Ramblings from the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist

In addition to my picks of the week entries, I will also be publish my weekly upsets to watch out.  Last year I had particular success with longshot underdogs of 10 points or more.  I picked one of these teams each week and 10 of 14 covered, and 5 won straight up.  These are ordered from smallest underdog to largest, and the value in each parentheses represents the number of points by which each team is currently an underdog according to the World Sports Exchange.

Pittsburgh (+2.0) vs. Utah- This is a solid first week matchup, as both of these teams are conference title contenders in their respective leagues.  It should be the only competitive contest on this opening Thursday, but in the end, Dion Lewis should prove too much for Utah’s inexperienced defense.

UCLA (+2.5) vs. Kansas State-  This game could go either way, but I go to give the nod to the Bruins here since they have more guys coming back than the Wildcats from a team that was slightly better  last season.  The irony is that even if UCLA wins, K-State has a much better chance of bowling than the Bruins solely based on  each team’s remaining schedule.  In fact, this is one of the seven or eight games that the Bruins will be an underdog this season, as they begin their trek through one of the toughest schedules in the country.

UConn (+3.0) vs. Michigan- See analysis for this game in my weekly picks entry.

Washington (+3.0) vs. Brigham Young- See analysis for this game in my weekly picks entry.

Virginia Tech (+3.0) vs. Boise State- I have to reveal my bias here and go ahead and say that I”m hoping and praying that the Broncos win this one.  And while I definitely think they can, it’s definitely not going to be easy.  Boise hasn’t played a BCS conference team in a full calendar year, so they’ll have to make a lot of adjustments to match wits against the size and strength of the Hokies.  Also, this is hardly a neutral site game, as Virginia Tech will be playing in nearby Washington D.C.  This contest could go either way, and while I still think Boise should win, it’s hard not to find this line a little enticing.

Double-Digit Longshot of the Week: Oregon State (+13.0) vs. TCU- Sadly enough, it’s quite possible that both of the non-BCS national title contenders (Boise and TCU) could go down in the first week.  I love the Horned Frogs this year, but the Beavers are my surprise pick to win the Pac-10, as they return 15 starters (including both Rodgers brothers) from a team that came within a possession of the Pac-10 crown last season.

Brad’s world famous weekly college football picks are back!  I finished with an impressive 78-62 mark last year, and I hope to replicate that kind of success this season.  These spreads are based on the current lines according to the World Sports Exchange, and they are ordered based on my personal confidence in each.

Pick # 1: Iowa State (-3.0) vs. Northern Illinois- Here’s my first lock of the week in 2010!  This is one of those first week spreads that seem to be based way too much on last year’s results.  Northern Illinois was solid last year, but the Huskies will struggle early this season as they try to break-in a new QB.

Pick # 2: Fresno State (-2.5)  vs. Cincinnati- The Bulldogs almost beat a top 5 Cincy team last year on the road.  Now, they get a depleted Bearcat team at home.  These are the kind of games that Pat Hill lives for.  There is no way Fresno is losing this one.

Pick # 3: Clemson (-23.0) vs. North Texas- General Rule: It’s a good bet to take BCS conference contenders favored by less than 30 against creampuff opponents at home.  This line is especially enticing because of Clemson’s propensity to blowout inferior opponents in Death Valley.  I would personally like the Tigers to cover a 22-point spread at home against several ACC opponents.

Pick # 4: Oregon State (+13.0) vs. TCU- I love the Horned Frogs this year, but the Beavers are my surprise pick to win the Pac-10, as they return 15 starters (including both Rodgers brothers) from a team that came within a possession of the Pac-10 crown last season.  TCU should win this one but not by more than a TD.

Pick # 5: Kentucky (-3.0) vs. Louisville- Kentucky has dominated Louisville in recent years and while the Cardinals will improve under Charlie Strong, I don’t see them challenging the Cats in his opener.

Pick # 6: Army (-9.5) vs. Eastern Michigan- I’m sure many of you looked at this line and couldn’t believe that Army is favored by 8.5 against another Division 1-A team on the road. But believe it or not, the Black Knights will cover this spread easily.  The Knights will be a little better than they were last year, and the Eagles are by far the worst team in FBS this season.

Pick # 7: Navy (-6.5) vs. Maryland- This is an intriguing intrastate battle that should be fairly one-sided.  After last year’s 2-10 season, the morale is low in College Park, and the Terps will continue to struggle this season, as inexperience at quarterback and in the secondary will greatly hinder their success.  Meanwhile, the Midshipmen actually have the talent and more importantly the schedule to run the table this season.

Pick # 8: Georgia (-28.0) vs. UL-Lafayette- See analysis for Clemson/North Texas game above.  This one worries me a bit more though because of Georgia’s inexperience at QB.

Pick # 9: UConn (+3.0) vs. Michigan- This line is based solely on tradition, pure and simple.  There is still a certain aura and mystique surrounding Michigan and the Big House, despite their recent mediocrity.  When push comes to shove, this is a game between a bottom-dwelling Big 10 team and a Big East title contender.  The Huskies will win here.

Pick # 10: Washington (+3.0) vs. Brigham Young- I’m actually not crazy about this spread, but since I’m picking Washington to be one of the top surprise teams this season and BYU to be a major disappointment team, then I better put my money where my mouth here and go with the Huskies.  Washington has a wealth of experience (18 returning starters), a superstar quarterback (Jake Locker), and a dynamic, young coach (Steve Sarkisian).  Meanwhile, the Cougars are in the midst of a rare rebuilding season.

Please go to www.cfrapoll.com to see the preseason CFRA poll which was published yesterday.

Also, I’m happy to announce that the CFRA’s re-emergence has been officially been acknowledged by the NCAA. Here is a link to the 2010 NCAA Football Record: http://web1.ncaa.org/web_files/stats/football_records/DI/2010/2010FBS.pdf. You will see that on page 68 the origins of the College Football Researchers Association poll are described, and it is mentioned in the last sentence that the poll was restarted in 2009. You can also see from the chart immediately above the poll that we are currently one of the only seventeen active polls officially acknowledged by the NCAA. Furthermore, because of the predated national champions which the original CFRA elected, there are only five national polls that have elected more national champions than we have.

