Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 18th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the SEC in 2023, which is now a 16 team league full of 15 of the most college football-obsessed universities in the country… and also Vanderbilt.

1	Georgia (12-1, 7-1)- conference champion/CFP # 1 seed

Last Year’s Record: 13-1 (My 2023 prediction: 12-1)- I correctly called for Georgia to win all 12 of its regular season games in 2023 and then lose to Bama in the conference title game!

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Alabama (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Texas (October 19)

Bottom Line: Ironically, I have less to say in my summation of the consensus preseason national championship pick than most any other team in the country. When you return the most offensive starters from the best team in last year’s SEC, while also producing four straight top 5 national recruiting classes, you are going to picked # 1 in your league, pure and simple. They are also deservingly picked by most experts to win the first-ever 12 team playoff this January, especially considering that their postseason path could feature 3 or even 4 games in their home state. Yes, you read that right. If Georgia wins the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, they will likely be slated to play their quarterfinal game in Atlanta in this year’s Peach Bowl, and then after leaving the state for the semifinals, they will return home to play a national title game in Atlanta as well. And even if Georgia doesn’t win the SEC, they could still play the same two playoff games in Atlanta after an opening round matchup in Athens. Needless to say, everything is pointing towards a 3rd Georgia title in a 4 year span. However, I can’t get the Dawgs’ near defeat to Ohio State from 2022 out of my head, which was ironically played in Atlanta as well. It just seems like it would be poetic justice for the Buckeyes to get revenge on Georgia in that same stadium in this year’s title game, which is what I am calling for in January.

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2	Texas (10-3, 6-2)- conference runner-up/CFP # 6 seed

Last Year’s Record: 12-2 (My 2023 prediction: 11-2)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Georgia (October 19)- I think the Horns knock off the Dawgs at home in October but then Georgia wins the rematch in the SEC Title Game in the much more friendly confines of Atlanta.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arkansas (November 16)- The Razorbacks dominated the Horns the last time they played in Fayetteville, and I think Texas is due for one big letdown game, just like last year’s Oklahoma loss.

Bottom Line: Texas finally proved the doubters wrong last season by breaking through their previous 8-9 win ceiling and getting a berth to the College Football Playoff. This season, Texas brings back most of the key players from that squad including star quarterback Quinn Ewers and four of the top five tacklers on defense. The Horns do have to replace their top five receivers from 2024, but they have recruited well enough where they shouldn’t be too much of a step back at that position. Texas is also blessed with a relatively good conference schedule in their first SEC season, as they only have three SEC road games and one of those is against league bottom dweller Vandy. Ultimately, I think Texas wins a ton of games, makes it back to the CFP Final Four, but once again fails to bring a national championship home to Austin.

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3	Alabama (10-2, 6-2)- CFP # 8 Seed

Last Year’s Record: 12-2 (My 2023 prediction: 11-2)- I was dead-on with my Bama pick as well!

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at LSU (November 9)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Oklahoma (November 23)- this is seems like a really tough spot for the Tide as they have to go to a new, hostile venue the week before the Iron Bowl.

Bottom Line: The GOAT has left the building! Following the departure of Nick Saban, this program is bound to take at least a slight step back. And while I am a huge Kalen Deboer fan, I am not sure if bringing in a west coast guy with little to no recruiting ties to the South is the best way to sustain a decade and a half long SEC dynasty. In fact, it reminds me a little bit of Auburn’s dreadful Bryan Harsin hire from 2020. Nevertheless, in the short term, Alabama still has plenty of talent leftover from the Saban regime, and Deboer should improve the Tide’s passing game under Quarterback Jalen Milroe’s considerably. I ultimately expect Bama to return to the CFP in 2024 but not make much noise once they are there.

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4	Texas A & M (9-3, 5-3)– CFP # 9 seed

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2023 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Notre Dame (August 31)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at South Carolina (November 2)- Shane Beamer specializes in late season upsets and this seems like the perfect spot for one. Beamer’s Gamecocks will be coming into the game off a bye, while A & M plays a grueling game against LSU the week before.

