Week 14 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Fresno State (+9.0) at Boise State- 7:45
Wisconsin (+5.5) vs. Ohio State- 8:00
Memphis (+7.0) at UCF- 12:00
North Texas (+11.5) at Florida Atlantic- 12:00
TCU (+7.0) vs. Oklahoma- 12:30
South Alabama (+10.0) at New Mexico State- 4:30
Akron (+21.5) vs. Toledo- 12:00
UL-Lafayette (+15.0) at Appalachian State- 2:30
Miami-FL (+9.0) vs. Clemson- 8:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Pittsburgh (+14.0) over Miami-FL (I actually called this upset three weeks ago!)

 

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Brad’s 23rd Annual College Football Bowl Projections

Date Bowl Teams Time Channel
16-Dec New Orleans UAB Arkansas State 1:00 ESPN
16-Dec Cure Western Kentucky Georgia State 2:30 CBSS
16-Dec Las Vegas Boise/Fresno winner UCLA 3:30 ABC
16-Dec New Mexico Louisiana Tech Colorado State 4:30 ESPN
16-Dec Camellia Ohio Troy 8:00 ESPN
19-Dec Boca Raton South Florida Florida Atlantic 7:00 ESPN
20-Dec Frisco SMU Oregon 8:00 ESPN
21-Dec Gasparilla Temple Florida International 8:00 ESPN
22-Dec Bahamas Marshall Northern Illinois 12:30 ESPN
22-Dec Famous Idaho Potato Central Michigan Wyoming 4:00 ESPN
23-Dec Birmingham Memphis Texas Tech 12:00 ESPN
23-Dec Armed Forces UTSA Army 3:30 ESPN
23-Dec Dollar General Akron Appalachian State 7:00 ESPN
24-Dec Hawaii Houston Boise/Fresno loser 8:30 ESPN
26-Dec Heart of Dallas Iowa State North Texas 1:30 ESPN
26-Dec Quick Lane Duke Toledo 5:15 ESPN
26-Dec Cactus Kansas State Arizona 9:00 ESPN
27-Dec Independence Wake Forest Southern Miss 1:30 ESPN
27-Dec Pinstripe Boston College Purdue 5:15 ESPN
27-Dec Foster Farms San Diego State Washington State 8:30 FOX
27-Dec Texas Texas Texas A & M 9:00 ESPN
28-Dec Military Navy Virginia 1:30 ESPN
28-Dec Camping World NC State Oklahoma State 5:15 ESPN
28-Dec Holiday Northwestern Stanford/USC loser 9:00 FOX
28-Dec Alamo TCU Washington 9:00 ESPN
29-Dec Belk Virginia Tech Missouri 1:00 ESPN
29-Dec Sun Louisville Arizona State 3:00 CBS
29-Dec Music City Iowa Kentucky 4:30 ESPN
29-Dec Arizona New Mexico State Utah State 5:30 CBSS
29-Dec Cotton Penn State Notre Dame 8:30 ESPN
30-Dec Taxslayer (Gator) Florida State Mississippi State 12:00 ESPN
30-Dec Liberty West Virginia Utah 12:30 ABC
30-Dec Fiesta Ohio State/Wisky loser Southern Cal/Stanford winner 4:00 ESPN
30-Dec Orange Miami-FL Alabama 8:00 ESPN
1-Jan Outback Michigan LSU 12:00 ESPN 2
1-Jan Peach- Semifinal UCF Georgia/Auburn loser 12:30 ESPN
1-Jan Citrus Michigan State South Carolina 1:00 ABC
1-Jan Rose Oklahoma Georgia/Auburn winner 5:00 ESPN
1-Jan Sugar Clemson Ohio State/Wisky winner 8:45 ESPN

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the ninth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw last year with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled based on their APR.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 3 teams on the list with 2 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 1 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 81 bowl eligible teams for 2017 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled.  This list is updated through all games played on November 25th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (2):

Florida State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90% (previous odds: N/A, N/A, N/A, 45%)

New Mexico State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 55.5%, 60%, 60%, 54%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (1):