However, we are still looking to further expand the poll by adding other avid college football fans who would like to participate.  If you would like to become a CFRA voter, please e-mail me at bmatthews85@gmail.com and I will get you put on our mailing list and give you information on how to submit your weekly poll.  It would also be great if you could provide me with your name, location, and brief description of your college football interests and involvement so that I know a little bit about each of the voters.  We will probably allow for new voters to join throughout the first few weeks of the season, but there will be a deadline about when additional participants can be added.

Those of you who began reading my blog last fall will remember the CFRA poll that was published every week on this site and then was eventually moved to its own site: www.cfrapoll.com.   I’d like to announce that the poll will be returning for its second season and hopefully will gain even greater notoriety across sporting nation. 

The College Football Researchers Association was originally founded by the late Anthony Cusher of Reeder, North Dakota in 1982.  It was an organization modeled after the Professional Football Researchers Association (PFRA) consisting of college football fans and writers dedicated to researching and analyzing the history of the game.  The CFRA retrospectively elected national champions from the years of 1919-1981 based on a poll created by Harry Carson Frye and also voted on present-day national champions during the years of 1982-1992.  They published their results in a monthly bulletin produced by Robert Kirlin of Spokane, Washington until after the ’92 season when the association ceased operations and several successor organizations, operating under different names, were created.

Last September, under the coordination of myself and others and with the permission and involvement of past members, the College Football Researchers Association was reorganized, and a group of both new and original CFRA voters was assembled to recreate this influential poll.  Basically, the CFRA poll functions like any other weekly college football poll with each of its voters submitting a top 25 ballot after each Saturday’s games.  The polls are then posted each Monday morning on our organization’s website: www.cfrapoll.com.  This poll gained a lot popularity and participation throughout the 2009 season, as we even had a press release about our national championship selection published by the IFRA and other college football publications.

 Now, we are looking to further expand the poll by adding other avid college football fans who would like to participate.  If you would like to become a CFRA voter, please e-mail me at bmatthews85@gmail.com and I will get you put on our mailing list and give you information on how to submit your weekly poll.  It would also be great if you could provide me with your name, location, and brief description of your college football interests and involvement so that I know a little bit about each of the voters.  We will probably allow for new voters to join throughout the first few weeks of the season, but there will be a deadline about when additional participants can be added.

Now that I have posted my entire college football guide, I thought I should keep hyping up the start of the season by posting my list of the greatest college football upsets of all-time.  I will apologize in advance for showing a strong bias towards the past two decades, as those are the games I actually watched live. Feel free to comment about the list.

The 2010 college football bowl season should be particularly engaging because most bowls have changed their conference  tie-ins.  We also add two new bowls in the Pinstripe Bowl and Dallas Football Classic but consequently lose the much-maligned International Bowl.

As you may know, I annually make a more comprehensive and obviously more accurate set of bowl predictions during Thanksgiving weekend in November.  However, I see no harm in posting some potential matchups before the season starts, as I have had some success doing so years past.  Last year, I correctly predicted the postseason bowl location for 12 different teams and even picked the exact matchup in three of games (Texas Bowl, Liberty Bowl, Alamo Bowl).  In 2008, I made 8 correct preseason bowl picks, and in 2007, I got 10 right including two exact matchups (Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl). These results put me ahead of Phil Steele two of the past three years.  In this chart, the italicized teams are replacement picks for conference tie-ins that cannot be satisfied.  For additional comments and analysis about these picks, please refer to the team-by-team analysis from my previous entries.

When all the smoke is cleared, here’s how I see the final postseason rankings for the 2010 season. For full analysis of each team, see the conference predictions in the prior entries.  Here’s a  quick guide to deciphering the chart below.  The numbers to the left of all the teams my predicted rankings.  The number in the experts column is the average expert ranking for a particular team.  Furthermore, the column on the far right displays the difference between my picks and that of the experts.  Logically, my surprise and disappointment picks will produce the biggest variances. My surprise teams are bolded, and my disappointment picks are italicized.  

First of all, I’d like to announce that today marks the one year anniversary of “The Ramblings of the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist” blog.  I just want to thank the readers who have taken the time to read my material over the past year.  It has been very much appreciated.  Now, let’s move on to the bad news of the day and that is the release of this year’s disappointment picks.  Several publications, including Phil Steele, produce annual surprise picks for teams who they think will do better than expected.  However, I don’t know of any expert predictions that do the inverse by picking teams who they believe will disappoint.  I think the reason why is that they don’t want to stir up too much controversy by upsetting fan bases.  In fact, often times publications will go out of their way to find something nice to say about teams that they are predicting to be horrible.  It’s sort of a form of political correctness if you will, and I do not shy away from being politically incorrect.  Therefore, I will produce my 4th annual disappointment picks for you to enjoy.  So far, my best picks have been Washington in 2007, Michigan in 2008, and Arizona State last year.  Below you will see a listing of these disappointment teams followed by my predictions for each and an average ranking of “expert” publications such as Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, Rivals, and others.  The teams are ordered based on the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average ,while also taking into account the significance of the pick.  The numbers in parentheses in the third column represent the numerical difference between my pick and that of the experts, both nationally and within each team’s conference. 

Now that I have provided you with a comprehensive analysis of every Divison 1-A conference, I will now proceed to post a few additional portions of my preview guide.  The first of these posts will be a summary of my surprise picks.  As you probably noticed, I chose ten teams in all of 1-A who I believe will be better than the experts are predictions.  Below you will see a listing of each team followed by my predictions for each and an average ranking of “expert” publications such as Athlon, Phil Steele, Sporting News, Rivals, and others.  The teams are ordered based on the relative disparity between my picks and the experts’ average ,while also taking into account the significance of the pick.  The numbers in parentheses in the third column represent the numerical difference between my pick and that of the experts, both nationally and within each team’s conference.

