Brad-ketology: January 31st Edition

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop. You may also notice that some teams are listed in both the NCAA and NIT/College Basketball Crown (CBC) fields. These are teams predicted to be automatic qualifiers to the NCAA tournament that would also earn at-large bids to the NIT or CBC tournaments if they were to lose in their respective conference tournaments. There are a couple of reasons why these teams are displayed like this. First and foremost, it shows how close those teams are to getting at-large bids in the NCAA tournament field. Secondly, it shows where those squads would be seeded if in fact they lost in their conference tournament and garnered a bit to the NIT or College Basketball Crown.

Moreover, just to clarify, my bracket projection is intended to project the NCAA Tournament field if it was chosen today.  Unlike some bracketologists, I am not trying to predict how each team will finish the season and then seed the teams based on that.  There is one slight exception to this rule, however, and that is that I have always chosen to award the projected automatic bid for each conference to the best team in that conference, and not the team who is currently leading the conference standings.  Given how unbalanced conference schedules are, it just seems like common sense to project that the best team in a conference will win the league championship, not the squad currently in first place.

This bracket projection has been updated through all games played on Thursday January 30th. Brad-ketology columns will typically be published twice a week (typically on Mondays and Fridays) and likely more often than that when it gets closer to tourney time.  Please feel free to comment or debate.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Iowa State

2-seeds: Florida, Houston, Marquette, Kentucky

3-seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Kansas, Purdue

4-seeds: Texas A & M, Michigan, Ole Miss, Oregon

5-seeds: Arizona, Wisconsin, Mississippi State, Illinois

6-seeds: Louisville, Texas Tech, Maryland, Missouri

7-seeds: UCLA, Memphis, Clemson, Gonzaga

8-seeds: UConn, Vanderbilt, Creighton, Utah State

9-seeds: West Virginia, Ohio State, Baylor, St. John’s

10-seeds: Georgia, Pittsburgh, Oklahoma, Saint Mary’s

11-seeds: Texas, UC Irvine, San Diego State, New Mexico, North Carolina, BYU

12-seeds: VCU, Drake, Arkansas State, McNeese State

13-seeds: Grand Canyon, Yale, Liberty, Lipscomb

14-seeds: High Point, Samford, Akron, North Dakota State

15-seeds: Northern Colorado, Norfolk State, Towson, Bryant

16-seeds: Central Connecticut State, Cleveland State, Marist, Southern, American, Morehead State

NIT/College Basketball Crown Teams (in order of proximity to NCAA tourney at-large field):

1Nebraska (13-8)
2Arizona State (12-8)
3Xavier (13-9)
4UCF (13-7)
5SMU (16-5)
6Cincinnati (12-8)
7Indiana (14-7)
8Wake Forest (15-6)
9Northwestern (12-9)
10Stanford (15-6)
11Iowa (13-8)
12Santa Clara (14-9)
13Arkansas (12-8)
14Villanova (12-9)
15Southern Cal (12-8)
16North Texas (14-4)
17VCU (15-5)
18Penn State (13-9)
19Boise State (13-7)
20Dayton (13-7)
21Utah (12-8)
22Colorado State (14-7)
23San Francisco (16-6)
24George Mason (15-5)
25LSU (12-8)
26Oregon State (15-7)
27TCU (10-10)
28Drake (17-2)
29Georgetown (13-8)
30Rutgers (11-10)
31Saint Joseph’s (13-8)
32UC San Diego (16-4)
33Bradley (17-4)
34St. Bonaventure (15-6)
35Florida State (13-8)
36Nevada (11-10)
37Washington State (15-8)
38Arkansas State (17-5)
39McNeese State (14-5)
40Grand Canyon (15-5)
41Yale (10-6)
42Liberty (14-4)
43Providence (11-10)
44Minnesota (11-10)
45Saint Louis (11-8)
46Illinois-Chicago (12-7)
47UNLV (11-10)
48Northern Iowa (12-9)

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