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 29%, 47%, 45%, 62%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (79):  UCF, South Florida, Memphis, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Marshall, Notre Dame, Army, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Southern California, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Troy, Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 96%), Houston (previous odds: 99%), North Texas (previous odds: 97%), UAB (previous odds: 95%), Northwestern (previous odds: 91%), West Virginia (previous odds: 68%), Iowa (previous odds: 65%), FIU (previous odds: 88%), Virginia (previous odds: 49%), Wyoming (previous odds: 93%), Fresno State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 98.5%, 91%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 49.5%, 75%), Appalachian State (previous odds: 99.5%, 95%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 66%, 64%), Southern Miss (previous odds: 97.5%, 97%), Texas A & M (previous odds: 98%, 96%), Georgia State (previous odds: 64%, 78%), Louisville (previous odds: 73%, 73%), Navy (previous odds: 78%, 70%), Akron (previous odds: 94%, 94%, 85%), Western Kentucky (previous odds: 74%, 67%, 61%), Texas (previous odds: 69%, 66%, 68%), Utah State (previous odds: 45%, 62%, 62%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 99.9%, 99.9%, 90%), Kansas State (previous odds: 48%, 50.5%, 48%), Arizona State (previous odds: 61%, 71%, 70%), UTSA (previous odds: 60%, 52%, 47%), Boston College (previous odds: 76%, 76%, 72%), Missouri (previous odds: 41%, 53%, 57%), Oregon  (previous odds: 77%, 74%, 74%), Buffalo (previous odds: 15%, 15%, 33%, 40%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 54%, 40%, 38%, 37%), UCLA (previous odds: 56%, 51%, 56%, 57%), Purdue (previous odds: 30%, 35%, 34%, 53%), Duke (previous odds: 42%, 42%, 30%, 42%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 57%, 65%, 69%, 59%), Temple (previous odds: 28%, 41.5%, 52%, 51%), Louisiana Tech (previous odds: 62%, 55%, 54%, 55%), Utah (previous odds: 55%, 63%, 59%, 61%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (48):  Tulsa, North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor, Charlotte, Rice, UTEP, Brigham Young, Bowling Green, Nevada, San Jose State, Oregon State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss, Kent State (previous odds: 1%), Ball State (previous odds: 1.5%), UMass (previous odds: 0.6%), East Carolina (previous odds: 0.2%), Illinois (previous odds: 0.1%), Texas State (previous odds: 0.1%), Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 32%, 36%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 19%, 35.5%), UConn  (previous odds: 4%, 1%), Florida (previous odds: 50.5%, 38%), Hawaii (previous odds: 12%, 10%), New Mexico (previous odds: 6%, 0.5%), Miami-OH (previous odds: 35%, 33%, 51%), Arkansas  (previous odds: 33%, 33.5%, 29%), Rutgers (previous odds: 5%, 8%, 7%), South Alabama (previous odds: 36%, 18%, 46.5%), Syracuse  (previous odds: 52%, 49%, 36%), Nebraska (previous odds: 53%, 39%, 10%), Maryland (previous odds: 3%, 0.7%, 0.5%), Idaho (previous odds: 37%, 32%, 32%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 39%, 41%, 38%), Tennessee (previous odds: 47%, 47.5%, 35%), Air Force (previous odds: 63%, 48%, 27%),  Pittsburgh (previous odds: 34%, 34%, 19%), California (previous odds: 43%, 44%, 44%, 43%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 67%, 43%, 58%, 22%), Indiana (previous odds: 38%, 37%, 46%, 47%), Tulane (previous odds: 44%, 25%, 28%, 38%), Old Dominion (previous odds: 18%, 22%, 37%, 41%), Minnesota (previous odds: 40%, 34.5%, 43%, 24%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.3%), UNLV (previous odds: 51%, 59%, 42%, 52%), Colorado (previous odds: 46%, 39.5%, 39%, 39%)   

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 79

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 2 (81)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 48

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 1 (49)

Conference Championship Analysis- Week 13 Edition

For the ninth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing the conference championship races.  Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bold teams have already clinched their division or conference.  Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 25, 2017.

ACC AtlanticClemson

ACC CoastalMiami-FL

Big Ten EastOhio State

Big Ten WestWisconsin

Big 12Oklahoma/TCU

Pac-12 NorthStanford (Within a month, Stanford went from almost losing to the Pac-12’s worst team, Oregon State, to beating Notre Dame and winning the Pac-12 North.  What a turnaround!)  

Pac-12 SouthSouthern California    

SEC EastGeorgia

SEC WestAuburn (The Tigers upset over Bama is going to create quite the playoff drama.)

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AAC EastUCF (The Knights have becomes the first team in college football history to go from a winless regular season to an undefeated regular season in just two seasons.  They absolutely belong in the College Football Playoff!)

AAC West Memphis

C-USA EastFlorida Atlantic

C-USA WestNorth Texas

MAC EastAkron (The Zips have become surprise MAC East champs for the first time in the Terry Bowden era!)

MAC West Toledo

MWC MountainBoise State

MWC WestFresno State

Sun BeltArkansas State/Appalachian State ( There is currently a three-way tie for the conference lead between Troy, Appalachian State, and Arkansas State, all of whom all have only one conference loss.  Next weekend Troy visits Arkansas State and Appalachian State hosts UL-Lafayette.  I think Appalachian State and Arkansas State with those two games and share the conference title since the two never played each other during the season.  Sadly, this league does not have a conference championship game until next season.)

 

Week 13 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current consensus spreads according to statfox.com.