Bottom Line: Yes, I realize that turning a team that was 7-6 last year into a College Football Playoff participant is asking a lot from a coach in his first season at a new job, but if anyone can do it, it would be Mike Elko this season at Texas A & M. This seems like the perfect scenario where a great motivator/schemer takes over a program with a plethora of talent that the prior coach just couldn’t put together. Past examples of this can be seen in football as well as other collegiate sports such Gene Chizik at Auburn, Bill Guthridge at North Carolina (basketball), and Tubby Smith at Kentucky (basketball). Elko inherits an experienced A & M roster this season that includes 18 returning starters, including quarterback Conner Weigman as well as their top 6 rushers form 2023. The Aggies also have a favorable SEC schedule in which they avoid Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Georgia and also play most of their toughest games at home (vs. Missouri, LSU, and Texas). In fact, I don’t expect A & M to be more than a field goal underdog in any game they play this season, except maybe in their finale against the Longhorns. I know this is definitely a surprise pick, but give me Mike Elko’s Aggies to make the College Football Playoff in his first year in College Station.

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5	LSU (8-4, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 10-3 (My 2023 prediction: 9-3)- another spot-on SEC prediction!

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Ole Miss (October 12)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Florida (November 16)

Bottom Line: Brian Kelly has exceeded my expectations so far during his LSU tenure, but there are concerns about the state of the program entering his third season in Baton Rouge. First off, this team was basically a one-man show last year as Jayden Danels racked up over 5,000 yards of total offense in 2023 en route to a well-earned Heisman trophy. It is really difficult to win a Heisman on a team that is well outside the national championship race, but Daniels did it by carrying his team in a bunch of shootouts week in and week out basis. The problem is that Daniels is gone now, as is the two receivers that caught a vast majority of his passes (Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas). The Tigers do return their top two tacklers from 2023, but their defense was so bad last year that you can’t expect that side of the ball to lead the team this season. Kelly and company have recruited well enough that there shouldn’t be an immense drop off in 2023, like you may see with Washington or UCLA, and the Tigers schedule sets up nicely as they avoid Georgia, Missouri, and Texas in league play and have most of their toughest games at home (vs. Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ole Miss). Still, I expect at least a slight step back for the Bayou Bengals after the loss of Jayden Daniels and his two stud receivers.

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6	Ole Miss (9-3, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 11-2 (My 2023 prediction: 9-3)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma (October 26)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arkansas (November 2)- this is the perfect trap game for the Rebels as this trip to Fayetteville is sandwiched directly between huge home games against Oklahoma and Georgia. Also, the Rebels have struggled mightily against the Hogs over the years, especially on the road.

Bottom Line: The Rebels have been on the doorstep of national title contention for a decade now, as they have had four 9+ win seasons in the past 10 years without a single SEC title game or College Playoff appearance to show for it. Hugh Freeze really got things going in Oxford, and after a few rough years with Matt Luke, Lane Kiffin has once again restored Ole Miss to even national prominence. The only remaining question is can Ole Miss finally breakthrough to earn a trip Atlanta or the CFP. Believe it or not, Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Vandy are the only three SEC schools that have been in the league since the beginning of its conference championship game and have not earned a bid to it yet. The path for Ole Miss to get there is seemingly easier now that division play is gone and more importantly that Nick Saban has left the league. Many people are calling for Ole Miss to finally have that breakthrough season in 2024, as they return 20 starters from last season including preseason Heisman Trophy candidate Jaxon Dart. However, I think the Rebels will ultimately fall just short of the promised land one more time this season. On one hand, Ole Miss has a very manageable schedule that should enable them to win a lot of games. But on the other hand, if they were to lose 2 or 3 of those games, then the committee would likely penalize them for not picking up enough quality wins. Moreover, Kiffin has once again used the transfer portal heavily, which is quite a blessing, but can also be a curse when the team lacks cohesion, especially early in the season. Finally, as good as Ole Miss is on offense every year, their defense has been mediocre to bad throughout Kiffin’s tenure. The bottom line is that until Ole Miss proves me wrong, I am calling for them to once again fall just short of both an SEC title game berth and CFP participation.

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6	Missouri (9-3, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 11-2 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)- yes, I realized I missed the boat on the Tigers last year!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver (Luther Burden might be the best wideout in the all of the SEC)

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma (November 9)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at South Carolina (November 6)- Another great spot for a Beamer upset, as Mizzou travels to USC late in year the week after playing a huge game against Oklahoma at home.

