Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few days to publish my 98th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the top two teams in the league but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Big 12 in 2025, which has emerged as by far the most wide open of the Power 4 conferences with the most parity.

1	Baylor (9-4, 7-2)– regular season champ/conference runner-up

Last Year’s Record: 8-5 (My 2024 prediction: 4-8)- I greatly understimated Dave Aranda’s squad last season

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Utah (November 15)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona (November 22)

Bottom Line: Dave Aranda has had one of the most up and down tenures in FBS over the past six seasons at Baylor, as his squad’s win total has fluctatuted from two wins (2020) to tweleve wins (2021) and everything in between. In fact, the Bears have not had played in consecutive seasons under Aranda where their overall record was within two games or less of each other. I am calling for that streak to end in 2025 however, as I think this Baylor’s squad is similar to last year’s team with a little more experience (18 experienced starters returning including a starting QB, three out of top four pass rushers, top two pass catchers, and two of the top three tacklers). I am ultimately calling for the Bears to beat Utah at home en route to the Big 12 title game but then lose in the neutral site rematch against the Utes on December 6th.

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1	Utah (11-2, 7-2)- conference champion/CFP # 11 seed

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2024 prediction: 9-3)- the Utes were one of the top disappointment teams nationally last season

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona State (October 11)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas (November 28)

Bottom Line: The Utes were a trendy pick to win the Big 12 going into last season, but Quarterback Cam Rising never got healthy and their season went off the rails by late September. Now, that there is less attention on this squad, I expect Kyle Whittingham to flourish, especailly with an experienced dual threat quartterback in Devon Dampier. Altogether, Utah will be fielding a squad with 17 experienced starters including three of its top five tacklers defensively and its entire offensive line. I ultimately think since they have now had a year to adjust to their new league, the Utes will take the strides necessary to win their first Big 12 title in 2025.

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3	Iowa State (8-4, 7-2)

Last Year’s Record: 11-3 (My 2024 prediction: 8-4)- As you can see, like most experts, my Big 12 picks for 2024 were pretty far off.

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive LIne

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona State (November 1)-big revenge game for the Cyclones after the Sun Devils blew them out in the conference title game

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. South Dakota (August 30)- this is my biggest week 1 shocker, as I think the Cyclones struggle in an obvious letdown spot in which they will be coming back from a transatlantic flight.

Bottom Line: As discussed in my crazy preseason facts and tidbits article, the Cyclones are trying to break their record-breaking 113 year conference champioship drought in 2025 and also obtain its first undefeated seaon at home since 1936. Unfortunately, I think Iowa State falls just short of achieving both of these goals this season. The Cyclones bring back an experienced quarterback on offense (Rocco Becht) and an elite secondary on defense (# 1 pass defense in the country last season), but I do think the loss of their top two receivers and top two tacklers will set them back a bit this year.

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4	Texas Tech (10-2, 7-2)

Last Year’s Record: 8-5 (My 2024 prediction: 8-4)- pretty much spot-on with my projection for the Red Raiders!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Arizona State (October 18)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas State (November 1)

Bottom Line: The Red Raiders are one of the few programs in this league that are using the portal and NIL as aggressively as most of the SEC and Big 12 schools. That has to pay off this for Joey McGuire’s team, as he has 21 experienced starters at his disposal this season. Nevertheless, the Red Raiders always lose one game too many in order to compete for conference and national titles, even dating back to the Mike Leach days. I expect that trend to continue in 2025, as Texas Tech will flirt with a Big 12 title, just to come up short.

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4	TCU (10-2, 7-2)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2024 prediction: 9-3)- another team whose season I correctly prognosticated last season

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Arizona State (September 26)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Houston (November 22)

Bottom Line: Like Texas Tech above, TCU is one of the rare schools who does have the NIL resources to compete with the big boys. After the 2023 letdown season, the Horned Frogs took a big step forward in 2024, and I think they’ll do the same in 2025. However, I have enough concerns about their defense, especially against hte run, for me to call for them to fall just short of a conference title this season.