Tennessee (-1.5) vs. Vanderbilt- 4:00
Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. UConn- 12:00
Kentucky (+10.0) vs. Louisville- 12:00
Florida (+5.5) vs. Florida State- 12:00
Ole Miss (+14.5) at Miss. State- Thurs. 7:30
Minnesota (+17.5) vs. Wisconsin- 3:30
UL-Lafayette (-6.0) vs. Georgia Southern- 5:00
UNLV (+3.0) at Nevada- 3:00
Old Dominion (+12.0) at Middle Tennessee- 3:00
Navy (+4.5) at Houston- Fri 12:00

Last Week’s Record: 4-6, Overall Season Record: 55-65

Week 13 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on statfox.com:

UNLV (+3.0) at Nevada- 3:00
Hawaii (+3.0) vs. Brigham Young- 9:00
Navy (+4.5) at Houston- Fri 12:00
Florida (+5.5) vs. Florida State- 12:00
Fresno St (+7.0) vs. Boise State- 3:30
Kentucky (+10.0) vs. Louisville- 12:00
Michigan (+12.5) vs. Ohio State- 12:00
Pittsburgh (+14.0) vs. Miami-FL- Fri 12:00
South Carolina (+14.0) vs. Clemson- 7:30

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Tulane (+9.5) over Houston

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the ninth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw last year with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled based on their APR.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 21 teams on the list with 9 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 12 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 79 bowl eligible teams for 2017 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled.  This list is updated through all games played on November 18th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (9):

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 29%, 47%, 45%)

Utah- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 55%, 63%, 59%)

Middle Tennessee- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59% (previous odds: 57%, 65%, 69%)

UCLA- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% (previous odds: 56%, 51%, 56%)

Louisiana Tech- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 62%, 55%, 54%)

New Mexico State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Idaho, vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 55.5%, 60%, 60%)

Purdue- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 30%, 35%, 34%)

UNLV- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 51%, 59%, 42%)

Temple- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 28%, 41.5%, 52%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (12):

Indiana- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 38%, 37%, 46%)

Florida State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: N/A, N/A, N/A)

California- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 43%, 44%, 44%)

Duke- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 42%, 42%, 30%)

Old Dominion- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 18%, 22%, 37%)

Buffalo- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 15%, 15%, 33%)

Colorado- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% (previous odds: 46%, 39.5%, 39%)

Tulane- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38% (previous odds: 44%, 25%, 28%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 54%, 40%, 38%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24% (previous odds: 40%, 34.5%, 43%)

Georgia Tech- Record: 5-5 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 67%, 43%, 58%)

UL-Monroe- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State, at Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.3% (previous odds: 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.4%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (70):  UCF, South Florida, Memphis, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Marshall, Notre Dame, Army, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Southern California, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Troy, Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 96%), Houston (previous odds: 99%), North Texas (previous odds: 97%), UAB (previous odds: 95%), Northwestern (previous odds: 91%), West Virginia (previous odds: 68%), Iowa (previous odds: 65%), FIU (previous odds: 88%), Virginia (previous odds: 49%), Wyoming (previous odds: 93%), Fresno State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 98.5%, 91%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 49.5%, 75%), Appalachian State (previous odds: 99.5%, 95%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 66%, 64%), Southern Miss (previous odds: 97.5%, 97%), Texas A & M (previous odds: 98%, 96%), Georgia State (previous odds: 64%, 78%), Louisville (previous odds: 73%, 73%), Navy (previous odds: 78%, 70%), Akron (previous odds: 94%, 94%, 85%), Western Kentucky (previous odds: 74%, 67%, 61%), Texas (previous odds: 69%, 66%, 68%), Utah State (previous odds: 45%, 62%, 62%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 99.9%, 99.9%, 90%), Kansas State (previous odds: 48%, 50.5%, 48%), Arizona State (previous odds: 61%, 71%, 70%), UTSA (previous odds: 60%, 52%, 47%), Boston College (previous odds: 76%, 76%, 72%), Missouri (previous odds: 41%, 53%, 57%), Oregon  (previous odds: 77%, 74%, 74%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (39):  Tulsa, North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor, Charlotte, Rice, UTEP, Brigham Young, Bowling Green, Nevada, San Jose State, Oregon State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss, Kent State (previous odds: 1%), Ball State (previous odds: 1.5%), UMass (previous odds: 0.6%), East Carolina (previous odds: 0.2%), Illinois (previous odds: 0.1%), Texas State (previous odds: 0.1%), Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 32%, 36%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 19%, 35.5%), UConn  (previous odds: 4%, 1%), Florida (previous odds: 50.5%, 38%), Hawaii (previous odds: 12%, 10%), New Mexico (previous odds: 6%, 0.5%), Miami-OH (previous odds: 35%, 33%, 51%), Arkansas  (previous odds: 33%, 33.5%, 29%), Rutgers (previous odds: 5%, 8%, 7%), South Alabama (previous odds: 36%, 18%, 46.5%), Syracuse  (previous odds: 52%, 49%, 36%), Nebraska (previous odds: 53%, 39%, 10%), Maryland (previous odds: 3%, 0.7%, 0.5%), Idaho (previous odds: 37%, 32%, 32%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 39%, 41%, 38%), Tennessee (previous odds: 47%, 47.5%, 35%), Air Force (previous odds: 63%, 48%, 27%),  Pittsburgh (previous odds: 34%, 34%, 19%),

 

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 70

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 9 (79)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 39

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 12 (51)