For the 16th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on Saturday November 8, 2025.

ACC–  Georgia Tech/Duke (This wild conference title race got even wilder on Saturday!  Virginia and Louisville both picked up surprise losses so we now have a virtual five way tie for first place between Georgia Tech, SMU, Pittsburgh, SMU, and Duke, all of which have one conference loss.   At the end of the day, I think there will be just be two squads that finish ACC play at 7-1 and that will be Duke and Georgia Tech.  Thus, I am calling for a Yellow Jacket vs. Blue Devil rematch in Charlotte on December 6th with a berth in the College Football Playoff on the line.)  

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Big 12– Texas Tech/BYU  (This should be another close race in what could be another one bid major conference.  Right now, there is a three-way tie at the top between Texas Tech, BYU, and Cincinnatii.  Behind them, are three two-loss teams in Houston, Utah, , and Arizona State that are very much still in the mix for the conference title.  I think when it all plays out Texas Tech will secure one of the Big 12 title game berths by winning out and finishing league play at 8-1.  Behind them, will be two loss BYU, Cincinnati, and Arizona State.  Determining which of those three squads earns a trip to Jerry’s World, will come down to winning percentage of common opponents.  The only two teams that would come in to play for that one would be Utah and TCU.  BYU already beat Utah, and I am predicting them to beat TCU when they play them in Provo next Saturday.  Cincinnati already lost to Utah, and I am predicting them to lose to TCU when they play them in Fort Worth to end the season.  Arizona State already lost to Utah and beat TCU. Therefore, because the Cougars of Brigham Young, will have knocked off both of these squads based on my projections, they would be the ones heading to the Big 12 Championship Game to face off against Texas Tech in what will be a rematch of this Saturday’s game in Lubbock.) 

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Big Ten– Indiana/Ohio State (The Hoosiers and Buckeyes seem to be well on their way to to a huge 1 vs. 2 matchup of unbeaten teams in the Big Ten title game.  If either one of these teams falter down the stretch, the three teams with one conference loss: Michigan, Oregon, and Southern Cal would be back in the picture.  And while several tiebreakers could be in play at that point, the Hoosiers already have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oregon, based on their colossal upset in Eugene in a game I attended.)  

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SEC– Georgia/Alabama (Like the Big Ten, the SEC has a pair of unbeatens, Alabama and Texas A & M, followed by three one loss teams, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas.  However, unlike the Big Ten, the SEC unbeatens are much more likely to pick up losses the stretch of the season than the aforementioned Ohio State Buckeeys and Indiana Hoosiers.  I believe Bama finally loses again in Jordan-Hare, after dodging upset bids in the last two Iron Bowls played there, and A & M loses on the road to Texas.  Therefore, at the end of the season, I think we will be left with four one-loss SEC teams: Alabama, Texas A & M, Georgia, and Ole Miss.  The applicable tiebreaker in place here would be the same as the ACC, which is the combined win percentage of conference opponents.  And while these win percentages will be subject to change over the final weeks of the regular season, Georgia and Alabama both have a clear edge over A & M and Ole Miss in this tiebreaking metric as it currently stands.  As a result, I am predicting for these two familiar faces to collide in Atlanta for the fourth time in eight years.) 

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American– South Florida/North Texas (This conference championship will most likely determine which team earns the Group of Five bid to the College Football Playoff, and right now there are five teams virtually tied atop the standings with one conference loss on their resume: Navy, North Texas, Tulane, South Florida, and East Carolina.  Several of these squads play each other down the stretch of the season, so I think when all is said and done, the only teams that will win out and finish 7-1 in league play will be Tulane, South Florida and North Texas.  Per the American conference tiebreaking procedures, this three-way tie will be broken by a composite average of selected computer metrics consisting of Connolly SP+, SportSource TR 116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI).  Currently, the average of those rankings for each of those teams is as follows: Tulane: 53.5 , South Florida: 32.75, and North Texas: 41.  I am thus predicting a North Texas vs. South Florida rematch in the American title game to determine which squad earns the # 12 seed in the College Football Playoff.) 