First of all, let’s get one thing straight: The SEC is still the best football conference in America.  Some conferences may be as deep as them and others may be as dominant up top, but no conference combines these two characteristics in quite the same way that the SEC does.  For more information as to why the SEC is the greatest football conference in the planet please read an article I wrote on this matter last season: http://www.surveymagnet.com/2009/09/guest-blogger-opinion-from-brad-matthews-which-conference-plays-the-best-college-football/

With that being said, I have a somewhat surprising prediction to make about this conference. I believe the SEC will in fact only get one team into a BCS bowl in 2010.  My rationale is that all of conference’s teams except Alabama will drop at least two games due to both inexperience and conference parity.  However, when it comes to actually taking home the national title, I can’t bet against a conference that has won it for four straight years now.  Thus, I got to go with the Tide to once again take home the BCS crown.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

SEC East

1.   Florida (8)- The Gators will once again win the East, but it won’t come in the same dominant fashion that it has the past two seasons.  I could see losses coming against LSU, South Carolina, Georgia, and of course Alabama (potentially twice if they play each other in the conference title game).  It will be difficult for the Gators to adjust to the post-Tebow days, as they will have to drastically alter their offensive schemes to fit the game of new quarterback John Brantley.  The Gators also only return five starters on defense.  A rebuilding year in Gainesville has me calling for a couple of losses at some point during the season.  (Postseason Prediction: Capital One Bowl vs. Wisconsin)

2.   South Carolina (16)- The only thing holding the Gamecocks back this season is their schedule, as they return 14 important starters and add freshman superstar Marcus Lattimore at running back.  The offense should be more of what we expect from a Spurrier squad now that he finally has a capable and experienced QB in Stephen Garcia.  The defense will continue to improve under Ellis Johnson, and if it wasn’t for having to play Alabama and at Florida then I might call for the Gamecoks to be a surprise division title winner.  I do realize that I picked the Cocks to surprise last season and they finished a mediocre 7-6, but this year’s squad should be better and could get to ten Ws if they can get wins in all of the close games they choked away last season.  (Postseason Prediction: Outback Bowl vs. Penn State)       

3.  Georgia (18)- The downfall of the 2009 Georgia Bulldogs was their propensity for turnovers and penalties.  I think Richt will correct those problems this year, but I still expect four or five losses from this team, as they have to break-in a new quarterback and seven new starters on defense.  (Postseason Prediction: Chick-fil-a Bowl vs. Florida State; I refused to call the former Peach Bowl by its commercialized name for the longest time.  However, now that Chick-Fil-A has introduced its delicious spicy chicken sandwich, I’ve finally agreed to call this bowl by its new-age name.)

4.  Tennessee (46)- The Kiffin hire backfired just like I thought it would, and I’m not crazy about the Dooley hire which stemmed more from the coach’s name than his actual results.  The Vols only has 9 returning starters but expect Phil Simms’ son to step up and become a reliable QB.  When all is said and done, Tennessee will beat Kentucky for the 26^th consecutive season and they will also sneak into a decent bowl game. (Postseason Prediction: Liberty Bowl vs. Houston; for the first time ever I’m calling for the C-USA representative to be favored over the SEC team in this year’s Liberty Bowl)

5.  Kentucky (52)- I would like to see the Wildcats focus their entire season’s efforts on beating Tennessee, as such a victory would be much bigger than any bowl bid this squad could achieve, given the fact that Tennessee’s win streak now stands at a national record of 26 games.  One other thing that bothers me is how the Wildcats have been making a mockery of the college football bowl qualification system the past few years.  They annually play four cupcake nonconference opponents, so all they have to do is beat Vandy and one other SEC team to make a bowl game.  (Postseason Prediction: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Cincinnati; battle of two basketball powerhouses who never play each other in either sport despite being located only 90 miles apart.)    

6.  Vanderbilt (67)- I expected the Dores to definitely improve on their 0-8 conference mark from last year, but now with the poorly timed departure of Bobby Johnson, I’m wondering if this squad will face some resulting chemistry and continuity issues.  Warren Norman and Larry Smith should provide stability on offense, but Vandy traditionally wins through their defense and they only return four starters on that side of the ball.  Home games against Mississippi State and Ole Miss are the only real chances for the Commodores to get conference victories in my opinion.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

SEC West

1.   ALABAMA (1)- I hate to do this, but for the first time in several years, I’m actually going to agree with the general consensus and pick the Alabama Crimson Tide to repeat as national champions in 2010.  The good news for the Tide is that the entire national championship offense returns intact.  The bad news is that the defense, while talented, is inexperienced, and the schedule is much tougher than last year’s with the Tide having to play Florida, at Arkansas, and Penn State.  When the regular season finishes on December 4^th, I’m predicting that Ohio State, Boise State, and TCU will be the only three unbeatens in the country.  Then Alabama, Texas, Iowa, and Oklahoma will all finish with one loss.  In such a situation, some people believe that Boise would be able to earn the # 2 spot and get the right to play Ohio State in the title game.  Nope.  One-loss Bama will jump an undefeated Boise team and get to their second straight title game despite having a worse record.  The reason why is simple.  Call me a conspiracy theorist, but have you noticed that a non-BCS team has never been ranked # 1 or # 2 in the BCS Standings?  That’s right, there hasn’t been a single week in the history of the rankings where a team outside the Big 6 conferences was situated to play in the title game.  Because of this, I have concluded that there is some kind of hidden code in the mysterious BCS computer program which prevents a non-BCS team from rising to one of the top two spots.  This intentional glitch protects BCS conference supremacy and ensures that BCS-apologists will always be able to come up with more explanations for “what more a non-BCS team could have done”.  This is my theory, and I’m sticking to it.  There is no evidence to prove otherwise.  (Postseason Prediction: National Title Game vs. Ohio State)

2.   Arkansas (14)- I called for the Razorbacks to surprise in 2006 and they did just that by finishing the season with a stunning 10-3 record.  Now, I once again envision the Hogs getting to 9 or 10 wins, as they return 17 starters including Heisman candidate Ryan Mallett.  Petrino has had the time to fully install his potent passing attack, and he should have his squad ready to give the # 1 ranked Crimson Tide all they can handle in Fayetteville on September 25^th.   (Postseason Prediction: Cotton Bowl vs. Nebraska)

3.  LSU (23)- Yeah, there is some dissension in the Tiger program as Les Miles has gone from national champion hero to hot seat candidate in a matter of three seasons.  The Tigers won’t contend for any kind of titles this year, but Jordan Jefferson and Terrance Tolliver should prove to be a top-notch QB/WR combo that will help compensate for an inexperienced defense.  Another 9-4 season seems about right and that should be good enough to keep Tiger fans happy, at least for now.  One other thing to think about: remember the Miles to Michigan rumors a few years ago that Les had to debunk in a dramatic press conference?  Well, the stage might be set for that move to finally happen after this season.  (Postseason Prediction: Gator Bowl vs. Michigan State; do we really need another Big 10 vs. SEC New Year’s Day Bowl Game?)

