The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 14th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR.  This year, however, those extra bowl spots will go to teams who have six or more wins that are in FCS transitional status (Jacksonville State and/or James Madison).

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As you can see below, Navy is the only team still on the list because they still have one regular season game to play against Army in two weeks.  However, because that game takes place after bowl selections are made next weekend, then they will not be eligible to receive a bowl bid because they will not yet reached the magic six win plateau.  As you can see, we are going to end up with  79 bowl eligible teams for 2023 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so Jacksonville State and James Madison will both garner bowl bids, as well one 5-7 team.  That 5-7 team will be Minnesota based on the fact they have the best APR (# 8 in the country) of all FBS teams with five wins.  This list is updated through all games played on November 25th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (0):

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (1):

Navy– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at SMU, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 39%, 46%, 49%)

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Already Bowl Eligible (79): (1) Boston College, (2) Duke, (3) Florida State, (4) Louisville, (5) Miami-FL, (6) NC State, (7) North Carolina, (8) Memphis, (9) SMU, (10) Tulane, (11) UTSA, (12) Iowa, (13) Michigan, (14) Ohio State, (15) Penn State, (16) Rutges, (17) Kansas, (18) Kansas State, (19) Oklahoma, (20) Oklahoma State, (21) Texas, (22) West Virginia, (23) Liberty, (24) New Mexico State, (25) Miami-OH, (26) Ohio, (27) Toledo, (28) Air Force, (29) Fresno State, (20) UNLV, (31) Wyoming, (32) Arizona, (33) Oregon, (34) Oregon State, (35) UCLA, (36) Southern Cal, (37) Utah, (38) Washington, (39) Alabama, (40) Georgia, (41) Kentucky, (42) LSU, (43) Missouri, (44) Ole Miss, (45) Tennessee, (46) Coastal Carolina, (47) Georgia Southern, (48) Georgia State, (49) Texas State, (50) Troy, (51) Notre Dame, (52) Bowling Green (previous odds: 79%), (53) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (54) Clemson (previous odds: 87%), (55) Texas A & M (previous odds: 99%), (56) Iowa State (previous odds: 55%), (57) Maryland (previous odds: 52%), (58) Appalachian State (previous odds: 48%), (59) Northwestern (previous odds: 43%, 54%), (60) Arkansas State (previous odds: 45.5%, 38%), (61) Western Kentucky (previous odds: 90%, 84%), (62) South Alabama (previous ods: 61%, 65%), (63) Texas Tech (previous odds: 35%, 53%), (64) Boise State (previous odds: 71%, 72%), (65) Wisconsin (previous odds: 77%, 73%), (66) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 59%, 63%), (67) San Jose State (previous odds: 42%, 56%), (68) Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 45%, 42%, 44%), (69) Utah State (previous odds: 54%, 69%, 68%), (70) UCF (previous odds: 41%, 58%, 56%), (71) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%, 62%, 77%), (72) Rice (previous odds: 47%, 40%, 54%), (73) Syracuse (previous odds: 62%, 64%, 60%), (74) Old Dominion (previous odds: 24%, 22%, 46%), (75) Virginia Tech (previous odds: 49%, 59%, 48%), (76) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 70%, 68%, 65%), (77) Marshall (previous odds: 40.5%, 55%, 53%), (78) South Florida (previous odds: 65%, 66%, 63%), (79) California (previous odds: 12%, 29%, 34%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (53):  (1) Pittsburgh, (2) Virginia, (3) East Carolina, (4) Purdue, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Jacksonville State, (7) Louisiana Tech, (8) Middle Tennessee, (9) Sam Houston State, (10) UTEP, (11) Akron, (12) Ball State, (13) Kent State, (14) Hawaii, (15) Nevada, (16) Arizona State, (17) Vanderbilt, (18) James Madison, (19) UL-Monroe, (20), Southern Miss, (21) Army, (22) UConn, (23) UMass, (24) Buffalo (previous odds: 20%), (25) North Texas (previous odds: 6%), (26) North Texas (previous odds: 36%), (27) UAB (previous odds: 29%), (28) Indiana (previous odds: 27%), (29) Michigan State (previouds odds: 0.1%), (30) Baylor (previous odds: 15%), (31) Charlotte (previous odds: 13%), (32) San Diego State (previous odds: 5%), (33) Temple (previosu odds: 4%), (34) Stanford (3%), (35) Tulsa (previous odds: 2%), (36) New Mexico (previous odds: 1%), (37) Western Michigan (previous odds: 25%, 34%), (38) Colorado (previous odds: 26%, 8%), (39) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 37%, 21%), (40) Houston (previous odds: 44%, 28%), (41) Wake Forest (previous odds: 32%, 3%), (42) Florida International (previous odds: 18%, 1%), (43) Mississippi State (previous odds: 34%, 31%, 36%), (44) Nebraska  (previous odds: 64%, 49%, 47%), (45) TCU (previous odds: 10%, 9%, 21%), (46) Central Michigan (previous odds: 53%, 37%, 26%), (47) Minnesota (previous odds: 63%, 47%, 45%), (48) Illinois (previous odds: 60%, 65%, 55%), (49) BYU (previous odds: 51%, 32%, 24%), (50) Washington State (previous odds: 46%, 12%, 19%), (51) Florida (previous odds: 38%, 36%, 30%), (52) South Carolina (previous odds: 30%, 33%, 40%), (53) Colorado State (previous odds: 40%, 48%, 52%)

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Final Stats (133 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 79

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 0  (79)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 53

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 1 (54)

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Top 5-7 APR Teams:

1. Minnesota (8)
2. Mississippi State (19)