The Madness is almost upon us! We are less than 20 days from Selection Sunday so it it time for me to post my annual list of potential March Madness Cinderella stories. Typically, I write two different articles for this column, an “Early Edition” which is published in late January and a “Conference Tourney Edition” that is published in early March, but because I am off to a later than usual start for my college basketball coverage this season, I am going to combine the January and March columns into this one February article.

While almost all mid-major college basketball teams have the chance to play Cinderella come Christmas Day (aka the first round of the NCAA tourney), it is particularly special when these teams have an inspiring/sentimental storyline.  Often times this involves a squad making its first trip to the Big Dance (see Northern Colorado in 2011).  Other times there is a likable coach who warms the hearts of the nation (see Pete Carril in 1994, Andy Enfeld in 2012).  Inevitably, when the second week of March comes around, these stories will come to fruition.  In the meantime, it’s worth looking at the standings and checking out which mid-major conference leaders/contenders and other probable NCAA Tournament teams could inspire us during the first few weeks of March. 

It is worth noting that I have a pretty good track record of identifying potential March Madness Cinderella Stories. For instance, I chronicled Loyola-Chicago in my early edition of this article in 2018, almost two months before the world discovered Sister Jean and the Ramblers. Then, in 2022, I wrote about the FAU Owls in this article, well before their Cinderella march to the Final Four.  So without further ado, here is my of potential Cinderella teams in 2026. Only schools currently in first or second place of their respective conferences or squads currently in the hunt for an NCAA tourney at-large bid will be included in this column.  They are listed in alphabetical order by conference.

UMBC (America East)- We have yet to see either of the 16 seeds who pulled off the ultimate 16 over 1 upsets (UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson) make a return trip to the Dance after their epic first round triumphants. The Retrievers have a great chance of making it back to the tourney this season though, as they currently lead the America East standings by a game and half over the rest of the field. Also, keep in mind that all of the America East conference tourney games are played at home sites, so if UMBC does win the regular season title, they will get to host each one of their postseason games. And if the Retrievers do end up making a return trip to the Big Dance this season, they will likely be in the same spot as they were in 2018…a dangerous 16 seed.

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NJIT (America East)- If aforementioend UMBC was to falter in the American East tournament, then the Cinderela Highlanders of NIJT would be in prime position to earn their first ever NCAA tourney bid. NJIT is currently is tied for second in tise league with a 10-4 mark that includes a road win over league powerhouse Vermont, who also currently sits at 10-4. Not only has NJIT never danced before in their 15 year history in Division 1, but they have consistently been one of the worst teams in all of Division 1 during that time period. In fact, they arguably had the worst season in college basketball history in 2007-2008 when they posted a 0-29 record in which they lost every game by double digits. And while NJIT did have some successess in the late 2010’s which included three postseason trips to the CIT, they have been really bad the couple of seasons finishing dead last in America East play in 2024 and 2025 with overall records of 7-21 and 6-25 respectively. This would be the turnaround story of the year in college basketball if this squad could find its way into the Big Dance.

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Central Arkansas (Atlantic Sun)– The Bears from Central Arkansas are another Big Dance virgin that is in prime position to break into the NCAA tournament field for the first time this season. Right now, this squad sits alone in second place in the ASun standings with a 13-3 league and have also won 11 of their last 12 games! In addition, they have a huge game coming up on Wednesday night when the Bears get their first shot at the league leader, Austin Peay. This Central Arkansas turnaround has been nothing short of reamrkable, as they finished tied for 10th in the ASun last year with a meager 4-14 conference record. Now second year head coach John Shulman, who already has two NCAA tournament appearances on his resume (Chattanooga in 2005 and 2009), is looking to take his new school to the Dance for the first time.

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Saint Louis (Atlantic 10)– It looks like we’re finally going to get to see Cream Abdul-Jabar in the Big Dance! Robbie Avila, and his signature rec spects and tattoo sleeve (see picuted below), has been on the doorstep of an NCAA tourney for the past two seasons, only to fall just short. In 2024, his Indiana State Sycamores were snubbed from an at-large berth by the committee after a close loss to Drake in their conference title game. Last year, after transferring to Saint Louis alongisde his head coach Josh Schertz, Avila led the Billikens to a red hot start in conference play but then saw the team fizzle down the stretch. This year, barring some shocking unforeseen circumstances, Avila will finally be putting on dancing shoes, as his Saint Louis squad stands at 25-2 overall and is currently projected to be a 6 or 7 seed by most bracket projections, including my own.

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SMU (ACC)– The Mustangs have vastly improved their basketball program over the past couple of decades, but they are still searching for their first NCAA tournament win since knocking off Notre Dame in 1988! Now, led by former Wake Foest point guard Boopie Miller, SMU is in prime position to not only get their first tourney bid since 2017, but also to end their 38 year drought with a victory in the dance, as they are currently projected as a 9 seed in this week’s Brad-ketology.