4.  Auburn (26)- In the jump to conclusions media age we live in, everyone seemed to be talking about what a great hire Gene Chizik was after he coached just 5 games last season.  Then reality set in and this team dropped five out of its last seven regular season games and needed a miracle just to beat Northwestern in a bowl game.  The truth is that this was a horrible hire, and even though the Tigers return 16 starters, I think an overrated coaching staff featuring Chizik, Gus Malzahn, and Ted Roof will find a way to finish in the bottom half of this division.  (Postseason Prediction: Music City Bowl vs. North Carolina)

5.  Mississippi State (57)- The Bulldogs are a strange case in that they seem to be improving every year, yet just can’t get over the hump and gain bowl eligibility.  They should have gotten to six wins last year, but they choked away a sure victory against LSU.  With 14 returning starters, it makes sense that this team finally gets to a bowl in 2010.  However, they have a new quarterback and running back and a brutal schedule where they play 8 teams ranked ahead of them nationally.  As a result, I once again have the Bulldogs falling just short of a bowl game.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

6.  Ole Miss (59)- As I mentioned in reference to Oklahoma State, the Cowboys and the Rebels face the most inevitable drop-off of any two teams in the country.  Every significant player on both teams is gone, and now both face a real possibility of finishing in the conference cellar.  Most experts are calling for Ole Miss to outshine its in-state rivals this year due to a more favorable schedule, but I disagree.  Let’s not forget that last year’s Mississippi State squad blew out the Rebels by a score of 41-27.  If the most talented and experienced Mississippi team in years couldn’t beat MSU, then why should I believe this squad will.  In rivalry games, some teams just don’t play well against the other.  South Carolina’s play against Clemson is a good example.  Similarly, the Bulldogs just seem to have the Rebels number as of late.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

The Big 12 will have one last season to enjoy its 12-team super conference before Nebraska and Colorado secede to rival leagues.  Now one really knows what will happen to the Big 12 then, but at least they avoided extinction this summer by holding onto Texas.  As for the upcoming season, expect your usual Texas-Oklahoma battle in the South and a division title for Nebraska in the North.  The difference is that if the Huskers can find a way to generate some sort of offense, the north champ actually has a legitimate chance of beating their southern counterpart in the title game.  Overall, thie league may be a little down because of its lack of depth, but it still possesses two potential national title contenders in Oklahoma and Texas.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

Big 12 North

1.  Nebraska (9)- The Huskers are a dark horse national title contender this year, as the defense should be as dominant as ever.  However, after watching the Nebraska offense struggle on so many occasions last year, I just can’t take them seriously enough to rank this squad any higher than 9^th in the country.  (Postseason Prediction: Cotton Bowl vs. Arkansas)

2.  Missouri (37)- Blaine Gabbert and Derrick Washington are probably the most underrated QB/RB combo in the country, and with 13 other starters coming back from a solid 8-5 squad, don’t be surprised if the Tigers give the Huskers all they can handle in Lincoln on October 30^th.   (Postseason Prediction: Holiday Bowl vs. Oregon)

3.  Kansas State (49)- Many experts are dismissing K-State as a one-hit wonder under Bill Snyder and calling for them to have a losing season in 2010.  On the other hand, I feel like Carson Coffman will develop into a capable quarterback and Snyder will lead the Wildcats into a bowl game for the first time in several seasons. (Postseason Prediction: Texas Bowl vs. Michigan)

4.  Colorado (60)- For whatever reason, the Dan Hawkins experiment has faltered in Boulder. He’s won just enough big games to hold onto his job this long, but I feel like his tenure will end after a losing 2010 season.  The Buffaloes still find themselves facing an awkward QB controversy involving the coach’s son, and they also have to deal with a tough schedule featuring two very difficult non-conference games versus Cal and Georgia, as well as interdivisional matchup versus Oklahoma.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

5.  Iowa State (70)- Paul Rhoads’ Cyclones were one of the feel-good stories of the year after beating Nebraska en route to a bowl victory.  Unfortunately, I don’t see the success spilling over into this season, as a young, inexperienced defense will be their downfall. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

6.  Kansas (75)- For some reason, many people are picking the Jayhawks to make a bowl in Turner Gill’s first season in Lawrence.  Meanwhile, I think they only win two games and go winless in conference.  First of all, a new coach comes in with new schemes, and if you recall, it took Gill a few seasons to successfully install his system in Buffalo and get that program moving in the right direction.  And while I think the Gill hire was alright, keep in mind that he really only had one good season in Buffalo, as last season his Bulls majorly disappointed.  Also, the Jayhawks lost their last 7 games of 2009 under the helm superstar quarterback Todd Reesing.  Now that he’s gone people why are people expecting them to be better?  I just don’t see much success in Lawrence this season, as I feel like this team has a long way to go after firing Mangini.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

Big 12 South

1.  OKLAHOMA (4)- First of all, let me just go on the record and say that there is no way the Oklahoma Sooners will be playing for the national title like Phil Steele is predicting.  His reasoning is absurd when he mentions that this team has the same number of returning starters as OU’s 2001 national championship squad (11).  That’s like saying that because a certain team had the same number of offseason ACL injuries as they did when they last won the title, so they should win it again this year.  Eleven starters isn’t that many, and while I am predicting the Sooners to knock off Texas, mostly because I think Landry Jones is more talented and experienced than Garrett Gilbert, I definitely believe that the Sooners will drop a game or two somewhere down the road.   (Postseason Prediction: Fiesta Bowl vs. TCU; Big 12 Power vs. Non-BCS Power # 1)

2.  Texas (6)- The Longhorns lose all but 4 offensive starters, but like most national powerhouses, they will reload without too much difficulty.  The real adjustment will come at quarterback, as Gilbert will try to prove himself as a capable replacement for Colt McCoy.  It seems like it takes Mack Brown a couple of seasons to break his quarterbacks in (see Vincy Young and Colt McCoy), so I believe that Gilbert will struggle at times throughout the season.  However, the Big 12 is a little down this year and the Horns’ should only drop 1 or 2 games all season. (Postseason Prediction: Sugar Bowl vs. Boise State; ; Big 12 Power vs. Non-BCS Power # 2)

