Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots are not filled.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there is one teams on the list with 1 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 0 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 82 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting four teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 24th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (1):

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 64%, 54%, 49%, 55%)

——————————————————————————————

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

 

Already Bowl Eligible (81):  (1) Boston College, (2) Clemson, (3) Syracuse, (4) Virginia, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Houston, (7) South Florida, (8) UCF, (9) Iowa, (10) Michigan, (11) Penn State, (12) Ohio State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Texas, (15) West Virginia, (16) FIU, (17) Louisiana Tech, (18) North Texas, (19) UAB, (20) Army, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Buffalo, (23) Western Michigan, (24) Boise State, (25) Fresno State, (26) San Diego State, (27) Utah State, (28) Utah, (29) Washington, (30) Washington State, (31) Alabama, (32) Florida, (33) Georgia, (34) Kentucky, (35) LSU, (36) Georgia Southern, (37) Troy, (38) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), (39) Ohio (previous odds: 72%), (40) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), (41) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (42) Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), (43) Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), (44) NC State (previous odds: 99%), (45) Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), (46) Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), (47) Duke (previous odds: 66%), (48) Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), (49) Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), (50) Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), (51) Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), (52) Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), (53) Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), (54) Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), (55) Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), (56) Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), (57) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), (58) Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), (59) Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), (60) Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), (61) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), (62) Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), (63) Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), (64) California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%), (65) Toledo (previous odds: 78%, 91%, 85%), (66) South Carolina (previous odds: 46%, 90%, 89%), (67) Brigham Young (previous odds: 67%, 65%, 82%), (68) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 63%, 61%, 68%), (69) Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%, 74%, 60%), (70) Oklahoma State (previous odds: 68%, 55%, 53.5%), (71) Hawaii (previous odds: 76%, 75%, 75%), (72) Miami-OH (previous odds: 29%, 18%, 34%, 72%), (73) Southern Miss (previous odds: 10%, 35%, 34%, 77%), (74) Tulane (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%, 65%, 62%), (75) Wyoming (previous odds: 38%, 46%, 46%, 56%), (76) Purdue  (previous odds: 60%, 72%, 56%, 53%), (77) Vanderbilt (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%, 46%), (78) Wake Forest (previous odds: 44%, 39%, 55%, 44%), (79) Baylor (previous odds: 37%, 56%, 54%, 42%), (80) Minnesota (previous odds: 42%, 30%, 41%, 33%), (81) TCU (previous odds: 18%, 24%, 23%, 49%)    

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (48):  (1) Ole Miss,(2)  Liberty, (3) UConn, (4) Tulsa, (5) North Carolina, (6) Rutgers, (7) Old Dominion, (8) Rice, (9) UTEP, (10) Western Kentucky, (11) New Mexico State, (12) Bowling Green, (13) Central Michigan, (14) Kent State, (15) San Jose State, (16) Arkansas, (17) Ball State (previous odds: 4%), (18) Louisville (previous odds: 1%), (19) Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), (20) Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), (21) South Alabama (previous odds: 15%),(22) UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), (23) UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), (24) Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), (25) Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), (26) UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), (27) New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , (28) East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), (29) Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), (30) UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), (31) Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%), (32) Air Force (previous odds: 49%, 45%, 47%), (33) Charlotte (previous odds: 24%, 23%, 18%),  (34) Navy (previous odds: 3%), (35) Illinois  (previous odds: 13%, 22%, 12%), (36) (36) Akron (previous odds: 43%, 34%, 29%, 6%), (37) Coastal Carolina (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%, 48%, 45%), (38) Texas Tech (previous odds: 65%, 63%, 62%, 58%), (39) Tennessee (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%, 54%), (40) Arizona (previous odds: 45%, 53%, 53%, 52%), (41) SMU (previous odds: 25%, 47%, 52%, 51%), (42) Indiana (previous odds: 41%, 41%, 44%, 47%), (43) Florida State (previous odds: 33%, 31%, 21%, 34%), (44) Maryland (previous odd: 56%, 49%, 25%, 21%), (45) Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 47%, 57%, 79%, 68%), (46) Colorado (previous odds: 54%, 48%, 45%, 36%), (47) Kansas State (previous odds: 20%, 12%, 22%, 30%), (48) Southern California (previous odds: 81%, 82%, 65%, 32%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 81

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 1 (82)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 48

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 0 (48)

Advertisements

Week 13 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads from the Five Dimes online sportsbook.