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California (ACC)– Mark “Mad Dog” Madsen has followed his successful college and NBA playing career with a productive career as a head coach. However, surprisingly, he has zero NCAA tourney appearances on his coaching resume, as he has not participated in the Big Dance since he led Stanford to the Final Four as a player in 1998. Can he breakthrough by taking Stanford’s arch rival Cal there for the first time in ten years? Right now, the Golden Bears are squarely on the bubble for an at-large bid, as I have them six teams outside the current cut line.

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Winthrop (Big South)– Unlike most of the teams on this list, the Eagles of Winthrop have danced a plenty in the past couple of decades. However, they have never done it under head coach Mark Prosser (pictured below), who every college basketball fan should be cheering for, after his dad, Skip, tragically died of a heart attack in 2007 during his tenure as Wake Forest head coach. This is Prosser’s fifth year in Rock Hill, and while he has stood on the door step of a Big South title and subsequent automatic NCAA tournament bid during his tenture (twice losing in the conference title game), he has yet to breakthrough. This could be his year though, as the Eagles stand alone in second place in the Big South standings with an impressive 12-2 mark in conference play.

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Nebraska (Big Ten)– The Cornhuskers still hold the dubious distinction of being the only Power 5 school never to win an NCAA tournament game, holding an all-time Big Dance record of 0-8. Believe it or not, the Huskers were actually the higher seeded team in four of those eight games! Nevertheless, Nebraska should have the best chance is has ever have had at getting that elusive NCAA tournney victory in 2026, as the Huskers are this year’s surprise team in college basketball currently possessing an incredible 23-4 overall record and being projected as a 3 seed in most bracket projections. Rarely, can a first round victory by a heavily favored 3 seed be considerd an historic accomplishment, but in Nebraska’s case, their potential 3 over 14 victory would be a milestore for the program.

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Green Bay (Horizon)– Doug Gottlieb was a controversial ESPN basketball pundit for years before becoming the head coach at Green Bay, and he has been the subject of multiple controversies during his two year tenure there as well. In fact, this team and their provocative coach were the laughing stock of college basketball last year, as they stumbled to an atrocious 4-28 record that featured a 21 game losing streak which spanned from late November 2024 to mid-February 2025. Nevertheless, Gottlieb has suprised everyone by turning the Phoenix around this season, as currently Green Bay currently stands tied for second in the win column in the Horizon league with an 11-8 conference record.

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Merrimack (MAAC)– In just their fourth year as a transitional Division 1 member in 2023, the Warriors of Merrimack actually won the Northeast Conference Championship over Fairleigh Dickinson. Unfortunately, they could not compete in the Big Dance because of their transitional status, so FDU went to the tourney in their place and shocked the world by becoming just the second 16 seed to beat a 1 seed with their triumphant over Purdue. Now, Merrimack is eligible to earn their first trip to the Big Dance, and they are in a great position to do so as they have a four game lead atop the Metro Atlantic Standings entering the final week of regular season play. And no matter what happens in their last two games, the Warriors will be the # 1 seed in the upcoming Metro Atlantic conference tournament.

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Marist (MAAC)– If the aforementioned Warriors were to falter in their conference tourney, the Red Foxes of Marist will be in prime position to end their lengthy NCAA tournament drought. Marist hasn’t danced since 1987, but they are currently tied for second in the win column in the MAAC standings with a 12-7 conference record.

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Miami-OH (MAC)– The Redhawks haven’t danced in 19 years but the real intrigue here is how long this team go before they lose a game and what happens if they do lose. Miami-OH is the last remaining unbeaten in Division 1, and despite the fact they have survived several scares and don’t have any Quad 1 wins a 27-0 records in college basketball these days is truly remarkable. The question that everyone is asking though if this team were to lose in its conference tourney, would they still be given an at-large bid? I could honestly see it going either way at this point. If Miami does make it into the bracket, either via automatic berth or at-large bid, the Redhawks won’t be a team anyone is looking forward to playing based on their impressive track record in March. The Rehawks have made it to the tournament five times in the last 35 years, and in each of those five appearanes, they either pulled at least one upset off as a double digit seed or took a heavily favored team down to the wire. See results below.

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Tennessee State (Ohio Valley)– One of the most wide open conferences in the country this year is the Ohio Valley where we currently have a three way tie for first place in the league amongst teams who have already picked up five conference lossess. One of the squads tied for first is the Tennessee State Tigers who are looking to end a 32 year NCAA tournmaent drought this season. In fact, the last time TSU made it to the Big Dance in 1994 they were led by the future NBA lottery pick, Carlos Rogers, and they squared off against Rick Pitino’s Kentucky squad (see game photo below). Now, Tennessee State once again has a great shot of making it to the Big Dance in 2026.