3.  Texas A & M (40)- The Aggies showed signs of promise at times last season, as they played great in games versus Texas and Texas Tech.  On the hand, they looked horrible in their bowl game versus Georgia and an earlier blowout loss to Oklahoma.  If Sherman can get his troops to consistently play to their ability level, then the Aggies have an outside chance at contending for the division crown.  Star quarterback Jerrod Johnson will anchor a potent offense, and even though, the defense struggled at times last year, the Aggies will be returning 10 starters on that side of the ball. (Postseason Prediction: Alamo Bowl vs. Washington)

4.  Texas Tech (45)- Much like Southern Cal, I really have no idea what this team is going to do this season based on their somewhat unusual circumstances.  The Red Raiders have 13 returning starters including their starting quarterback, running back, and three of their receivers.  The problem is that Tuberville will be bringing drastically difference scheme to a divided team, campus and fanbase, who largely believe that Mike Leach should still be the coach.  I think a lack of unity and cohesion will cost this team some games, but they simply have too much talent not to at least make a bowl game this season.  (Postseason Prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Northwestern)

5.  Baylor (54)- It’s now or never for Art Briels and the Bears.  They have over half of the starters returning on both offense and defense, including superstar QB Robert Griffin.  Also, the Big 12 South is unusually weak, and the Bears have three winnable conference games and an interdivisional schedule that doesn’t feature Nebraska or Missouri.  All the signs point to a 6-6 season and a bowl berth, and I think that’s exactly what you’ll see in Waco.  (Postseason Prediction: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Rutgers; Baylor finally makes a bowl game!)

6.  Oklahoma State (64)- Ole Miss and Oklahoma State will drop more than any two in the country, as both of their rosters were gutted following very successful seasons in 2009.  The Cowboys only have five total returning starters, none of which were star players last year.  Gundy has recruited decently well while at OSU, so there is some talent here.  However, there is simply not enough experience to win more than a few games this season. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

Now that the Trojans are out of national title contention for at least a couple of years, the Pac-10 becomes like the ACC in that it has great depth but lacks a team that will contend for the national title.  In fact, the two teams I have picked at the top of the conference are surprised picks ranked outside of my top 10.  You may then wonder how I can still rank the Pac-10 as the third best conference without the presence of a national title contender.  My answer would be that this year’s Pac-10 has 8 teams ranked in my top 41 in the nation.  That’s basically 1/5 of all teams that I believe will get at least 7 wins.  And because the Pac-10 has then comprehensive nine game conference schedule, every team in the league will have at least 7 opponents ranked in my preseason top 45.  No other conference can come close to saying that. 

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  OREGON STATE (11)- Is it just me or does it seem like the Rodgers’ brothers have been playing for Oregon State for about 10 years now?  Believe it or not the better of the two brothers, Jacquizz, is only a junior.  The Beavers return 13 other starters from a team that came within a possession of the Pac-10 crown last season.  They do have to break-in a new quarterback, but expect Ryan Katz (son of the great Howard Katz) to emerge as a reliable starter.  Mike Riley has done everything at OSU except take them to the Rose bowl, and it’s time about time that 46-year drought ends.  (Postseason Prediction: Rose Bowl vs. Iowa; Oregon State’s 46-year Rose Bowl drought finally ends.)

2.  Washington (17)- This will be one of those picks that defines my prognostication success for the season.  I am asking a lot of a team that hasn’t made a bowl in 10 seasons, but all the cards are in place for a surprising run at the Pac-10 crown.  They have a wealth of experience (18 returning starters), a superstar quarterback (Jake Locker), a dynamic, young coach (Steve Sarkisian), and a conference that is as wide open as ever. (thanks to USC).  (Postseason Prediction: Alamo Bowl vs. Texas A & M)

3.  Oregon (20)- This was the obvious conference championship pick before they were overcome with a series of offseason disasters including the expulsion of Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli and suspension of Running Back LaMichael James.  Concerns about leadership and character are now very evident, and even though the Ducks were able to overcome similar problems last season, I think the impending QB controversy will cost them a few games.  (Postseason Prediction: Holiday Bowl vs. Missouri)

4.  Southern Cal (24)- This is clearly the wildcard team in the entire country, as no one can really predict how the Trojans will handle their probation their postseason ban.  Will they use it as motivation like the undefeated 1993 Auburn Tigers, or will they simply pack it in like last year’s USC basketball team.  It troubles me that this squad looked lethargic at times last season when they actually had something to play for.  These Trojans may be a little better than year’s bunch, but the probation and its effects on the program’s morale may prove costly.  (Postseason Prediction: Ineligible- sorry guys!)

5.  Stanford (27)- I was dead-on with my Stanford surprise pick last year, as I called them to finish in the top half of the Pac-10 for the first time in several years.  Many alums didn’t even believe me, but they actually ended up exceeding my lofty expectations by almost winning the conference title.  Now, a lot of people are picking Stanford to continue to move forward this season, but I think the loss of Gerhart will actually knock this program back a step.  Andrew Luck is definitely a great QB but he’ll have a lot more pressure on him without Gerhart there to lead the offense.  (Postseason Prediction: Sun Bowl vs. Georgia Tech; another trip to El Paso for the Cardinal)

6.  Arizona (31)- There is a lot to like about this year’s Wildcats, such as their schedule which includes 5 Pac-10 home games and their dynamic returning skill players Nick Foles and Nic Grisby.  This team’s downfall, however, will be their defense which only returns 4 starters from a unit that wasn’t very good last year.  They also have a new defensive coordinator who will be introducing new schemes that this squad must adjust to quickly.  (Postseason Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Brigham Young)

7.  California (38)- The Bears need to get off to a good start as testers against Colorado and at Nevada come in weeks 2 and 3.  Losses in both of those and the Bears will have a difficult climb to get to an eighth straight bowl game.  Expect a breakout season from quarterback Kein Riley, but the departure of Javhid Best will hurt. (Postseason Prediction: Kraft Hunger Bowl vs. Nevada; good bowl game, horrible bowl name)