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6	Kansas State (8-4, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2024 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Texas Tech (November 1)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Oklahoma State (November 15)

Bottom Line: The Wildcats are always one of those squads that I am generally lower on that most experts, and I may be underrating them again in 2025. However, I did correctly predict their loss in Dublin last weekend, and with several more tricky road games on the horizon later this season (at Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Utah), I don’t envision this squad challenging for the conference crown like many are projecting.

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6	Houston (8-4, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2024 prediction: 2-10)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. TCU (November 22)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UCF (November 7)

Bottom Line: I think Willie Fritz takes a huge step forward in his second season with the Cougars. First of all, this squad was a lot better last year than their 4-8 record indicates, as they dealt with a ton injuries last year and finished with an unlucky -8 turnover margin. If they can stay healthy and reverse their turnover numbers, this squad has enough talent (# 3 transfer portal class) and experience (16 experienced starters) to be dangerous in the Big 12. You will find out soon that Houston is very high on my list of surprise teams for the upcoming season.

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8	BYU (7-5, 4-5)

Last Year’s Record: 11-2 (My 2024 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Arizona (October 11)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Colorado (September 27)

Bottom Line: It remains to be seen how big the loss of Jake Retzlaff will be for this squad, but assuming they can find a functional signal caller, Sitake’s team can still be rock solid. The Cougar defense will keep them in a lot of games and may in fact help them win several. However, with 14 starters gone from last year’s squad which benefitted from a +8 turnover margin, there will be some inevitable regression from their sensational 11 win campaign in 2024.

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8	Kansas (5-7, 4-5)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2024 prediction: 11-2)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at UCF (September 20)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at NC State (November 29)

Bottom Line: I may be a little too low on my prognostication for Kansas this year, but this team burned me last year as my preseason pick to win the Big 12, so I am not going to buy into the Jayhawk hype this time around. Jalon Daniels is sensational at quarterback, but given his injury history, I am not sure how much of the season you can expect him to play. This squad also lost 16 starters to graduation and the portal, including their top six tacklers, top seven pass catchers, and leading rusher (Devin Neal), and they don’t exactly have the talent coming in to offset that (second to last ranked recruiting class in the league two of the past three reasons and just a 46th ranked transfer portal class nationally this season). Kansas may ultimately find its way back to a bowl in 2025, but don’t expect another 9 win season like we saw in 2023.

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10	Colorado (5-7, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2024 prediction: 3-9)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona State (November 22)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at West Virginia (November 8)- Rich Rod’s squad is going to knock off someone they shouldn’t at home this year and the Buffs seem like the perfect candidate given the lengthy travel and the inconsistency we have seen from Deion’s teams over the years.

Bottom Line: What can Coach Prime do without his two sons and the incredible Travis Hunter? That’s the million dollar question for a program that spent at least a million dollars on NIL contracts for the two quarterbacks they brought in, Julian Lewis and Kaidon Salter. Salter has been named the starter for week 1 but you wonder how long of a leash he has given Lewis’ immense talent. On the other side of the ball, the Buffs defense should be improved (especially up front) with eight experienced starters returning, but Colorado is unlikely to replicate the +12 turnover margin they had last season, especially without Hunter. The Buffs also face a tough schedule in 2025 that starts with a matchup against one of the ACC’s top teams and features five conference road games. I don’t expect the Buffs completely bottom out this season but expect some regression for this squad in 2025.

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11	Oklahoma State (5-7, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 6-7 (My 2024 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas State (November 15)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Houston (October 11)

Bottom Line: Was last season an anomaly for the Cowboys or a sign of struggles to come? That is the big question for Mike Gundy, as he enters his 21st season in Stillwater. And he answer to it may be a little of both. I doubt the Pokes will have the injury issues they had to deal with in 2024 and their -8 turnover margin was probably an outlier as well. However, Gundy’s teams have always needed at least a competent quarterback to be successful and none of the QBs on this roster have thrown a pass in college before. They have also taken a dip in recruiting over the past three seasons with classes ranked 10th or worse in the conference in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Ultimately, OK State won’t finish 0-9 in the Big 12 like they did last year, but I think they are also a long way away from the success they have experienced during most of Gundy’s tenure.