Bottom Line: If you read my comments above about Ole Miss, then you can apply most of it to my outlook for Missouri in 2024. The Tigers and Rebels are both returning a ton of talent and experience from a wildly successful 11 win season in 2023. They also both have very manageable SEC schedules that have led many to call for them toplay in the College Football Playoff this season. However, just like Ole Miss, I am calling for Missouri to be really good in 2024 but not playoff worthy. The issue both teams face is that they each have two games on their schedule that they are not likely to win. For Ole Miss it is going to be versus Georgia on November 9th and at LSU on October 12th. For Missouri, it will be at Texas A & M on October 5th and at Alabama on October 26th. Assuming each of these teams loses both of those games, then each will essentially have to run the table in their other 10 games to make it to the CFP, especially with schedules that are easier than most other CFP contenders. Going 10-0 will be very difficult for both, as six of those games are against SEC teams and and a seventh is against an ACC foe. Mizzou was also able to make its magical run last season by playing loose and taking a lot of teams by surprise. This year, they lose the surprise factor while also having to play with the burden of lofty preseason expectations. Ultimately, I believe Missouri will be very good once again in 2024, but I think they will take a slight step back and fall just short of the CFP.

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8	Auburn (8-4, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 6-7 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Texas A & M (November 23)

Bottom Line: All Hugh Freeze does is win football games wherever he goes, and a lot of signs point towards another breakout season for Freeze in year 2 at Auburn. First of all, Auburn returns 17 starters including its top rusher from 2023 and three of its top four defenders. The Tigers also open the season with six straight home games, the first five of which they should be heavily favored in. This should allow Auburn to generate some major momentum towards a huge week 6 clash against the Oklahoma Sooners, who will be playing in their first SEC road game as a member of the conference. Yes, there are some legitimate questions at quarterback as Payton Thorne was somewhat underwhelming in his first season on the Plains last year. And the Tigers also have road games against Georgia, Alabama, and Missouri, so a playoff berth still seems far-fetched. Nevertheless, I think Freeze is in the process of building the Tigers into a perennial SEC contender, and now that Saban is gone, there is nothing stopping Auburn from taking over as the new Kings of the Cotton State.

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8	Florida (7-5, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas A & M (September 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Kentucky (October 19)

Bottom Line: Billy Napier has been dealt a tough hand throughout his tenure in Gainesville, as the Florida head coach has faced one of the top 5 most difficult schedules in the country each of the seasons he has been there. Not only have the Gators had to play a grueling SEC slate that has featured annual contests against Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and Missouri, but they also opened both 2022 and 2023 with a tough non-conference clash against Utah and ended each those seasons with their annual in-state rivalry game against a rejuvenated Florida State program. Now, the Gators are projected by many to have the # 1 toughest schedule in the country in 2024 with an opening game against Miami, a closing game at Florida State, and a brutal SEC slate in between featuring contests against Georgia, Texas, Texas A & M, Ole Miss, and Tennessee. I do think Florida improves this year, as Graham Mertz returns at quarterback after quietly putting together a really good first season in Gainesville. He does lose his top receiver in Ricky Pearsall and his most talented running back in Trevor Etienne, but the Gators did some nice work in the transfer portal and their turnover margin of -5 from last year is bound improve this season. The key to Florida’s success in 2024 will be finding ways to come out on top in their tough but winnable early season games versus Miami, Texas A & M, Mississippi State, UCF, and Tennessee. That is because they may very well be underdogs in their final five games of the season when they play Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State all in the month of November. No one in the history of college football has faced a tougher closing stretch than that, as the Gators will be playing five teams that won 10+ games last season in five consecutive weeks! Nevertheless, I am calling for Napier to get this program back to 7 wins for the first time since they played in the SEC title game in 2020, which should be enough to keep him around for a fourth season.