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Conference USA– Jacksonville State/Kennesaw State (This league currently has two conference unbeatens, Kennesaw State and Jacksonville State, followed by two one-loss teams, Western Kentucky and Missouri State.  I think when all is said and done, Jacksonville State will finish conference play unbeaten, no one will have a singular loss, and Western Kentucky, and Kennesaw State will be tied for second place with a 6-2 conference record.  Because these two squads don’t play one another in the regular season, this tie would have to be broken with the same metric used in the American with a composite average of selected computer metrics consisting of Connolly SP+, SportSource TR 116 SOR, ESPN, SOR, and KPI.  Currently, the average of those rankings for each of those teams is as follows: Western Kentucky: 86.5 and Kennesaw State: 76.5.  I am thus predicting the Owls of Kennesaw to play in the Conference USA title game despite being picked in the preseason as one of the worst two or three teams in the entire country.) 

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MAC– Ohio/Miami-OH (After this past Tuesday night’s battle between the Redhawks and Bobcats, we are left with a four way tie atop the MAC standings between Ohio, Miami-OH, Buffalo, and Western Michigan, with all four teams currently possessing a 4-1 record.  Also, in contention is Central Michigan, Toledo, and Ball State who are sitting a game back at 3-2.  The Bobcats of Ohio have two tricky road games remaining against both Buffalo and Western Michigan, but ESPN Analytics gives them over a 55% chance of winning each of those contests, so I will predict them to win out and finish the season at 7-1, just as I did in the preseason. Miami-OH also is supposed to win each of its remaining games, so I am going to call for them to finish 7-1 as well.  Meanwhile, Buffalo and Western Michigan are both predicted to lose one down the stretch, so I am ultimately calling for a rematch of Tuesday night’s epic “Battle of the Bricks” in this year’s MAC championship game.)         

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Mountain West– Boise State/San Diego State (The Mountain West has one of the more interesting conference title game quagmires currently, as 7 of its 12 teams currently are within a game of a spot in the conference title game.  San Diego State and Boise are tied at the top at 4-1 and they will break that tie next Saturday with a head to head matchup at SDSU’s Snapdragon Stadium.  Waiting in the wings, just a game behind those two are:  Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, Utah State, and UNLV, are basically all tied for third with two conference losses.  When it all shakes out, I think Boise bounces back from their loss to Fresno and wins the conference regular season title outright by beating San Diego State next weekend and finishing 7-1.  The second spot will then be settled by a tiebreaker between a pair of 6-2 teams in San Diego State and UNLV.  Because these squads don’t play one another, the tiebreaker will be an average of selected computer metrics, albeit different metrics than those used by the American Athletic Conference and Conference USA.  The four computer rankings utilized by the Mountain West are: Anderson and Hester’s Rankings, the Colley Matrix, the Massey Ratings, and the Wolfe Ratings.  Unfortunately, the Anderson and Hester Rankings for 2025 are not out yet but each team’s average in the other three rankings are 44.0 for San Diego State and 57.3 for UNLV.  As a result, I am predicting an SDSU/Boise State rematch in the Mountain West Championship Game.)  

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Sun Belt East– James Madison (The Sun Belt is the last FBS conference with divisions so there are two conference title races to analyze here.  James Madison is the clear front runner currently in the East, as they are alone atop the standings at 6-0.  Coastal Carolina is just a game back and hosts the Dukes in the season finale, but I think the Chanticleers lose to Georgia Southern next Saturday which will allow JMU to clinch the Sun Belt East by taking care of App State next weekend.) 

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Sun Belt West– Southern Miss (The Golden Eagles of Southern Miss are the surprise leaders in the Sun Belt West with a perfect 5-0 record.  Troy is a game back in the standings at 4-1 and has a chance to knock off Southern Miss in their regular season finale.  However, I think the Trojans may lose to Old Dominion on Thursday which would enable Southern Miss to clinch by simply beating Texas State and South Alabama, two squads who are definitely struggling this season.)

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In addition to my analysis above of every conference/division title race, I always like to rank each conference or division title race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 10 of the division/conference championship races:

1. ACC (between Virginia, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU, Duke, Miami-FL, and Louisville)
2. Big 12 (between BYU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Houston, Utah, and Arizona State,)
3. SEC (between Texas A & M, Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas)
4. American (between Navy, North Texas, Tulane, South Florida, and East Carolina)
5. Mountain West (between San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, Utah State, and UNLV)
6. Conference USA (between Kennesaw State, Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, and Liberty)
7. Big Ten (between Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, and Southern Cal)
8. MAC (between Miami-OH, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, Toledo, and Ball State)
9. Sun Belt West (between Southern Miss and Troy)
10. Sun Belt East (between James Madison and Coastal Carolina)