8.  UCLA (41)- You may ask how can I have a team ranked in the top 45 not in a bowl game.  It’s pretty easy when nine teams on their schedule are better than them.  Besides the seven teams I have ranked ahead of Bruins in the conference, UCLA also plays two non-conference games versus national title contenders Houston and Texas.  It should also be mentioned that the Bruins third non-conference game is in Manhattan against a solid Kansas State squad.  Not sure who made UCLA’s schedule, but they certainly didn’t take into account the fact that you must win 6 regular season games to qualify for a bowl. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

9.  Arizona State (62)- The start of the Dennis Erickson regime looked so promising, as the legendary coach had his team on the verge of a BCS bid in just his first season in 2007.  Then, the Devils were unfairly and inexcusably passed up by the BCS for a horrible Illinois team, and this squad has literally never been the same.  In fact, they’ve failed to qualify for a bowl, or more importantly beat archrival Arizona, the last two seasons.  Now, Michigan transfer Steve Threet comes in to try to salvage Erickson’s disappointing tenure.  I think Threet will be a nice addition, but the team only returns 9 total starters, and has to play 5 conference road games as well as a brutal non-conference game versus Wisconsin.  In this year’s Pac-10, I just don’t think a bowl bid is likely. (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)  

10.  Washington State (92)- Do I think Paul Wulff is the right man for the Washington State job?  Probably not.   The Cougars need a miracle worker, and Wulff seems to just be an average college football coach.  With that being said, this team will be better than the two squads Wazzou put out on the field in 2008 and 2009.  In other words, this group could actually beat most high school varsity teams in the country..  Kidding aside, I believe the Cougars are capable of winning a conference game, but unfortunately their two best chances at a victory, versus UCLA and Arizona State, are both road games.  Another one-win season seems likely, as Wazzou will once again put up a goose egg in conference play.  Wulff is probably gone after December 4th’s Apple Cup.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl)     

Yes, I know that now that picking the Big 10 as the fourth strongest conference is probably based on my anti-Big 10 bias, but I just can’t take a conference seriously that possesses an obscure uneven scheduling system that doesn’t result in a title game.  I know they go to 12 teams next year, but I haven’t heard anything about how or if the conference will be divided into divisions.  If the Big 10 continues to have a division-less league, then how about having a 2-game playoff featuring the league’s top 4 teams to end the season?  I know this is a longshot, but that would definitely bring some excitement to a league that produces very little of that kind of thing.  The Cornhuskers are certainly good addition to the Big 10 in terms of quality, but they don’t do much for the conference stylistically, as the Huskers play the same boring defensive-minded football that characterizes the rest of the league.  In regard to this particular season, the Big 10 will play out just as it always does.  A couple of good teams on top, a few decent ones in the middle, and a slew of bottom feeders in the conference basement.

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  OHIO STATE (2)- There is a logical rule in place that prevents teams for getting credit for multiple wins over Division 1-AA opponents.  Now, why can’t there be another logical rule that prevents teams for getting credit for having more than seven home wins.  The Buckeyes will play a ridiculous 8 true home games this season, setting the stage for another disastrous performance in the BCS Title Game.  (Postseason Prediction: BCS Championship Game vs. Alabama; this game certainly a familiar look to it, as another SEC vs. OSU beatdown appears imminent.)

2.  Iowa (7)- The Hawkeyes have a lot of momentum going into this season due to their huge Orange Bowl win last January.  Stanzi is back healthy at quarterback, their running back and receiver corps remain intact, and their staunch defense return 8 starters.  The Hawkeyes also get to play Ohio State at home.  The main obstacle will be how Iowa handles the immense pressure they face coming into this season.  Expectations are as high as ever in Iowa City, and unlike, last year the Hawkeyes aren’t going to be sneaking up on anybody.  Iowa will have another tremendous season, but I feel like all the lucky breaks and close wins they were afforded last year won’t be in the cards this time around. (Postseason Prediction: Rose Bowl vs. Oregon State)

3.  Wisconsin (10)- John Clay is the best running back in the league, and he could have a 2,000 yard season if he gets enough touches.  15 other starters return for the Badgers, who could better their 10-3 mark from last year.  Other than back-to-back games against Ohio State and Iowa, Wisconsin should be favored in every other game they play this season, which is just as much of a compliment for the team as a criticism of their cupcake schedule.  (Postseason Prediction: Capital One Bowl vs. Florida)

4.  Penn State (22)- This will be a pseudo rebuilding year for JoePa and the Lions, as they will have to break-in a new quarterback and six new starting defenders.  Royster should be able to carry the load on offense, but this team has possibly the toughest three road games in the country having to play at Ohio State, at Iowa, and at Alabama.  If they win any of those games, I’ll be stunned.  (Postseason Prediction: Outback Bowl vs. South Carolina)

5.  Northwestern (39)- I haven’t labeled the Wildcats a surprise team, but I have them ranked a little higher than most publications based on their impressive performance in the Outback Bowl.  Even though, they lost they played a solid Auburn team into overtime.  They return 13 starters from that squad and don’t have to play Ohio State in conference. (Postseason Prediction: Insight Bowl vs. Texas Tech; this will be a great chance for the Wildcats to get their first bowl win since the 1940s)

6.  Michigan State (44)- Just like Northwester, the Spartans also return 13 starters and don’t have to play OSU.  I’m only giving the Wildcats a slight nod for fifth place because they get the Spartans at home and are coming off a slightly better season than MSU. (Postseason Prediction: Gator Bowl vs. LSU)

7.  Michigan (48)- It has always taken Rich Rodriguez a year or two to fully install his option attacks at a particular program.  That is why Michigan gave Rich Rod another year to prove himself, despite the numerous off the field problems he has been associated with.  I do think that this team has the talent to get to a bowl this year, but a brutal schedule will make it close  They will probably need to beat either UConn or Notre Dame in their first two games to have a legitimate shot at postseason play. I think these guys really need to pick either Forcier or Robinson as the starter and stick to him.  The QB controversy at the end of last year was a mess.  (Postseason Prediction: Texas Bowl vs. Kansas State)

8.  Purdue (58)- The Boilermakers came close to making a bowl last year, and they’ll be in about the same situation this year.  But thanks to 3 cupcake non-conference games I’m calling for Purdue to get to 6-6 and sneak into the inaugural Dallas Football Classic, though I’m not really sure why Dallas needed a second bowl game.  The success of this team may come down to the play of heralded transfer Robert Marve who failed to live up to his potential at Miami.  (Postseason Prediction: Dallas Football Classic vs. South Florida)