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10	Oklahoma (8-4, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 10-3 (My 2023 prediction: 10-3)- a perfect projection for the Sooners last year!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas (October 12)- the Sooners have had the Horns number, winning 11 of the past 15 meetings

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Auburn (September 28)

Bottom Line: The Sooners put together a relatively quiet 10 win campaign last year that could have been even better if not for close losses on the road to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Unlike Texas, Oklahoma enters the SEC without the pressure of lofty expectations, which should be a good thing for this group. The defense should also be improved, as they bring back 8 starters from 2023 including an extremely talented and experienced defensive backfield and linebacking corps. The problem is that for the first time in a while there are some major questions and concerns about the quarterback position in Norman, as the new starter Jackson Arnold threw 4 interceptions in his only start last year for the Sooners (Alamo Bowl vs. Arizona). Still, Oklahoma has enough explosive athletes on both sides of the ball to find success in their new league, and I think they will ultimately have an impressive debut season in the SEC.

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11	Tennessee (8-4, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 9-3)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. NC State (September 7)- this should be a really fun week 2 neutral site game in Charlotte that will tell us a lot about both of these teams in 2024.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Florida (October 12)- The Gators have owned the Vols in this rivalry over the past couple of decades including last year’s upset in Gainesville.

Bottom Line: I called for the Vols to take a slight step back in 2023 following the departures of Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt, and Byron Young, and I was exactly right with that prognostication. Now, I think Tennessee will take another step back after losing its top six tacklers from 2023 as well as their starting quarterback (Joe Milton) and leading rusher (Jaylen Wright). New quarterback Nico Iamaleva has a top of upside, but he is still just a redshirt freshman that only has one collegiate start under his belt. The Vols also play a treacherous schedule that features both the typical juggernauts who they have played annually (Alabama, Georgia, and Florida) but also some new challenges in NC State and Oklahoma. All in all, I think Tennessee is a really good football team again this season, but sadly in this new super SEC, 8-4 can put you in 11th place in the conference standings, which is exactly how and where I have the Vols finishing in 2024.

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12	Kentucky (6-6, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Florida (October 19)- the Cats have had the Gators number recently after failing to beat them in 31 straight matchups between 1987 and 2017.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Louisville (November 30)- the Cats have won five straight in this series so the Cards will be out for revenge in this year’s Commonwealth Cup

Bottom Line: My beloved Kentucky Wildcats seem like a team a lot of people may be sleeping on in 2024, as they return 18 starters from a squad that ended last year by beating 9th ranked Louisville on the road and then almost upsetting Clemson in the Gator Bowl. The Wildcats will once again be rock solid on defense under Coach Mark Stoops with 9 returning starters from last year’s unit that ranked in the top 20 nationally. The biggest question for the Cats in 2024 is how will the offense look with Georgia transfer Brock Vandagriff at the helm and new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan calling plays. Kentucky also loses its top two rushers from 2023, including workhorse back Ray Davis, so there will be quite a bit of uncertainty on that side of the ball. In the end, I think Stoops will do what he has done throughout his tenure in Kentucky which is win enough games to have a respectable season and make it to a bowl game (the Cats have currently made a school record 7 straight bowl appearances), but ultimately fall short of national prominence and CFP consideration.

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13	South Carolina (5-7, 2-6)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas A & M (November 2)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Vanderbilt (November 9)- this is a perfect trap game for the Cocks, as this road trip to Nashville is sandwiched directly between two huge home games against Texas A & M and Missouri.

Bottom Line: This football program had so much positive momentum at end of the 2022 season following upset wins over Tennessee and Clemson and a near upset over Notre Dame in the Gator Bowl. Now, a year and a half later, it feels like that all of that momentum that Shane Beamer had generated is long gone. It started with the controversial hiring in early 2023 of the much-maligned Dowell Loggins as offensive coordinator. It turns out Loggains, a former SEC tight end, would have been better off working as an offensive lineman for the team as opposed to an offensive coordinator, as last year’s line couldn’t pass block (41 sacks allowed) or run block (126th nationally) to save its life. As a result, my beloved Gamecocks stumbled to a disappointing 5-7 season that included an 0-5 record away from home. The question now is where does this program go from here and what can Shane Beamer do to right the ship. The Cocks did address its rushing issues in the offseason by revamping its O-Line and bringing in star Arkansas running back Raheim “Rocket” Sanders. The bigger issue is the passing game that will rely on a redshirt freshman quarterback that has thrown a total of four collegiate passes to run the show (Lanorris Sellers). He will also be throwing to a slew of inexperienced wideouts, as the Gamecocks top three pass catchers from 2023 have departed the program. The South Carolina defense does bring back 8 starters from 2023 including their top 4 tacklers, but that unit wasn’t particularly good last season, ranking 87th nationally. I do think Beamer is a good coach that is capable of pulling off some big late season home wins like he has the past couple of seasons (Kentucky- 2023; Clemson, Tennessee- 2022), but if this team starts 1-2 like they very well may do (the Cocks open up vs. Old Dominion, at Kentucky, and vs. LSU), then you have to wonder if Beamer can he keep his guys focused enough to navigate the remainder of their brutal schedule (vs. Ole Miss, at Alabama, at Oklahoma, vs. Texas A & M, vs. Missouri, and of course at Clemson in the Palmetto Bowl). Ultimately, I think the Gamecocks fall short of a bowl game once again in 2024 causing Beamer to enter the 2025 season on somewhat of a hot seat

