For the 15th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 16, 2024.

For the 15th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 16, 2024.

ACC– SMU/Miami-FL (After Saturday’s games, we officially have a three team race between SMU (6-0), Clemson (7-1), and Miami-FL (5-1) for the two spots in the ACC title game.  The Mustangs are in the best position to get there as they are last of the remaining conference unbeatens.  They just need to get by Virginia and Cal in their final couple of games to lock in a spot to Charlotte.  In fact, even if they lose one of those final couple of games, they will still likely earn a title game berth due to the tiebreaker described below. The other spot will likely come down to the two preseason league favorites, Clemson and Miami.  The Tigers and Canes both have one conference loss but should win the remainder of their league games.  If that happens, then Miami will earn the second title game spot by virtue of having the better record against the presumed highest ranked common opponent in the league, Louisville).  

Big 12– BYU/Colorado (We knew pretty early on in the season that the Big 12 title race was going to be wild, and it has certainly delivered.  Right now, BYU (6-1) and Colorado (6-1) are in the catbird seats with one loss, and Arizona State (5-2) and Iowa State (5-2) are each a game back.  BYU and Arizona State play against one another in a monster game next week that I think the Cougars find a way to win.  BYU then hosts Houston to end the season, which I also think they will win to clinch a Big 12 title game berth with an 8-1 mark in league play.  Meanwhile, I think Colorado drops their contest next weekend at a red hot Kansas squad which brings Iowa State back into the picture.  The Cyclones finish the year with two winnable games: a road contest at Utah and a home game against Kansas State, which I believe will also enable them to finish the season with a 7-2 mark in conference play.  Colorado and Iowa State would then be tied for the second Big 12 title spot.  The second title game spot would then be decided by the best record against the highest ranked common opponent.  Interestingly enough, this would be determined by whoever finishes higher in the league standings, Kansas State or Texas Tech.  If K-State finishes higher, then Iowa State would get the nod over Colorado (ISU beat K-State and Colorado lost to them), but if Texas Tech finishes higher, then Colorado would win the spot (Colorado beat Texas Tech and Iowa State lost to them).  Right now, both of those teams sit at 4-3 and I think Iowa State splits their final two contests to end up at 5-4.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech should be able to knock off lowly Oklahoma State, even in Stillwater, as well as West Virginia at home to finish the season at 6-3.  That means the Buffs would get the edge over Iowa State and Coach Prime would get a berth in a conference title game.) 

 

Big Ten– Oregon/Ohio State (The Big Ten title race will be decided between Indiana (7-0), Oregon (8-0), Ohio, State (6-1), and Penn State (6-1), and unlike the aforementioned conferences, it may end up being fairly simple.  If the Ducks knock off Washington in their final game of the season, a matchup they will be heavily favored to win, they will clinch one of the two title game spots.  Then, the other spot will likely be decided next Saturday when Indiana and Ohio State play each other in what should essentially be a de facto conference title play-in game.  The Nittany Lions are still technically in the mix but need a lot of help.)

SEC– Texas/Alabama (The wild and crazy bloodbath that continues to be the SEC title race should have several more twists and turns over the final two weeks of the season.  Right now, there are no less than six SEC teams that have two conference losses or less and are in the mix for a trip to Atlanta.  Texas (5-1) and Texas A & M (5-1) share the current lead with only one conference loss and both of those squads should take care of their respective opponents next Saturday (Kentucky and Auburn) to setup a de facto conference title play-in game on November 30th in College Station.  And even though that game will be in College Station, I give the Longhorns a slight edge there given their tremendous talent and experience.  Meanwhile, Georgia (6-2), Tennessee (5-2), Ole Miss (4-2), and Alabama (4-2) are all hanging around with two losses trying to earn that second bid to Atlanta, which will almost certainly come down to a tiebreaker between multiple two-loss teams.   Right now, I am predicting those teams to be Texas A & M, Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama.  The applicable tiebreaker at that point will be cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents among the tied teams, which at this point would narrowly go to the Crimson Tide.)

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American– Tulane/Army (The first conference title game is set!  The Green Wave (7-0) will play the Black Knights (7-0) on Friday December 6th.  The location of that game is still to be determined.)    

Conference USA– Jacksonville State/Western Kentucky (This conference race was shaken up considerably on Saturdy as Western Kentucky was stunned at home by Louisiana Tech while both Jacksonville State  and Sam Houston narrowly survived upset attempts against them as well.  At the end of the day, Jacksonville State (6-0) has now emerged as the lone conference unbeaten, but they play both of the two one-loss C-USA teams, Western Kentucky (5-1) and Sam Houston (5-1), in the final two weekends of the year.  I am calling for them to split those two contests to earn one of the two conference title spots with a 7-1 overall record.  The other spot I am predicting to go to Western Kentucky by virtue of their head to head tiebreaker over Sam Houston.  I think both the Hilltoppers and Bearkats lose one of their final two down the stretch, which will leave them both with two conference losses and give the final bid to WKU.  The Flames of Liberty (4-2) are still technically in the running for the conference crown, but they are on the outside looking in with two conference losses.  However, if they win out, they will earn a title game bid by virtue of their head to head tiebreakers over both Sam Houston and Western Kentucky, since those are the two teams remaining on their schedule.  The bottom line is that it is going to be a wild final couple of weeks in Conference USA play, as the league has either strategically or accidentally scheduled all of their title contenders to play one another in the final couple of weeks of the season.)

