Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 18th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the top two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for Conference USA in 2024, which is now firmly established as the worst conference in FBS, a fact that will hurt the league champion’s chances of making the 12 first-ever team playoff this fall.

1	Liberty (13-0, 8-0)– conference champion

Last Year’s Record: 13-1 (My 2023 prediction: 10-3)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Appalachian State (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: None

Bottom Line: Last year, I picked Liberty as the surprise winner of Conference USA, as of the other other experts thought they would take a step back after the departure of Hugh Freeze and Malik Willis. Then, not only did Liberty win the conference, but they actually ran the table in the regular season. Unfortunately, the Flames ended their 2023 campaign by getting destroyed by Oregon in the Fiesta, which may come back to haunt in 2024. Liberty is once again setup to run the table, as they return their quarterback, top 2 rushers, and 12 other starters on both sides of the ball, but their schedule is so weak that I believe they may get excluded from the playoff even if they finish a perfect 13-0 again. Keep in mind, the Flames needed Tulane to lose the American Athletic title game to back into the Group of Five New Year’s Six spot last year, and I don’t think the playoff committee is going to want to set a precedent of rewarding teams that play cupcake schedules in this new format. Therefore, I think as long as there is a one loss conference champion in one four other Group of Five conferences, then Liberty will be getting left out of the 2024 College Football Playoff, even if they win all of their games. We thought that this 12 team playoff format would eliminate the absurdity of teams running the table and never getting a chance to play for a national title, but I am predicting a snub of an unbeaten Liberty squad in 2024.

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2	Western Kentucky (7-6, 6-2)- conference runner-up

Last Year’s Record: 8-5 (My 2023 prediction: 8-5, I was dead on with the Hilltoppers last year!)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Jacksonville State (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Sam Houston State (October 16)

Bottom Line: The Hilltoppers will light up the scoreboards again in 2024, but the defense may be worse than last year’s unit that ranked 108th nationally. As a result, Western Kentucky is going to have to find a way to win a lot of shootouts to make 2024 a memorable season in Bowling Green.

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3	FIU (8-4, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Indiana (August 31)- this would be huge early season shocker!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UTEP (October 16)

Bottom Line: The Panthers are one of my top surprises teams in 2024, as I am calling for this year’s FIU squad to to have a breakthrough year in Mike MacIntyre’s third year at the helm. The key will be an experienced and talented offense that returns eight starters including their top four rushers, two of their top three pass catchers, and a QB that started last year as a freshman.

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4	Sam Houston (5-7, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 3-9, another stellar prediction from me!)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Western Kentucky (October 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Hawaii (September 14)

Bottom Line: The Bearkats lost so many close games last year (2-6 in one score games) that they very easily could have had a winning record in 2023. I think they have much better luck in 2024, but the schedule is too tough for me to call for them to finish above .500 this season. Either way, Sam Houston is still in transitional status is ineligible for a bowl game unless there aren’t enough bowl eligible teams in the rest of the FBS to fill all of the spots.

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5	Louisiana Tech (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Tulsa (September 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Sam Houston (October 29)

Bottom Line: The Bulldogs are one of those teams I consistently overrate, as their recruiting rankings and other computer numbers suggest they should be better than they have been. I may be overrating them one more time in 2024, but I just feel like their too talented and too well-coached not to have a breakthrough year this season, especially when given a favorable schedule that does not feature Liberty on it.

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6	UTEP (5-7, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. FIU (October 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at New Mexico State (November 30)

Bottom Line: I love the Scotty Walden (pictured above) hire for the Miners, as he has certainly injected some much needed energy into this program. They just don’t have enough talent or experience to go bowling quite yet.

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6	Jacksonville State (4-8, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 3-9)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. FIU (November 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Sam Houston (November 23)

Bottom Line: The Gamecocks greatly exceeded my expectations for them in 2023 as they produced a bowl win in their first season as an FBS program. They may very well surprise me again in 2024, but this team lost too much from last year’s squad, including their starting quarterback, leading rusher, top two pass catchers, and five of their top six tacklers, for them to replicate their 2023 success.

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8	Middle Tennessee (3-9, 2-8)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. New Mexico State (November 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UTEP (November 2)

Bottom Line: The Blue Raiders are in complete rebuild mode after the departure of the entire coaching staff and most of last year’s offensive and defensive contributors.

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9	New Mexico State (3-9, 1-7)

Last Year’s Record: 10-5 (My 2023 prediction: 6-7)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UTEP (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Louisiana Tech (October 15)

Bottom Line: Last year, the Aggies were one of the best stories in all of college football, as Jerry Kill took them to the conference title game and a bowl appearance in his final season at the helm. This year, expect some growing pains in Las Cruces as a new coaching staff must break in a new quarterback and eight new starters on defense.

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10	Kennesaw State (1-11, 0-8)

Last Year’s Record: 3-6 (My 2023 prediction: N/A)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UT-Martin (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Sam Houston (November 16)

Bottom Line: It is always difficult to gauge how these FCS transitional teams will perform in their inaugural season in FBS. Jacksonville State and James Madison both did much better than anyone expected and had immediate success. I don’t expect the Owls to produce to have those kind of results in 2024 though, as they are coming off a 3-6 season as an FCS Independent and also have to replace their starting quarterback and top two defenders.

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