The most comprehensive analysis of college football bowl eligibility is back! For the 16th consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not. Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team. Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game. That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling. Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games or teams in the FBS transition process (i.e. Missouri State and Delaware this season).
All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 21 teams on the list with 7 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 14 predicted to fall short. As of now, I’m projecting there to be 79 bowl eligible teams for 2025 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry). Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am calling for 1 “backup team” who are in the FBS transition process or possess a 5-7 record to make it to a bowl game this season and 0 teams with 6-6 records or better to be left out of bowl season. This list is updated through all games played on Saturday November 22nd.
Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (7):
Kansas State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73% (previous odds: 83%, 83%, 84%)
UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 38%, 45%, 45%)
Washington State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% (previous odds: 62%, 62%, 67%)
Texas State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% (previous odds: 51%, 23%, 55%)
Penn State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 41%, 28%, 37%)
Marshall- Record: 5-5 Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 42%, 30%, 54%)
App State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 64%, 52%, 51%)
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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (14):
Baylor- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 67%, 67%, 56%)
Arkansas State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at App State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 65%, 60%, 60%)
Georgia Southern- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 31%, 38%, 48%)
Rutgers- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 44%, 49%, 49%)
Florida State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 49%, 44%, 47%)
Auburn- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 50.5%, 42%, 42%)
Army- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 70%, 81%, 81%)
Buffalo- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% (previous odds: 48%, 48%, 40%)
Kentucky- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 33%, 40%, 41%)
Kansas- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (previous odds: 39%, 31%, 31%)
UCF- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 46%, 21%, 20%)
Mississippi State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 35%, 27%, 21%)
Temple- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 34%, 25%, 25%)
Rice- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16% (previous odds: 19%, 24%, 24%)
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Already Bowl Eligible (72): (1) Georgia Tech, (2) Louisville, (3) Miami-FL, (4) Pittsburgh, (5) SMU, (6) Virginia, (7) Memphis, (8) Navy, (9) North Texas, (10) South Florida, (11) Tulane, (12) Illinois, (13) Indiana, (14) Iowa, (15) Michigan, (16) Minnesota, (17) Nebraska, (18) Ohio State, (19) Oregon, (20) Southern Cal, (21) Washington, (22) Arizona State, (23) BYU, (24) Cincinnati, (25) Houston, (26) TCU, (27) Texas Tech, (28) Utah, (29) Kennesaw State, (30) Western Kentucky, (31) Ohio, (32) Boise State, (33) Fresno State, (34) Hawaii, (35) New Mexico, (36) San Diego State, (37) UNLV, (38) James Madison, (39) Old Dominion, (40) Southern Miss, (41) Troy, (42) Alabama, (43) Georgia, (44) Missouri, (45) Ole Miss, (46) Oklahoma, (47) Tennessee, (48) Texas, (49) Texas A & M, (50) Vanderbilt, (51) Notre Dame, (52) UConn, (53) East Carolina (previous odds: 97%), (54) Iowa State (previous odds: 90%), (55) Jacksonville State (previous odds: 78%), (56) Arizona (previous odds: 72%), (57) Coastal Carolina (previous odds: 60%), (58) Wake Forest (previous odds: 88%), (59) California (previous odds: 57%), (60) Western Michigan (previous odds: 76%, 76%), (61) Central Michigan (previous odds: 74%, 74%), (62) Toledo (previous odds: 89%, 89%), (63) LSU (previous odds: 98%, 96%), (64) Miami-OH (previous odds: 92%, 92%, 77%), (65) NC State (previous odds: 68%, 68%, 58%), (66) Northwestern (previous odds: 54%, 53%, 52%), (67) Louisiana Tech (previous odds: 55%, 51%, 50.5%), (68) UTSA (previous odds: 66%, 63%, 65%), (69) Duke (previous odds: 86%, 70%, 66%), (70) Clemson (previous odds: 52%, 59%, 99%), (71) FIU (previous odds: 14%, 22%, 53%), (72) Utah State (previous odds: 30%, 36%, 34%)
Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (36): (1) Boston College, (2) Charlotte, (3) Purdue, (4) Oklahoma State, (5) Delaware*, (6) Missouri State*, (7) Middle Tennessee, (8) Sam Houston, (9) Akron, (10) Eastern Michigan, (11) Northern Illinois, (12) UMass, (13) Nevada, (14) Oregon State, (15) Georgia State, (16) South Alabama, (17) Arkansas, (18) Bowling Green (previous odds: 45%), (19) UTEP (previous odds; 28%), (20) Tulsa (previous odds: 12%), (21) Colorado (previous odds: 10%), (22) Stanford (previous odds: 2%), (23) Syracuse (previous odds: 0.1%), (24) Colorado State (previous odds: 0.3%), (25) San Jose State (previous odds: 53%, 34%), (26) Air Force (previous odds: 16%, 39%), (27) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 29%, 29%), (28) South Carolina (previous odds: 20%, 20%), (29) Michigan State (previous odds: 17%, 17%), (30) West Virginia (previous odds: 7%, 14%), (31) UAB (previous odds: 9%, 4%), (32) Wisconsin (previous odds: 0.2%, 2%), (33) New Mexico State (previous odds: 24%, 1%), (34) UCLA (previous odds: 3%, 0.1%), (35) Florida (previous odds: 43%, 19%), (36) Virginia Tech (previous odds: 5%, 5%), (37) Kent State (previous odds: 26%, 26%, 33%), (38) Ball State (previous odds: 15%, 15%, 3%), (39) Wyoming (previous odds: 37%, 37%, 35%), (40) Liberty (previous odds: 69%, 55%, 38%), (41) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 22%, 33%, 28%), (42) North Carolina (previous odds: 32%, 35%, 29%), (43) Maryland (previous odds: 47%, 32%, 22%)
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Current Stats (136 FBS Teams):
Already Bowl Eligible: 72
Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 7 (79)
Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 43
Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 14 (57)
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Ramblings of the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist 
There are only 80 bowl slots for FBS teams, not 82. I assume you’re including the Celebration Bowl, but that’s for FCS teams (the champs of the two HBCU conferences: the MEAC and the SWAC).
Wow- I didn’t realize the Bahamas Bowl had been cancelled so you’re correct. Based on this revelaton, it looks like there will only be one extra team that I am predicting to be needed to fill a spot. I guess it will come down to either Delaware (assuming they beat UTEP) or Missouri State.
Well, with all due respect, that’s the other issue I have with your analysis… 😉
You’re assuming all favorites will win and all underdogs will lose, but that’s very unlikely given the percentages.
Excluding the 3 games between 2 teams that are both 1 win away from becoming eligible, of the 15 teams that are 1 win away, 4 are favorites and 11 are underdogs.
You’re assuming only 4 of the 15 will win, but the odds suggest otherwise. If you simulate based on the percentages you list, on average, 6.2 of the 15 will win.
In other words, it’s very likely all slots will be filled by eligible teams, and there will probably even be a team or 2 with a 6-6 or better record that gets left out.
I understand your logic, upsets happen, but at the same time, I am not going to place a 5-6 team on the “likely to be bowling” list if they are an underdog in their last game. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out this weekend.