9.  Minnesota (78)- The loss of superstar receiver Eric Decker is the obvious concern for this squad, but they also only return 2 starters on defense.  They have three very winnable non-conference games, but they only get to play one of the two Big 10 bottom feeders, so they’ll have a tough time getting to the magic 6-win mark.   (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

10.  Indiana (86)- Last year, the Hoosiers made the mistake of playing a non-conference game against a living, breathing football team when they got pounded at Virginia.  Now, Indiana plays 4 cupcake games out of conference, meaning that this abysmal team will get to a bowl if they can beat Illinois and one other conference foe.  And you wonder why I think the Big 10 is a joke.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

11.  Illinois (89)- You may see a pattern between Kansas, Illinois, and South Florida. Last year, I picked all them to surprise because they were all experienced squads led by superstar quarterbacks.  Well all three picks turned out pretty badly, as only USF qualified for a bowl game.  Now, each of these teams are having to replace their few quality players, which for Illinois is quarterback Juice Williams and receiver Arrelious Benn.  Because of this, I don’t see the Illini getting more than the three wins they had last year (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

Many feared that conference realignment might hurt the ACC as rumors swirled of possible defections by Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson.  In the end, the conference was unaffected by the changes and still looks to overcome its stigma of being a “basketball-only conference”.  The problem with the ACC has not necessarily been its depth, but the perennial lack of national championship contenders.  The ACC hasn’t had a team make a legitimate title run  since Miami in the early 2000s, which is by far the longest drought of all the conferences.  Unfortunately, that will again be this conference’s downfall in 2010.  Miami and Florida State will be much improved, but both teams are miles away from the dominant squads they had in the 80s and 90s.  The Coastal Division will actually be one of the deepest divisions in any conference, but expect for its top 4 teams to just beat each other senseless.  The ACC will definitely showcase some good football this season, but I’m afraid the title game, which is being played in Charlotte for the first-time ever, will once again be the most overlooked and least important of all of the championship week games. 

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

ACC Atlantic

1.  Florida State (19)- Many people are predicting that Christian Ponder makes a dark horse Heisman run this year.  However, based on some of last year’s dreadful performances (i.e. vs. Clemson), I just don’t see it happening.  In fact, E.J. Manuel could and probably should see a little time behind center to give the Noles another running threat in the backfield.  The Noles have underachieved for three straight years now, but I think they finally take back the division crown by being the most athletic and experienced squad in a division that saw several of its stars plundered by both the NFL and MLB drafts.  (Postseason Prediction: Chick-Fil-A Bowl vs. Georgia; I refused to call the former Peach Bowl by its commercialized name for the longest time.  However, now that Chick-Fil-A has introduced its delicious spicy chicken sandwich, I’ve finally agreed to call this bowl by its new age name.)

2.  Boston College (35)- If cancer survivor Mark Herzlich has a great season, it will definitely be the sentimental storyline of the year in all of sports.  I’ve been impressed that the Eagles have continued to make bowl games and contend for division titles despite major personnel changes the last past few seasons.  They’ve lost two head coaches in consecutive seasons and star quarterback Matt Ryan, yet they played in five consecutive bowl games.  This year’s Eagles squad actually has some familiar faces on it, as they return the head coach, running back, quarterback, and 12 other starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  This stability, as well as a fairly weak schedule, might give BC a chance to make an improbable run at a division title.  (Postseason Prediction: Independence Bowl vs. Brigham Young ; the battle of the Catholics and Mormons!)

3.  Clemson (43)- The losses of Jacoby Ford, C.J. Spiller, and possibly Kyle Parker will certainly take its toll on the Tigers this season.  However, the Tigers are still very talented on both lines and have a potential superstar in Tajh Boyd at quarterback.  Clemson will once again be an upper echelon ACC team, but I think the Tigers are a year or two away from winning the division again. (Postseason prediction: Meineke Car Care Bowl vs. Notre Dame; two of football’s most evil empires collide)

4.  NC State (51)- With Russell Wilson and six other starters coming back, the Pack should be able to put some points up this season.  Unfortunately, NC State’s downfall has been its defense that gave up 30+ points in 8 games last year.  The defense only returns 5 starters, which is not necessarily be a bad thing if their replacements are more talented.  The Pack have only qualified for one bowl game in the past 4 years, but they should be able to get to six wins this season thanks to a pretty favorable non-conference slate.  (Postseason Prediction: EagleBank Bowl vs. Marshall) 

5.  Wake Forest (65)- All the remnants of the 2006 Cinderella season are finally gone, as every player on that Orange Bowl squad has now graduated.  Gone too is the underdog swagger that enabled that team overachieve like they did.  Last year, the Deacs packed it in down the stretch and ended up falling short of a bowl for the first time in four years.  Now, there are major, major, major questions at quarterback with as many as three or four guys in contention for the starting spot as the season approaches.  They are loaded at running back and receiver but a new option attack on offense may be difficult to adjust to.  Don’t see Wake making a bowl this year, but I don’t expect a disastrous downfall to the conference basement either.  (Postseason Prediction: N Bowl Game)    

6.  Maryland (76)- The Terrapins football program is exhibit A of why the coach-in-waiting system is not  always a good idea.  Friedgen’s struggles the last few years have many calling for a complete overhaul of this program, despite the fact that offensive coordinator James Franklin has been already been named the successor.  After last year’s 2-10 season, the morale is low in College Park, and the Terps will continue to struggle this season, as inexperience at the quarterback and in the secondary will greatly hinder their success.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

ACC Coastal

1.  MIAMI-FL (13)- I’m not going as far as to say that “the U is back”, but this Canes team is the best they’ve had in several years.  If Jacory Harris can become a more consistent dual threat quarterback, then the Canes can win this division and setup an intriguing matchup against in-state rival FSU in the conference title game.  We’ll find out a lot about this team when they play at Ohio State in Week 2 of the season.  (Postseason Prediction: Orange Bowl vs. West Virginia)

2.  Virginia Tech (15)- With Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Williams, and Darren Evans returning, this team should have one of the most athletic backfields in the conference, if not the country.  Strangely enough, this teams’ problem could be its defense, which has always been its strength under Frank Beamer.  Only four starters return on that side of the ball, so I’m going to call for a runner-up finish in the Coastal.  Opener against Boise is huge and should be cause for concern because of VT’s poor play in its past three seasons openers. (Postseason Prediction: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Pittsburgh; this will be the best pre-New Year’s bowl game)

3.  Georgia Tech (30)- Any doubters of Paul Johnson’s success, such as myself, should be silenced now.  The Jackets took home the conference crown last year after I pegged them as one of my disappointment teams in the preseason.  Nesbitt returns at quarterback but the loss of Jonathan Dwyer has me calling for a few less wins this season.  They also have to play two of the other three division title contenders on the road.  (Postseason Prediction: Sun Bowl vs. Stanford; why the ACC agreed to send a representative to this game?  I can’t think of a worse location for a bowl besides maybe New York City.) 

