remember that if Oklahoma State and Texas both win next week, in home games against inferior league opponents, then the two squads will meet in Jerry’s World on December 2nd for the Big 12 title.)

Big Ten East– Ohio State (Compared to the other two power 5 conference championship scenarios that are still out there in the Big 12 and Pac-12, the Big Ten East title race is simple.  The annual rivalry game between the Wolverines and Buckeyes next Saturday will once again serve as a de facto Big Ten East title game and a likely CFP play-in game as well.  In the preseason, I picked Ohio State to pull off the upset in the Big House, and I am sticking with it.)

Big Ten West– Iowa (The Hawkeyes have officially clinched the dumpster fire that is the Big Ten West.  For the second straight season, I have correctly picked the winner of this division in the preseason, which is not an easy feat given the parity within it.) 

Pac-12– Washington/Oregon (The Pac-12 swan song has been the most fun conference title race in the country to follow throughout the season, and it is still not decided, as Washington, Oregon, and most shockingly Arizona are all still in the mix.  First of all, the Huskies clinched the first spot in the Pac-12 title game by virtue of their hard fought win over Oregon State on Saturday night.  Oregon is in the driver’s seat for the second bid as they are a game ahead of Arizona in the current league standings.  However, if Oregon State knocks off Oregon on the road next week and Arizona beats Arizona State, it will actually be Jedd Fisch’s Wildcats who will earn the right to play Washington for a Pac-12 Championship on December 1st.  The Wildcats’ stunning ascent to the upper echelon of the Pac-12  has been nothing short of incredible when you consider how bad this program was just 2-3 years ago.  It  has appeared for weeks that Oregon and Washington are on a collision course for the title game, but Arizona has come out of literally nowhere to potentially throw a wrench in those plans.)

SEC East– Georgia 

SEC West– Alabama 

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American–Tulane/SMU (I am not sure when the last time this  happened was, but as we enter the final weekend of the regular season, three teams from the same conference are still unbeaten in league play.  That will all change on Black Friday, as UTSA travels to New Orleans to play the Green Wave.  The winner of that will obviously earn a spot in the American title game, and if SMU can knock off Navy at home the following day, they will join them.  When conferences began ditching divisions a few years ago, this was the dream scenario they envisioned, as the AAC may very well get a matchup of unbeaten conference foes in their league title game.  If SMU were to lose, that would obvious muddy things up, as then we would have a tie for the second spot in the title game between two teams that didn’t play in the regular season.  In that case, a composite ranking of the Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe computer rankings would be used to break this tie.  Tulane’s respective rankings in each of these metrics are currently 23, 18, 13, and 17, SMU’s rankings are currently 54, 33, 37, and 35, and UTSA’s rankings are 66, 47, 49, and 63.  This means that Tulane would win a head-to-head tiebreaker over SMU if it came down to it, and SMU would win the head-to-head tiebreaker over UTSA.  Therefore, if Tulane beats SMU on Friday as they will be favored to do, we are all but guaranteed an SMU/Tulane title game, regardless of how SMU plays Navy.  If however, UTSA upsets Tulane, then SMU will need to beat Navy to avoid the tiebreaker for second place with the Green Wave.  This latter scenario would make me look pretty good, as I predicted SMU to play UTSA in this year’s AAC title game in the preseason.)

Conference USA– Liberty/New Mexico State (Shout out to Jerry Kill at New Mexico State who last year took over a program that had won just three combined games over the course of the previous two seasons and has led them to the C-USA title game as well as a shocking upset of Auburn!)

MAC East– Miami-OH (The Redhawks are headed back to Detroit for their first conference championship game since 2019!) 