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Navy (Patriot)– The Midshipmen have been a consistent winner during Ed DeChellis’ 15 year run as head coach there, but one thing they still haven’t done since 1998 is make the NCAA men’s baskettball tournament. Navy’s 28 year tournament drought has a great chance of ending this year though, as the Midshipmen are the stand alone front runners in the Patriots League with a 15-1 conference record that is four games better than the rest of the league. Also, like the America East tournament discussed above, the Patriot League postseason games are all played at home sites, so someone will have to knock off the Midshipmen in Annapolis to deny them a league title and subsequent bid to this year’s NCAA tournament. Navy has already made history this season by winning its first outright regular season championship since 1997. Can they take one more step and get back to the Big Dance as well?

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Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)– “The Bethunies” as I have affectionately dubbed them over years are a feel good story this season for multiple reasons. First of all, they have never danced in their 44 year history as a Division 1 progam. And in addition, they are coached by the lovable Reggie Theus who was a two-time NBA All-Star in the 1980’s before coming a television star on “Hang Time” in the 1990’s before becoming a successful coach in both the NBA and college in the 2000’s. Theus led New Mexico State to the Big Dance in 2007; now can he do the same 19 years later with the Bethunies? He will have a great chance of doing so this March as the Wildcats currently have a 2.5 game lead in first place of the SWAC standings.

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St. Thomas-Minnesota (Summit League)– Like the aformentioned Merrimack Warriors, the Tommies of St. Thomas (great nickname by the way) are a new Division 1 program that has already had a great amount of success at the highest level of collegiate basketball. In fact, this is St. Thomas’ first year that they are eligible for the NCAA tournament but they were Summit League runners-up in both the regular season and postseason last year and finished in the top half of the league in each of the two season prior to that. This year, the Tommies have a good chance of winning the Summt League crown and earning their first-ever bid to the NCAA tournament as they are in second place in the current conference standings with a 10-4 league record.

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Texas State (Sun Belt)– The Bobcats have become a Sun Belt power in football over the past few seasons, but they are still looking for their first NCAA tournament berth in basketball since 1997. This year, they are currently tied for second in the win column in the Sun Belt standings, despite being predicted to finish 8th in the preseason conference rankings.

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Santa Clara (West Coast)– When Gonzaga departs the WCC for the Mountain West at the end of this season, the majority of this league will rejoice because they will once again have a chance at winning their league title and making it back to the NCAA tournament. In fact, five of the 12 teams in this league are experiencing NCAA tourney droughts of over 20 years due to Gonzaga’s (and Saint Mary’s to a lesser extent) dominance of the West Coast Conference in men’s basketball. One of those squads experiencing a lengthy drought is Santa Clara who hasn’t danced since NBA Hall of Famer Steve Nash’s senior season in 1996. Neverthless, the Broncos have a great chance of ending that drought in 2026 with an at-large bid, as they currently have a 22-6 record and are slotted just inside the NCAA tourney cut line on most bracket projections, including my own. Legendary head coach Herb Sendek has already coached three different schools to an NCAA tournament bid (Miami-OH, NC State, and Arizona State). Can he make it four with Santa Clara?

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Utah Valley (WAC)– The Wolverines have been oh so close to winning the WAC title and making it to the NCAA tournament since transitioning to a full-time Division 1 member in 2013. In fact, they have finished 1st place in the regular season standings on four different occasions only to falter in the WAC tourney afterwards. Now, they once again find themselves atop the WAC standings, but this time around, Utah Valley is not only going to have to have a breakthrough on the basketball court in March to make it to the Big Dance but also have a breakthrough in the courtroom. That is because Utah Valley is currently involved in litigation with the WAC over their exit fees and as a result, the WAC has declared them ineligible to win their league tourney in 2026. In response, Utah Valley is seeking a restraining order to allow them to play in the upcoming WAC basketball tournament. If allowed to play, the Wolverines will likely be the # 1 seed and betting favorite to win the tourney and make it to the Big Dance for the first time.

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Utah Tech (WAC)– If the aforementioned Wolverines falter in the WAC tourney, or are prohibited from playing in it altogether, then other sentimenal Cinderella stories coulde emerge from this conference tournament next month. That is because the two teams currently tied for second place in the loss column in the WAC (Utah Tech and California Bapticst) are both Big Dance Virgins as well, who are each seeking an inaugural trip to the NCAA tournament in their first few seasons as a full-fledged Division 1 member (Utah Tech joined in 2021 and Cal Baptist in 2019).

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California Baptist (WAC)– see Utah Tech comment above