For the 16th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on Saturday November 15, 2025.

ACC-  Georgia Tech/Virginia (This wild conference title race seems to have whittled itself down to the four teams with only one league loss: Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh, and SMU.  The Yellow Jackets can clinch a berth in the title game with a home win over Pittsburgh next Saturday, which I am predicting them to do.  That will leave SMU and Virginia to vie for the second spot in Charlotte, and I think the Mustangs lose to either to Louisville next Sat or at Cal in their regular finale.  Meanwhile, the Cavs just need to beat the struggling Hokies at home on the Saturday after Thanksgiving to finish the season 7-1, so they have the much easier path.  As a result, I am going to call for Virginia to join Georgia Tech in a somewhat shocking ACC Championship Game.  If SMU, Georgia Tech, and Virginia all tie for first at 7-1 t in the conference standings, then the Jackets will still earn one of the spots in Charlotte because the only common opponent they have different records against is my Wake Forest squad and Georgia Tech beat the Deacs (albeit barely) and the Cavs and Mustangs both lost to them.  Meanwhile, the second spot in this scenario will come down to the conference win percentage of each team’s eight conference opponents.  SMU’s opponents have a combined record of 22-33 and Virginia’s opponents have a very similar 23-29 record so it is still unclear which team would earn the second ACC title game spot in this scenario.)

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Big 12– Texas Tech/Utah  (This is another wild and crazy conference title race in what could be another one bid major conference.  Right now, there is a tie at the top between Texas Tech and BYU, and if both of these squads win out, then they obviously play each other for the Big 12 title in Jerry’s World.  However, if one of them slips, and I am predicting BYU to lose at Cincinnati next Saturday, then all four of the two loss teams, Utah, Houston, Arizona State, and Cincinnati, will be back in the picture.  I do think Texas Tech wins out and secures one of the Big 12 title game berths, but the other bid I believe will be decided by a tiebreaker between the aforementioned BYU squad, their arch rival Utah, and Arizona State.  That is because I think ultimately Houston and Cincinnati drop out of this race as a result of losses in the coming weeks, as I am projecting both Houston and Cincy to lose their regular season finales at Baylor and at TCU respectively.  The tiebreaker for the second Big 12 title spot in this scenario would be decided the same way the SEC and ACC were with the combined winning percentage of conference opponents.  The combined record of BYU’s opponents is currently 31-34, Utah’s is 36-29, and Arizona State’s is 33-32.  And while those records are subject to change in the final two weeks of the regular season, I am going to call for Utah to hold off BYU and Arizona State in this metric and earn a rematch against the Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship Game.) 

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Big Ten– Indiana/Ohio State (The Hoosiers and Buckeyes seem to be well on their way to to a huge 1 vs. 2 matchup of unbeaten teams in the Big Ten title game.  If either one of these teams falter down the stretch, the three teams with one conference loss: Michigan, Oregon, and Southern Cal would be back in the picture.  And while several tiebreakers could be in play at that point, the Hoosiers already have the head-to-head tiebreaker over Oregon, based on their colossal upset in Eugene in a game I attended last month.)  

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SEC– Georgia/Ole Miss (The SEC title race got a major revamp this weekend as Alabama was upset by Oklahoma.  Georgia is now in the clubhouse at 7-1 with just two non-conference games left to play.  However, they have not locked up a spot in Atlanta yet, as Texas A & M is still a game ahead of them and Bama owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over them.  Nevertheless, I have picked Auburn to finally get over the hump against Bama all season long and I am going to stick with it despite the Tide’s loss today.  That loss in Jordan-Hare would likely knock Alabama out of both the SEC Title Game and the College Football Playoff picture. I also believe A & M loses on the road to Texas, so at the end of the season, I think we will be left with three one-loss SEC teams: Texas A & M,  Georgia, and Ole Miss.  The applicable tiebreaker in place here would be the same as the ACC, which is the combined win percentage of conference opponents.  Currently, Georgia’s conference opponents have a record of 25-28, Ole Miss’ have a record 20-36, and Texas A & M’s have a record of 15-39.  And while this tiebreaking metric is subject to change over the final couple of weeks, I believe Georgia and Ole Miss will beat out A & M in this metric at the end of the year and create an SEC Championship rematch of their epic regular season battle.)

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American– North Texas/Tulane (This conference championship will most likely determine which team earns the Group of Five bid to the College Football Playoff, and right now there are four teams virtually tied atop the standings with one conference loss on their resume: Navy, Tulane, North Texas, and East Carolina.  The Midshipmen only have one conference game left but that matchup is a road game against Memphis which I think will be a loss.  East Carolina has two winnable games remaining, against UTSA and FAU, but both contests are on the road so I am predicting that they drop one of those two.  Meanwhile, North Texas just needs to beat Temple and Rice to finish league play at 7-1, which I am predicting them to do.  Tulane’s path to 7-1 is even easier as they just need to beat Temple and lowly Charlotte in the final two weekends of the season.  That will leave Tulane and North Texas as the only two one loss teams in the conference, which will make it easy to figure out who plays in this conference title game.  However, it will not be easy to figure out who will host the American Athletic Championship Game, as these two teams did not play each other in the regular season.  That determination will likely have to be broken by examining a composite average of selected computer metrics consisting of Connolly SP+, SportSource TR 116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.  Currently, the average of those rankings for each of those teams is 39.5 for North Texas and 51.8 for Tulane, so I believe the Mean Green will end up hosting this contest.) 