MAC West– Toledo 

Mountain West– UNLV/Boise State (There are four teams left in the Mountain West championship race, and they are all playing each other this weekend.  The first place team, UNLV, hosts one of the three teams tied for second, San Jose State, on Friday afternoon at 3:00, and then one hour later, the other two teams tied for second place, Boise and Air Force, will face off on the Smurf Turf.  UNLV clinches a title game berth with a victory, and if the Rebels win as they are expected to, then the Boise State/Air Force matchup will be a conference championship play-in game.  However, if San Jose State beats UNLV, then things get a little more complicated as there will be a three-way tie for first place in the league between UNLV, San Jose State, and the Boise/Air Force winner.  In this situation, then according to the official Mountain West tiebreaker procedures, a composite average of “selected computer rankings” will serve as the applicable tiebreaker.  I am not really sure why the league doesn’t list out what ranking systems they use to create that “composite average”, but I am going to assure that it is similar to the aforementioned AAC who uses  a composite ranking of the Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe computer rankings to break similar ties.  UNLV’s respective rankings in each of these metrics are currently 34, 33, 24, and 23 (average = 28.5), Air Force’s rankings are currently 45, 47, 42, and 52 ( average = 46.5), Boise State’s rankings are 81, 72, 60, and 62 (average = 68.75), and San Jose State’s rankings are 75, 70, 68, and 64 (average = 69.25).  Based on this data, I think it is safe to say that UNLV will still qualify for the Mountain West title game even if they lose on Saturday.  In addition, Air Force seems like a clear second place in these numbers, so a win over Boise would also catapult them into the title game.  The most intriguing and controversial scenario will occur if Boise beats Air Force and San Jose State upsets UNLV.  In this situation, UNLV would get one title game spot, as discussed above, and the other spot would come down to a very close and very mysterious computer ranking comparison between San Jose State and Boise State.  I am going to call for Boise and UNLV to both win next weekend, and set up a matchup between the Broncos and Rebels the following Saturday.  Interestingly enough, Boise was the team I predicted to finish first in this league in the preseason, and UNLV was the team I picked to finish dead last!)

Sun Belt East– Appalachian State (As a result of their stunning road upset over previously unbeaten James Madison, the Mountaineers are in great shape to capture this “division title” and advance to the Sun Belt title game.  Keep in mind that the real Sun Belt East champions will still likely be James Madison, but because the Dukes are ineligible for postseason play due to their FBS transitional status, the next best team from the division will advance to the championship game to play Troy.  Right now, Coastal Carolina and App State are tied for this spot, and the Chants have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Mountaineers.  However, Coastal has to host James Madison next Saturday, and I don’t see the Dukes losing two games in a row within this division.  App has the significantly easier final game as they get to host Georgia Southern who enters the game on a three game losing streak after an initial hot start to theit season.  Taking all of this into account, I am calling for App to win next Saturday and Coastal to lose, which would send the Mountaineers back to the conference title game for the first time in four years.  One other scenario to throw at you is that if both Coastal and App lose and Old Dominion beats Georgia State in their tricky season finale, then the Monarchs, Mountaineers, and Chants will all end up tied atop the standings with a 1-1 record against one another.  The tiebreaker which would then be applied would be record against next best team in the division, which would be Georgia Southern in this scenario.  Old Dominion beat the Eagles, whereas, Coastal and App lost to GSU, so the Monarchs will advance to the Sun Belt Championship Game, if they win next Saturday and both App and Coastal lose. )  

Sun Belt West– Troy 

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In addition to my usual analysis above of every conference/division title race, I am going to rank each race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 14 of the division/conference championship races:

1. Pac-12 (one spot already clinched by Washington; the other between Oregon and Arizona)
2. Big 12 (between Texas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Kansas State, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Texas Tech)
3. Big Ten East (between Ohio State and Michigan)
4. American (between Tulane, UTSA, and SMU)
5. Sun Belt East (between Coastal Carolina, Appalachian State, and Old Dominion)
6. Mountain West (between Air Force, UNLV, Boise State, and San Jose State)
7. Big Ten West (already clinched by Iowa)
8. ACC (one sport already cliched by Florida State; the other spot already clinched by Louisville)
9. MAC East (already clinched by Miami-OH)
10. Conference USA (one title game spot already  clinched by Liberty; the other spot already clinched by New Mexico State)
11. Sun Belt West (already clinched by Troy) 
12. SEC West (already clinched by Alabama)
13. SEC East (already clinched by Georgia)
14. MAC West (already clinched by Toledo)