The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back!  For the 16th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games or teams in the FBS transition process (i.e. Missouri State and Delaware this season).

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 37 teams on the list with 16 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 21 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 79 bowl eligible teams for 2025 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for 3 “backup teams” who are in the FBS transition process or possess a 5-7 record to make it to a bowl game this season and 0 teams with 6-6 records or better to be left out of bowl season.  This list is updated through all games played on Saturday November 15th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (16):

Clemson- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, vs. Furman, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99% (previous odds: 52%, 59%) 

Kansas State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Utah, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84% (previous odds: 83%, 83%)

Army- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81% (previous odds: 70%, 81%)

Miami-OH- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Buffalo, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77% (previous odds: 92%, 92%)

Washington State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule:, at James Madison, vs. Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 62%, 62%)

Duke- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Carolina, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 86%, 70%)

UTSA- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. East Carolina, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 66%, 63%) 

Arkansas State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at App State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 65%, 60%) 

NC State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida State, vs. North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 68%, 68%)

Baylor- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 67%)

Texas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe, vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 51%, 23%)

Marshall- Record: 5-5 Remaining Schedule: at App. State, vs. Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%  (previous odds: 42%, 30%)

FIU- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Jacksonville State, at Sam Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 14%, 22%)

Northwestern- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Minnesota, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 54%, 53%)

App State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 64%, 52%) 

Louisiana Tech- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Liberty, at Missouri State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% (previous odds: 55%, 51%) 

—————————————————————————————————–

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (21):

Rutgers- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 44%, 49%)

Georgia Southern- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Old Dominion, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 31%, 38%)

Florida State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at NC State, at Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 49%, 44%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas State, vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 38%, 45%)

Auburn- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Mercer, vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 50.5%, 42%) 

Kentucky- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt, at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 33%, 40%)  

Buffalo- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-OH, vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 48%, 48%)

Liberty- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana Tech, vs. Kennesaw State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38% (previous odds: 69%, 55%) 

Penn State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 41%, 28%)

Wyoming- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada, at Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 37%, 37%)

Utah State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Fresno State, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 30%, 36%) 

Kent State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Central Michigan, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 26%, 26%)

Kansas- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa State, vs. Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31% (previous odds: 39%, 31%)

North Carolina- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Duke, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% (previous odds: 32%, 35%)  

Florida Atlantic- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UConn, vs. East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (previous odds: 22%, 33%) 

Temple- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulane, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odds: 34%, 25%)

Rice- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, at South Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24% (previous odds: 19%, 24%) 

Maryland- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan, vs. Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 47%, 32%)

Mississippi State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 35%, 27%)

UCF- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma State, at BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 46%, 21%)

Ball State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3% (previous odds: 15%, 15%)

—————————————————————————————————————

Already Bowl Eligible (63): (1) Georgia Tech, (2) Louisville, (3) Miami-FL, (4) Pittsburgh, (5) SMU, (6) Virginia, (7) Memphis, (8) Navy, (9) North Texas, (10) South Florida, (11) Tulane, (12) Illinois, (13) Indiana, (14) Iowa, (15) Michigan, (16) Minnesota, (17) Nebraska, (18) Ohio State, (19) Oregon, (20) Southern Cal, (21) Washington, (22) Arizona State, (23) BYU, (24) Cincinnati, (25) Houston, (26) TCU, (27) Texas Tech, (28) Utah, (29) Kennesaw State, (30) Western Kentucky, (31) Ohio, (32) Boise State, (33) Fresno State, (34) Hawaii, (35) New Mexico, (36) San Diego State, (37) UNLV, (38) James Madison, (39) Old Dominion, (40) Southern Miss, (41) Troy, (42) Alabama, (43) Georgia, (44) Missouri, (45) Ole Miss, (46) Oklahoma, (47) Tennessee, (48) Texas, (49) Texas A & M, (50) Vanderbilt, (51) Notre Dame, (52) UConn, (53) East Carolina (previous odds: 97%), (54) Iowa State (previous odds: 90%), (55) Jacksonville State (previous odds: 78%), (56) Arizona (previous odds: 72%), (57) Coastal Carolina (previous odds: 60%), (58) Wake Forest (previous odds: 88%), (59) California (previous odds: 57%), (60) Western Michigan (previous odds: 76%, 76%), (61) Central Michigan (previous odds: 74%, 74%), (62) Toledo (previous odds: 89%, 89%), (63) LSU (previous odds: 98%, 96%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (36):  (1) Boston College, (2) Charlotte, (3) Purdue, (4) Oklahoma State, (5) Delaware*, (6) Missouri State*, (7) Middle Tennessee, (8) Sam Houston, (9) Akron, (10) Eastern Michigan, (11) Northern Illinois, (12) UMass, (13) Nevada, (14) Oregon State, (15) Georgia State, (16) South Alabama, (17) Arkansas, (18) Bowling Green (previous odds: 45%), (19) UTEP (previous odds; 28%), (20) Tulsa (previous odds: 12%), (21) Colorado (previous odds: 10%), (22) Stanford (previous odds: 2%), (23) Syracuse (previous odds: 0.1%), (24) Colorado State (previous odds: 0.3%), (25) San Jose State (previous odds: 53%, 34%), (26) Air Force (previous odds: 16%, 39%), (27) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 29%, 29%), (28) South Carolina (previous odds: 20%, 20%), (29) Michigan State (previous odds: 17%, 17%), (30) West Virginia (previous odds: 7%, 14%), (31) UAB (previous odds: 9%, 4%), (32) Wisconsin (previous odds: 0.2%, 2%), (33) New Mexico State (previous odds: 24%, 1%), (34) UCLA (previous odds: 3%, 0.1%), (35) Florida (previous odds: 43%, 19%), (36) Virginia Tech (previous odds: 5%, 5%)

—————————————————————————————————-

Current Stats (136 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 63

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 16  (79)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 36

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 21 (57)

—————————————————————————————————-