The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 16th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games or teams in the FBS transition process (i.e. Missouri State and Delaware this season).

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 67 teams on the list with 28 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 39 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2025 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for 2 “backup teams” who are in the FBS transition process or possess a 5-7 record to make it to a bowl game this season and 0 teams with 6-6 records or better to be left out of bowl season.  This list is updated through all games played on November 5th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (28):

LSU- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Alabama, vs. Arkansas, vs. Western Kentucky, at Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% 

East Carolina- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte, vs. Memphis, at UTSA, at Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97% 

Miami-OH- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo, at Buffalo, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92% 

Iowa State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at TCU, vs. Kansas, at Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90% 

Toledo- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. at Miami-OH, vs. Ball State, at Central Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 89% 

Wake Forest- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. North Carolina, vs. Delaware, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 88% 

Duke- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at UConn, vs. Virginia, at North Carolina, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 86% 

Kansas State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma State, at Utah, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 83% 

Jacksonville State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at UTEP, vs. Kennesaw State, at FIU, vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% 

Western Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio, at Northern Illinois, at Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76% 

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Buffalo, at Kent State, vs. Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74% 

Arizona- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas, at Cincinnati, vs. Baylor, at Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72% 

Army- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, vs. Tulsa, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% 

Liberty- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Missouri State, at FIU, at Louisiana Tech, vs. Kennesaw State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69% 

NC State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, vs. Florida State, vs. North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% 

Baylor- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Arizona, vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% 

UTSA- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Florida, at Charlotte, vs. East Carolina, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% 

Arkansas State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, vs. UL-Lafayette, at App State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% 

App State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at James Madison, vs. Marshall, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% 

Washington State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisiana Tech, at James Madison, vs. Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% 

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, at South Carolina, vs. James Madison; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% 

California- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, at Stanford, vs. SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% 

Louisiana Tech- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Delaware, at Washington State, vs. Liberty, at Missouri State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% 

Northwestern- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Cal, vs. Michigan, vs. Minnesota, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

San Jose State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Air Force, at Nevada, at San Diego State, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%  

Clemson- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida State, at Louisville, vs. Furman, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% 

Texas State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Lafayette, at Southern Miss, vs UL-Monroe, vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% 

Auburn- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs. Mercer, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% 

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (39):

Florida State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, vs. Virginia Tech, at NC State, at Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Buffalo- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Central Michigan, vs. Miami-OH, vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Maryland- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, at Illinois, vs. Michigan, vs. Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

UCF- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at Texas Tech, vs. Oklahoma State, at BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Bowling Green- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Eastern Michigan, vs. Akron, at UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Rutgers- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Maryland, at Ohio State, vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Florida- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kentucky, at Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee, vs. Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

Marshall- Record: 4-4 Remaining Schedule: vs. James Madison, at Georgia State, at App. State, vs. Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Penn State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Indiana, at Michigan State, vs. Nebraska, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Kansas- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, at Iowa State, vs. Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

UL-Lafayette- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas State, at Arkansas State, vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Wyoming- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Fresno State, vs. Nevada, at Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% 

Mississippi State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia, at Missouri, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Temple- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Army, vs. Tulane, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%

Kentucky- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida, vs. Tennessee Tech, at Vanderbilt, at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%  

North Carolina- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Stanford, at Wake Forest, vs. Duke, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%  

Georgia Southern- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at App State, vs. Coastal Carolina, vs. Old Dominion, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31%  

Utah State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada, at UNLV, at Fresno State, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% 

UL Monroe- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, at Texas State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% 

UTEP- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Jacksonville State, at Missouri State, vs. New Mexico State, at Delaware; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% 

Kent State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Akron, vs. Central Michigan, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 26%

New Mexico State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kennesaw State, at Tennessee, at UTEP, vs. Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24% 

Florida Atlantic- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at Tulane, vs. UConn, vs. East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% 

South Carolina- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Texas A & M, vs. Coastal Carolina, vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% 

Rice- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UAB, vs. North Texas, at South Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19% 

Michigan State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Penn State, at Iowa, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 17% 

Air Force- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at San Jose State, at UConn, vs. New Mexico, at Colorado State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16% 

Ball State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Eastern Michigan, at Toledo, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15% 

FIU- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Middle Tennessee, vs. Liberty, vs. Jacksonville State, at Sam Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14% 

Tulsa- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida Atlantic, vs. Oregon State, at Army, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12% 

Colorado- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Arizona State, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10% 

UAB- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Rice, vs. North Texas, vs. South Florida, at Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% 

West Virginia- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado, at Arizona State, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7% 

Virginia Tech- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida State, vs. Miami-FL, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5% 

UCLA- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, at Ohio State, vs. Washington, at Southern Cal; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3% 

Stanford- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at North Carolina vs. California, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2% 

Colorado State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UNLV, at New Mexico, at Boise State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.3% 

Wisconsin- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington, at Indiana, vs. Illinois, at Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.2% 

Syracuse- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, at Notre Dame, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1% 

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Already Bowl Eligible (52): (1) Georgia Tech, (2) Louisville, (3) Miami-FL, (4) Pittsburgh, (5) SMU, (6) Virginia, (7) Memphis, (8) Navy, (9) North Texas, (10) South Florida, (11) Tulane, (12) Illinois, (13) Indiana, (14) Iowa, (15) Michigan, (16) Minnesota, (17) Nebraska, (18) Ohio State, (19) Oregon, (20) Southern Cal, (21) Washington, (22) Arizona State, (23) BYU, (24) Cincinnati, (25) Houston, (26) TCU, (27) Texas Tech, (28) Utah, (29) Kennesaw State, (30) Western Kentucky, (31) Ohio, (32) Boise State, (33) Fresno State, (34) Hawaii, (35) New Mexico, (36) San Diego State, (37) UNLV, (38) James Madison, (39) Old Dominion, (40) Southern Miss, (41) Troy, (42) Alabama, (43) Georgia, (44) Missouri, (45) Ole Miss, (46) Oklahoma, (47) Tennessee, (48) Texas, (49) Texas A & M, (50) Vanderbilt, (51) Notre Dame, (52) UConn

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (17):  (1) Boston College, (2) Charlotte, (3) Purdue, (4) Oklahoma State, (5) Delaware*, (6) Missouri State*, (7) Middle Tennessee, (8) Sam Houston, (9) Akron, (10) Eastern Michigan, (11) Northern Illinois, (12) UMass, (13) Nevada, (14) Oregon State, (15) Georgia State, (16) South Alabama, (17) Arkansas

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Current Stats (136 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 52

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 28  (80)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 17

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 39 (56)

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