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13	Arkansas (5-7, 2-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas (November 16)- The Razorbacks dominated the Horns the last time they played in Fayetteville, and I think Texas is due for one big letdown game in 2024, just like last year’s Oklahoma loss.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Mississippi State (October 26)

Bottom Line: You know things have gotten desperate in Fayetteville when the program is bringing back a former head coach that got fired for having an affair and getting into a motorcycle accident with a student-athlete to run the offense. That’s right, Bobby Petrino is making his inauspicious return to the Arkansas football program in a hail mary attempt to try to save Sam Pittman’s job. Pittman enters 2024 on one of the hottest seats in the country after seeing his program fall from 9 wins to 7 in 2022 and then all the way down to 4 wins in 2023. Petrino should inject some life in a stagnant passing game that ranked 105th nationally last season, but he will have to do it without the team’s two best offensive players from last year, K.J. Jefferson and Rocket Sanders, both of whom transferred out of the program. The Hogs defense, which was the strength of the team a season ago, also loses its two best tacklers in Jaheim Thomas and Chris Paul. Moreover, the Hogs face a brutal schedule, like most SEC teams, that features road games against Auburn, Oklahoma State, Texas A & M, and Missouri and home contests against Texas, Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU. In fact, as it stands now, I am not sure the Hogs will be favored in any of their eight SEC games this season. That fact certainly doesn’t bode well for a coach that is fighting for his job this season.

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15	Mississippi State (4-8, 1-7)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arkansas (October 26)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Toledo (September 14)- this seems like a perfect recipe for an upset as you have an inexperienced SEC team in the midst of a coaching transition playing an early season game against one of the MAC’s perennial powers.

Bottom Line: The ghost of Mike Leach still looms large in Starkville, as the Bulldogs struggled mightily in their first season without the Pirate in 2023. As a result, head coach Zach Arnett was fired after just one year on the job and star quarterback Will Howard left town via the transfer portal. Enter Jeff Lebby who takes over the program after several successful seasons running high powered offenses at Baylor, UCF, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma. The Mississippi State program does seem to best thrive with offensive-minded head coaches, as a vast majority of their modern success has came under the reigns of Dan Mullen and Mike Leach. Jeff Lebby will once again open up the Bulldog offense, but it is going to take some time for him to get this thing moving in the right direction. I expect quite a bit of growing pains for the Bulldogs in 2024, as they will be adjusting to new coaches with new schemes while also facing one of the league’s most difficult schedules. Believe it or not, MSU opens conference play with games against Florida, Texas, Georgia, and Texas A & M, so starting the season anything better than 0-4 in league play would be a major accomplishment for this squad. MSU also returns a grand total of zero starters from last year’s offense! Expect a rough season in Starkville.

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15	Vanderbilt (4-8, 1-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. South Carolina (November 9)- the Commodores have come so close to beating the Gamecocks over the years, and I think they finally get over the hump in 2024.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Virginia Tech (August 31)

Bottom Line: Vandy is going to be Vandy, pure and simple. In this new super conference, I don’t envision the Dores returning to a bowl game anytime soon, as the separation between the haves and the have not (Vandy) in the SEC continues to grow. I am calling for Vanderbilt to pick up their first conference win in over a season this year, but I don’t think that will be enough to save Clark Lea’s job after four sub par seasons. Ultimately though, I don’t know who can come into Nashville and lead this program to consistent success in this more brutal than ever Southeastern Conference.

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