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12	Cincinnati (5-7, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2024 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Iowa State (October 4)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Oklahoma State (October 18)

Bottom Line: Sometimes you just don’t have much to say about a particular team, and that is how I feel about this year’s Bearcats. They are average to slightly below average in just about every analytical categorical (high school recruiting, transfer portal class, returning experience, etc.) and as a result they will be an average to slightly below average football team in 2025. Sometimes this sport isnt’ that hard to figure out.

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13	Arizona State (6-6, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 11-3 (My 2024 prediction: 2-10)- I was just a little bit off on this projection, lol

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona (November 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Colorado (November 22)

Bottom Line: I really like Kenny Dillingham as a coach and the energey he has brought to this program, but just about every analytical factor supports a major step back season for the Sun Devils this season. First of all, this team won a ton of close games last year, many of which were to really bad football teams, especially early on. Keep in mind that in weeks 2 and 3 they beat lowly Texas State and Missississpi State by a total of 10 points and then proceeded to finish the regular season with an incredible 6-1 record in one score games. They also benefitted from a +14 turnover margin throughout 2024 as well as a ton of injury luck. Now, they lose their unquestioned team leader in Cam Skattebo and people are just expecting Quarterback Sam Leavitt, who led a passing attack that ranked 62nd in the nation last season, to just take over and lead them back to the Big 12 title. I just don’t see it. The Sun Devils aren’t going to completely crumble in 2025, but expect a similar regression as to what we saw from TCU in the year after their Cinderalla run to the national title game in 2022.

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14	UCF (5-7, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2024 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas (October 4)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Oklahoma State (November 22)

Bottom Line: History has not been kind to coaches that come back to their original place of success after years away (see Randy Edsall at UConn, Mack Brown at UNC, Bobby Petrino at Louisville, etc.). Frost is now trying to re-create the magic he had at UCF in 2016 and 2017 in a totally different college football landscape. I am not saying its destined to fail, but don’t expect the immediate turnaround we saw from UCF during Frost’s tenure. This squad lacks experience on both sides of the ball (only 4 returning starers), and while they should be good upfront defensively, the back end of that unit has major question marks. Be patient UCF fans, it is going to take a minute for this rebuild to get going.

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14	Arizona (5-7, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2024 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Baylor (November 22)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Cincinnati (November 15)

Bottom Line: Some successful Group of Five coaches just aren’t cut out to coach at the major conference level (Billy Napier, Larry Fedora, Bryan Harsin, etc.), and I think Brent Brennan may be one of them. I was skeptical of this hire from the start, as Brennan had a steady but unremarkable run at San Jose State prior to coming to Tucson. Now, coming off a 4-8 season, the Wildcats lose their best player (receiver Tetairoa McMillan who now plays in the NFL), starting running back, and ten other starters from last year’s squad. The program has new coordinators on both sides of the ball, which is probably a good thing overall, but the scheme changes may cause some disruption early in the season. Overall, I think Arizona will be slightly improved over last year’s 4-8 debacle, but if you can’t win most of your games in the Big 12 with a talent like Noah Fifita at quarterback, then I don’t see much hope for this progam going forwrad.

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16	West Virginia (2-10, 1-8)

Last Year’s Record: 6-7 (My 2024 prediction: 9-3)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Colorado (November 8)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Ohio (September 6)- the experienced Bobcats will be pumped for the opportunity to play a nearby Power 4 opponent in Athens. This seems like a bad spot for Rich Rod’s crew.

Bottom Line: See comments about UCF above. West Virginia made the ultimate nostalgia hire by bringing back Rich Rodriguez 18 years after he departed the program for two unsuccessful tenures at other Power 4 program (Michigan and Arizona). Traditionally, it has taken a while for Rich Rod to get his system going whenever he takes a new job. At Jacksonville State, Coach Rodriguez had immediate success, but prior that, his teams finished well under .500 in his debut season during his first four head coaching stops. You will undoubtedly see that trend re-emerge this season, as the Mountaineers must overhaul their entire roster after having two starters return from last year’s squad. Expect a rough transition/rebuilding year in Morgantown.

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