4.  North Carolina (33)- The Tar Heels are a trendy conference title pick this season, as they bring back 19 starters including several top NFL prospects.  However, I still have questions about quarterback T.J. Yates and his abysmal TD/INT ratio from last year (14/15).  This seems to be a program that just hasn’t quite been able to get over the hump, and I think the Coastal is simply too talented for them to win the division this year. (Postseason Prediction: Music City Bowl vs. Auburn) 

5.  Duke (79)- Honestly, the biggest thing keeping the Blue Devils from making their first bowl in 16 years may be the schedule.  Last year, they screwed themselves over by scheduling a game against NC Central that didn’t count towards bowl eligibility because of their Division II statuts.  This year’s non-conference schedule includes the # 1 team in the country (Alabama), a top 5 Divison 1-AA team (Elon), and a road game against the tricky Midshipmen of Navy.  All three games could result in losses, which would make a 6-win season virtually impossible.  The Devils need to figure out that a schedule featuring 3 or 4 winnable non-conference games is the only way they’ll be able to get to a bowl game in the future.  This year’s squad will have to break-in a new quarterback, but they have experience most everywhere else.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)   

6.  Virginia (81)- Mike London should be able to use his local connections to bring this team back to prominence in the Coastal.  However, this year’s squad just isn’t talented enough to improve much on last year’s 3-9 mark.  New schemes, new quarterback, and a tough schedule will keep this team in the conference basement.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

I think we all saw just how weak the Big East can be when Cincinnati got absolutely demolished in the Sugar Bowl by Florida.  The top teams of this conference are just several steps behind the powerhouses in the other five major conferences.  However, the depth of the Big East is pretty solid with six teams capable of winning the league.   

The number to the left of each team name is their predicted conference ranking with the conference champion displayed in all caps.  The number in parentheses to the right of each team name is their predicted rank nationally.  Also, after my written analysis for each team, I have provided my prediction of where each team will end up spending their postseason.  Furthermore, I have underlined my ten surprise picks and italicized my ten disappointment picks.  Separate entries for my surprise and disappointment picks will be posted later on, which will compare my preseason predictions with the average of the (allegedly) expert predictions from Athlon, the Sporting News, and Phil Steele.   

1.  West Virginia (12)- The Mountaineers play best when they’re being overlooked (see 2007 Fiesta Bowl), and that is exactly what is happening this season in Morgantown.  The Pitt Panthers are the trendy pick to win the title, but the Mountaineers are the more experienced group, as they bring back 16 starters from last year’s squad.  The defense should be as good as ever, and Devine should provide enough spark on offense to take the pressure off your quarterback Geno Smith.  (Postseason Prediction: Orange Bowl vs. Miami-FL)

2.  Pittsburgh (21)- The Wannstache has done better than I thought he would at Pitt, but because he has failed to win any kind of championship at any level, as either an assistant or head coach, then I just can’t pick the guy to do it this year. (Postseason Prediction: Champs Sports Bowl vs. Virginia Tech; best early season bowl matchup)

3.  Connecticut (25)- Connecticut has had years where they caught all the breaks, such as in 2007 when they almost won the conference crown, and years where they couldn’t buy a break like last year where all five of their losses came by four points or less.  If the football gods are on the Huskies side this season, then they could win the conference crown as this is likely Edsall’s most talented team in his 12 years at the school. (Postseason Prediction: St. Petersburg Bowl vs. Central Florida)

4.  Rutgers (36)- QB/WR combo Savage and Sanu should lead this team to a solid bowl game and possibly beyond if they catch some breaks.  Unfortunately, they play four of the other conference title contenders on the road. (Postseason Prediction: Pinstripe Bowl vs. Baylor; Baylor finally makes a bowl game!)

5.  Cincinnati (43)- It’s tough to drop an undefeated conference champ to the bottom half of the conference, but that is what happens when you lose two superstar players, Gilyard and Pike, as well as your offensive mastermind of a head coach.  Collaros should still give this team a dual threat attack on offense, but this time they won’t be able to score enough points to compensate for a dreadful defense that became increasingly more exposed as the 2009 season progressed. (Postseason Prediction: Papajohns.com Bowl vs. Kentucky; battle of two basketball powerhouses who never play each other in either sport despite being located only 90 miles apart.)

6.  South Florida (55)- This disappointment pick could come back to haunt me, but I’m mad at the Bulls for making me look silly last year by finishing 4^th after I picked them to win the conference.  I could see B.J. Daniels end up being a one-hit athletic wonder much like Juice Williams or a dual threat superstar like Vince Young.  It may also take this team awhile to adjust to Skip Holtz’s new scheme. However, the Bulls, like the five teams in front of them, have the talent to win the conference crown. (Postseason Prediction: Dallas Football Classic vs. Purdue; Big 12 won’t be able to fill this spot)

7.  Louisville (68)- Charlie Steele has been one of the best assistants in the nation for over a decade now, and no one deserves a heading coaching job more than he does.  I didn’t like the Kragthorpe hire, and I was spot on with my criticism.  Steele, however, will be the right man for the job, but new schemes will keep this team near the bottom of the conference for now.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)

8.  Syracuse (83)- How long will Syracuse flounder around at the bottom of the Big East?  A school of this size with this many resources should be able to rebuild a program rather easily, but the Cuse look more and more look like a school primarily focused on the basketball program.  It’s too early to evaluate the Marrone tenure, but questions at about QB and RB should keep this team in the basement.  (Postseason Prediction: No Bowl Game)