The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 15th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR.

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 40 teams on the list with 20 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 20 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 84 bowl eligible teams for 2024 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for zero 5-7 teams to make it to a bowl game this season and two teams with 6-6 records or better to be left out of bowl season.  This list is updated through all games played on November 16th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (20):

Arkansas- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech, at Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91% (previous odds: 92%)

Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, at Ohio State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80% (previous odds: 80%)

South Florida- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at Rice; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% (previous odds: 60%)

South Alabama- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74% (previous odds: 39%)

California- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Stanford, at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73% (previous odds: 89%)

Western Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Central Michigan, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71% (previous odds: 73%)

UTSA- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, at Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 44%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Duke, vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69% (previous odds: 69%)

North Texas- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs, East Carolina, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 67%)

West Virginia- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UCF, at Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 64%)

Florida- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss, at Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59% (previous odds: 32%)

Nebraska- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 59%)

Southern Cal- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% (previous odds: 52%)

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 61%)

Wisconsin- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Nebraska, vs. Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 58%)

Boston College- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Carolina, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 56%)

Cincinnati- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, vs. TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 54%)

Eastern Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Buffalo, at Western Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 55%)

Michigan State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Purdue, vs. Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 57%)

Fresno State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado State, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% (previous odds: 51%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (20):

New Mexico- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 15%)

NC State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, at North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 46%)

UL-Monroe- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 49%)

UCLA- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Cal, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% (previous odds: 42%)

Old Dominion- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 47%)

Kansas- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 31%)

Virginia- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. SMU, at Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 38%)

Appalachian State- Record: 4-5 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: vs. James Madison, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 34%)

UCF- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 33%)

Arizona- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at TCU, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 25%)

Oklahoma- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Alabama, at LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 29%)

Utah- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa State, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 27% (previous odd: 37%)

Houston- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Baylor, at BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds; 36%)

Oregon State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State, at Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12% (previous odds: 41%)

Kentucky- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Texas, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10% (previous odds: 9%)

Maryland- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% (previous odds: 40%)

Northwestern- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. at Michigan, vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% (previous odds: 10%)

Louisiana Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, vs. Kennesaw State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7% (previous odds: 2%)

Wake Forest- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% (previous odds: 18%)

Auburn- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule:  vs. Texas A & M, at Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5% (previous odds: 4%)

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Already Bowl Eligible (64): (1) Clemson, (2) Duke, (3) Georgia Tech, (4) Louisville, (5) Miami-FL, (6) Pittsburgh, (7) SMU, (8) Syracuse, (9) Army, (10) Memphis, (11) Navy, (12) Tulane, (13) Illinois, (14) Indiana, (15) Iowa, (16) Minnesota, (17) Ohio State (18) Oregon, (19) Penn State, (20) Arizona State, (21) BYU, (22) Colorado, (23) Iowa State, (24) Kansas State, (25) TCU, (26) Texas Tech, (27) Uconn, (28) Liberty, (29) Jacksonville State, (30) Sam Houston, (31) Western Kentucky, (32) Ohio, (33) Toledo, (34) Boise State, (35) Colorado State, (36) UNLV, (37) San Jose State, (38) Washington State, (39) Alabama, (40) Georgia (41) LSU, (42) Texas, (43) Texas A& M (44) Missouri, (45) Ole Miss, (46) South Carolina, (47) Tennessee, (48) Vanderbilt, (49) Georgia Southern, (50) James Madison, (51) UL-Lafayette, (52) Marshall, (53) Notre Dame, (54) Bowling Green (previous odds: 86%), (55) Buffalo (previous odds: 94%), (56) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 88%), (57) Miami-OH (previous odds: 98%), (58) East Carolina (previous odds: 74%), (59) Washington (previous odds: 53%), (60) Baylor (previous odds: 72%), (61) Arkansas State (previous odds: 65%), (62) Rutgers (previous odds; 62%), (63) Texas State (previous odds: 91%), (64) North Carolina (previous odds: 84%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (30):  (1) Florida State, (2) Stanford, (3) Florida Atlantic, (4) Rice, (5) Temple, (6) UAB, (7) Purdue, (8) Oklahoma State, (9) Kennesaw State, (10) UTEP, (11) Middle Tennessee, (12) New Mexico State, (13) Akron, (14) Kent State, (15) Air Force, (16) Hawaii, (17) Nevada, (18) Utah State, (19) Wyoming, (20) Mississippi State, (21) Georgia State, (22) Troy, (23) Southern Miss, (24) UMass, (25) Central Michigan (previous odds: 6%), (26) Ball State (previous odds: 8%), (27) Tulsa (previous odds: 12%), (28) FIU (previous odds: 21%), (29) Charlotte (previous odds: 35%), (30) San Diego State (previous odds: 7%)

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Current Stats (134 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 64

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 20  (84)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 30

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 20 (50)

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