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Conference USA– Jacksonville State/Kennesaw State (The Gamecocks of Jacksonville State knocked off the Owls of Kennesaw on Saturday to emerge as the only unbeaten team in this league.  I am going to pick them to continue their winning ways at FIU and at home against Western Kentucky in their final two contests and clinch one of the spots in the C-USA conference championship game.  The other spot will be earned by either one of the two one-loss teams who are eligible for the league title game: Western Kentucky and  Kennesaw State.  Missouri State is also in there will one loss but they are ineligible to play for the conference championship because of their FCS transition status.  The Hilltoppers are a half game up on the Owls in the standings but I believe they lose their season finale against Jacksonville State to finish conference play at 6-2.  Meanwhile, I am calling for Kennesaw State to knock off Missouri State and Liberty to also finish C-USA at 6-2.   Because these two squads didn’t play one another in the regular season, this tie would have to be broken with the same metric used in the American Athletic Conference with a composite average of selected computer metrics consisting of Connolly SP+, SportSource TR 116 SOR, ESPN SOR, and KPI.  Currently, the average of those rankings for each of those teams is as follows: Western Kentucky: 85  and Kennesaw State 78.8: .  I am thus predicting the Owls of Kennesaw to play in the Conference USA title game despite being picked in the preseason as one of the worst two or three teams in the entire country.) 

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MAC- Western Michigan/Miami-OH (After this past Tuesday and Wednesday night’s MAC-tion, we are left with one unlikely team atop the standings in Western Michigan at 5-1 followed by five teams with two conference losses, Central Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, Buffalo, and Miami-OH.  The frontrunning Broncos still have two road games to play, but both are against league bottom-dwellers, Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan, so I am predicting Western Michigan wins out to claim one of the two conference title game spots.  The other spot will likely be decided by a tiebreaker between multiple 6-2 squads, and I am predicting those teams to be Ohio, Toledo, and Miami-OH, the three preseason favorites to win the league.  Because Toledo and Ohio don’t play one another, the applicable tiebreaker is record versus common opponents, and these teams will only have two common opponents in which they have different records against: Western Michigan and Ball State.  I am calling for Miami-OH to finish 2-0 against these teams, Toledo to finish 1-1, and Ohio is already 0-2 against them.  As a result, Miami-OH will thus go to the conference title game under this scenario which is why I am picking them to make it to Detroit for the third consecutive season.  Interestingly enough, Miami has lost to both of the teams I am predicting them to end up tied with, Toledo and Ohio, but because all three teams are not common opponents, then the Redhawks will not be precluded from the title game by those results.)      

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Mountain West– San Diego State/UNLV (The Mountain West has one of the more interesting conference title game quagmires currently, as half of its league members are within a game of a spot in the conference title game.  San Diego State has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the league as a result of their win over Boise on Saturday night.  Meanwhile, waiting in the wings, just a game behind those two are: Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, and UNLV, who are basically all tied for second at 4-2 in league play .When it all shakes out, I think the Aztecs of SDSU win out to secure one spot in the Mountain West Championship Game.  I then think the second spot will  be settled by a tiebreaker between a pair of 6-2 teams in UNLV and Fresno State, as I believe they win out while Boise loses on the road to Utah State in their season finale, New Mexico loses to the aforementioned San Diego State squad, and Hawaii loses at UNLV next Friday.  Because these squads don’t play one another in the regular season, the tiebreaker will be an average of selected computer metrics, albeit different metrics than those used by the American Athletic Conference and Conference USA.  The four computer rankings utilized by the Mountain West are: Anderson and Hester’s Rankings, the Colley Matrix, the Massey Ratings, and the Wolfe Ratings.  Unfortunately, the Anderson and Hester Rankings for 2025 are not out yet, but UNLV is ranked significantly higher than Fresno in the other three ratings, so I believe the Rebels will earn the second berth into the Mountain West Title Game.)

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Sun Belt East– James Madison (The Dukes became the first team in the country to clinch a bid into their conference’s title game by virtue of their win over App State and Coastal’s loss to Georgia Southern.)

Sun Belt West– Southern Miss (Southern Miss’ surprising loss to a Texas State squad that was winless in conference play has added some intrigue to this division title race.  The Golden Eagles (5-1) still have a one game lead over Arkansas State and Troy (4-2) with two games left for each to play.  The Trojans of Troy and Southern Miss play each other in the season finale in Hattiesburg, and if the Golden Eagles win that one and next week’s contest at South Alabama then they will win the Sun Belt West outright.  I am still picking them to bounce back and win both of those contests to claim this division crown.  However, if Troy does knock off Southern Miss, then we could have a wild three-way tie atop the division standings with Troy, Southern Miss, and Arkansas State all finishing 6-2 with all three having a 1-1 record against one another.  If that was to happen, the applicable tiebreaker would be division win percentage and because Troy would only have one loss within the Sun Belt West and both USM and Arkansas State would have two, then Troy would be the division champs.  As a result, if Troy and Southern Miss both win next week, then the matchup between the Golden Eagles and Trojans will be a de facto division title game.)  

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In addition to my analysis above of every conference/division title race, I always like to rank each conference or division title race based on the intrigue each provides and the importance each holds in the overall college football landscape.  Here are my current rankings of all 10 of the division/conference championship races:

1. ACC (between Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, and SMU)
2. Big 12 (between Texas Tech, Utah, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, and Arizona State)
3. American (between Navy, North Texas, Tulane, and East Carolina)
4. SEC (between Texas A & M, Alabama, Georgia, and Ole Miss)
5. Mountain West (between San Diego State, Boise State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, and UNLV)
6. Conference USA (between Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and Western Kentucky)
7. Big Ten (between Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, and Southern Cal)
8. MAC (between Miami-OH, Ohio, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Toledo)
9. Sun Belt West (between Southern Miss, Arkansas State and Troy)
10. Sun Belt East (already clinched by James Madison)