Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 18th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Mountain West Conference in 2024, which has emerged as the preeminent conference in the far west after the death of the Pac-12.

1	Boise State (11-2, 7-0)– conference champion

Last Year’s Record: 8-6 (My 2023 prediction: 12-1)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oregon State (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Washington State (September 28)

Bottom Line: As a result of the Mountain West’s scheduling agreement with the two Pac-12 orphans, Washington State and Oregon State, the league now only plays seven conference games. I think the Broncos sweep all seven of those contests, but some early season non-conference struggles, caused by a tough schedule and a change in coordinators, will prevent them from making it to the College Football Playoff in 2024.

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2	Fresno State (10-3, 6-1)– conference runner-up

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at UCLA (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Air Force (November 9)

Bottom Line: I am predicting that the Bulldogs will ride a favorable conference schedule that does not feature Boise and a prolific offense all the way to a 10 win season and the Mountain West title game.

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3	Wyoming (6-6, 5-2)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Air Force (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Colorado State (November 16)

Bottom Line: The loss of head coach Craig Bohl can’t be overstated, as he did tremendous work with this program. New coach Jay Sawvel is a Bohl disciple though that should be able to ride the same physicality that this program is known for back to a fourth straight bowl game.

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4	Air Force (9-3, 5-2)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Air Force (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Colorado State (November 16)

Bottom Line: Troy Calhoun has built one of the most consistent winners in all of the Group of Five in Colorado Springs, as this program has won at least nine games in each of the past four full seasons it has played. This year, they lose nine offensive starters, but I think Calhoun can still get this team back to the nine win mark thanks to a favorable schedule that features only one game against a Power 4 foe and doesn’t include Boise.

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4	Utah State (7-5, 5-2)

Last Year’s Record: 6-7 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. San Diego State (November 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Wyoming (October 26)

Bottom Line: The summer firing of Blake Anderson is certainly going to be a distraction for this program, especially early in the season. However, the Aggies still have enough offensive firepower, with eight returning starters and the addition of former Iowa QB Spencer Petras, to make a fourth straight bowl appearance in 2024.

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6	Colorado State (6-6, 4-3)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2023 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Wyoming (November 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Utah State (November 30)

Bottom Line: Jay Norvell is clearly building a program that is on the rise back to prominence in the Mountain West after some rough seasons under former coaches Steve Addazio and Mike Bobo. This season, I am calling for the Rams to make a bowl appearance for the first time in seven years thanks to an experienced roster that returns 14 starters including its starting quarterback, best past catcher, and three of its top four tacklers.

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6	UNLV (6-6, 4-3)

Last Year’s Record: 9-5 (My 2023 prediction: 3-9)- needless to say, the Rebels exceeded my expectations for them last season!

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Syracuse (October 5)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Utah State (October 12)

Bottom Line: Barry Odom had a magical first season in Vegas, as he took a team that had not been to a bowl game in ten seasons all the way to the Mountain West Championship Game. Cinderella seasons are hard to replicate though because typically your best players graduate or transfer (Rebels lose starting QB and leading rusher) and the schedule isn’t as favorable (Rebels play four teams that were in the Power 5 last season as well as the top two teams in the Mountain West). With that being said, I still thinks the Rebels will find a way to make consecutive bowl appearances for the first-time in school history this year.

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8	Hawaii (5-7, 2-5)

Last Year’s Record: 5-8 (My 2023 prediction: 5-8)- another spot on projection!

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at San Diego State (October 5)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. New Mexico (November 30)

Bottom Line: The combination of the Rainbow Warriors’ defensive woes (109th nationally in scoring D last year) and scheduling woes (Hawaii scheduled two FCS foes so the need 7 wins to be come bowl eligible) will prevent Timmy Chang from reaching his first bowl game as head coach of his alma mater.

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9	San Diego State (5-7, 2-5)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Washington State (October 26)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Hawaii (October 5)

Bottom Line: The wheels really fell off of this program during the end of Brady Hoke’s tenure with the Aztecs. And even though I think Sean Lewis will be great long time hire for SDSU, there will be some growing pains in year 1, as new coaches implement new schemes with a lot of new players.

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10	San Jose State (3-9, 1-6)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Nevada (October 5)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. UNLV (November 23)

Bottom Line: As what commonly happens when a popular Group of Five coach departs a program, the Spartans experienced massive roster turnover after their 2023 campaign. I also don’t love the new hire in Ken Niumatalolo, as you rarely see the triple option military academy coaches have much success elsewhere. Expect some major struggles this season for the Spartans.

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10	New Mexico (1-11, 1-6)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Hawaii (November 30)- the Lobos have to win one of their Mountain West games right?

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Montana State (August 24)- The Bobcats are a really good FCS program that will be motivated for this week 0 showcase game.

Bottom Line: A new coach coming in with new schemes mixed with an inexperienced roster (13 new starters) and a brutal schedule (early games at Auburn, at Arizona, and against Fresno) will create a perfect storm of ineptitude for the Lobos in 2024.

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12	Nevada (1-11, 0-7)

Last Year’s Record: 2-10 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Eastern Washington (September 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Colorado State (November 2)

Bottom Line: See comment above by New Mexico, except the Wolf Pack are coming off an even worse season then the Lobos had in 2023.

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