MAC– Bowling Green/Toledo  (There is a ton of parity in the MAC, who currently has a three team tie atop its conference standings between Miami-OH (5-1), Ohio (5-1), and Bowling Green (5-1) with three other teams sitting just a game back (Buffalo, Western Michigan and Toledo are all 4-2).  I believe one title game spot will go to Bowling Green who I believe will win out and end up as the lone one loss MAC team.  I am then predicting that the second conference title game spot will come down to a tiebreaker between multiple two loss teams.  I believe that Miami-OH will be one of those teams involved in that tiebreakers, as I am calling them split games between Northern Illinois and Bowling Green down the stretch.  Meanwhile, I believe Ohio will also have two losses by virtue of a road loss to Toledo and home win over Ball State.  I am then calling for Western Michigan and Toledo to both win out to create a four way tie for second place between Miami-OH, Ohio, Western, Michigan, and Toledo (I think Buffalo falls out of the mix by virtue of a loss next week at Eastern Michigan).  The applicable tiebreaker would be the same as the SEC, cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, which right now would narrowly go to the Rockets of Toledo.)  

Mountain West– Boise State/Colorado State  (In the MWC title race, the Boise State Broncos have all but locked up one of the two conference championship game spots, as even if they lose their season finale at Wyoming next weekend, they will still likely win tiebreakers over both Colorado State (5-0) and UNLV (4-1).  That is because the Broncos knocked off the Rebels earlier this season to have the head-to-head advantage there, and then Boise’s College Football Playoff ranking will certainly be higher than CSU’s which will give them the edge there as well.  That basically leaves Colorado State and UNLV to battle it out for the second MWC championship spot.  As of now, the Rams are a game up on the Rebels, and I think they will stay that way, as I am calling for both teams to split their final two games.  I believe UNLV will lose to San Jose State on the road next week but then beat Nevada in the finale. Meanwhile, I think Colorado State will lose next weekend at Fresno but then handle Utah State in the finale.  I am thus calling for Colorado State to earn the second spot in the MWC title game and make the trip to Boise.  If these two teams do end up tied for second in league play, UNLV will edge CSU out for the final spot.  The reason is that because these two teams don’t play each other in the regular season, the Mountain West’s applicable tiebreaker will, strangely enough, be who has the better overall record.  UNLV has one less loss on the season than the Rams so they would get the bid in that situation. I have never heard of such a tiebreaker being used, and I kind of hate it because it really disincentivizes teams from playing a difficult non-conference schedule.)

Sun Belt East– Georgia Southern (The Sun Belt is the last FBS league to hold on to its division format so we have two different title races going on in this league.  In the East, Marshall (5-1) holds a one game lead on Georgia Southern (4-2)  and James Madison (4-2), while Old Dominion (3-3) is still in contention despite their loss to JMU today.  After Saturday’s games, the Herd clearly have the mathematical advantage at this point, but they have a brutal finishing stretch that features road games at Old Dominion and James Madison.  I am going to call for them to split those two matchups and end the season at 6-2.  Meanwhile, Georgia Southern must play at Coastal and against App., which are two games they should find a way to win.  James Madison ends their year with games at App. State and at home against Marshall, and I am going to predict they win both of their final two games as well.  If this happens, then we will have a three-way tie atop the division between Marshall, Georgia Southern, and JMU.  The Eagles of Georgia Southern will then win that tiebreaker by virtue of their head to head victories over both James Madison and Marshall.)       

Sun Belt West– UL-Lafayette (In last week’s edition of this article, I said the Sun Belt west was the least intriguing conference/division title race.  This race has now heated up considerably as a result of South Alabama’s stunning road upset of the Ragin’ Cajuns (5-1) on Saturday.  UL-Lafayette’s division lead has been trimmed down to a single game, and while they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over Texas State (4-2) and Arkansas State (4-2), they do not hold that tiebreaker over the South Alabama team (4-2) that just beat them.  With all that being said, I still think the Ragin’ Cajuns win this division crown by taking care of Troy and UL-Monroe in their final two games, but there is now a decent amount of intrigue in drama in the Sun Belt West.)

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In addition to my usual analysis above of every conference/division title race, I am going to rank each race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 10 of the division/conference championship races:

1. SEC (between Tennessee, Texas A & M, Texas, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama)
2. Big 12 (between BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, and Arizona State)
3. ACC (between SMU, Miami-FL, and Clemson)
4. Big Ten (between Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State)
5. Mountain West (between Boise State, Colorado State, and UNLV)
6. Conference USA (between Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, Sam Houston, and Liberty)
7. MAC (between Miami-OH, Ohio, Bowling Green, Western Michigan, Buffalo, and Toledo)
8. Sun Belt East (between Georgia Southern, Marshall, James Madison, and Old Dominion)
9. Sun Belt West (between UL-Lafayette, Texas State, Arkansas State, and South Alabama)
10. American (bids clinched by Army and Tulane)