Washington (+3.0) at Washington State- (Fri) 8:30
Kentucky (-17.5) at Louisville- 7:00
Ohio State (+4.0) vs. Michigan- 12:00
Wake Forest (+12.5) at Duke- 12:30
Louisiana Tech (-11.0) vs. Western Kentucky- 12:00
Georgia Southern (-11.5) at Georgia State- 2:00
Virginia Tech (+3.5) vs. Virginia- (Fri) 3:30
Rutgers (+27.0) at Michigan State- 4:00
West Virginia (+1.5) vs. Oklahoma- (Fri) 8:00
Colorado State (+14.5) at Air Force- (Th) 3:30

Last Week’s Record: 5-5, Overall Season Record: 60-60

Week 13 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Tennessee (+3.5) at Vanderbilt- 4:00
Washington (+3.5) at Washington State- (Fri) 8:30
Ohio State (+4.0) vs. Michigan- 12:00
Virginia Tech (+4.0) vs. Virginia- (Fri) 3:30
UCLA (+5.0) vs. Stanford- 3:00
Western Michigan (+6.0) vs. Northern Illinois- (Tues) 7:00
Syracuse (+7.0) at Boston College- 12:00
Baylor (+7.0) vs. Texas Tech- 12:00
Houston (+8.0) at Memphis- (Fri) 12:00
Nebraska (+8.5) at Iowa- (Fri) 12:00
Ole Miss (+10.5) vs. Mississippi State- (Th) 7:30
Wake Forest (+13.0) at Duke- 12:30

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Oklahoma State (+4.5) over West Virginia

Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots aren’t filled.  One other thing to consider for this season’s projections is that several teams had games cancelled due to adverse weather early in the season. Some of these teams have rescheduled other games already (see NC State, East Carolina), which are of course included in this analysis, but for the teams that haven’t (see South Carolina, Virginia Tech), this analysis only includes their odds of making a bowl based on their 11 currently scheduled games.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 24 teams on the list with 11 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 13 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 82 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting two teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 17th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (11):

Southern Miss- Record: 5-5 (only scheduled to play 11 games because of cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77% (previous odds: 10%, 35%, 34%)

Miami-OH- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72% (previous odds: 29%, 18%, 34%)

Florida Atlantic- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% (previous odds: 47%, 57%, 79%)

Tulane- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 23%, 55.5%, 65%)

Texas Tech- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule:vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 65%, 63%, 62%)

Wyoming- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 38%, 46%, 46%)

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 64%, 54%, 49%)

Tennessee- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%)

Purdue- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 60%, 72%, 56%)

Arizona- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 45%, 53%, 53%)

SMU- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulsa; ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 25%, 47%, 52%)

——————————————————————————————

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (13):

TCU- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs.Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 18%, 24%, 23%)

Indiana- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 41%, 41%, 44%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 36%, 36%, 33%)

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 55%, 52.5%, 48%)

Wake Forest- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 44%, 39%, 55%)

Baylor- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 37%, 56%, 54%)

Colorado- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 54%, 48%, 45%)

Florida State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 33%, 31%, 21%)

Minnesota- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 42%, 30%, 41%)

Southern California- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 81%, 82%, 65%)

Kansas State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% (previous odds: 20%, 12%, 22%)

Maryland- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odd: 56%, 49%, 25%)

Akron- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, at South Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% (previous odds: 43%, 34%, 29%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (71):  (1) Boston College, (2) Clemson, (3) Syracuse, (4) Virginia, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Houston, (7) South Florida, (8) UCF, (9) Iowa, (10) Michigan, (11) Penn State, (12) Ohio State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Texas, (15) West Virginia, (16) FIU, (17) Louisiana Tech, (18) North Texas, (19) UAB, (20) Army, (21) Notre Dame, (22) Buffalo, (23) Western Michigan, (24) Boise State, (25) Fresno State, (26) San Diego State, (27) Utah State, (28) Utah, (29) Washington, (30) Washington State, (31) Alabama, (32) Florida, (33) Georgia, (34) Kentucky, (35) LSU, (36) Georgia Southern, (37) Troy, (38) Northern Illinois (previous odds: 73%), (39) Ohio (previous odds: 72%), (40) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 98.5%), (41) Auburn (previous odds: 92%), (42) Wisconsin (previous odds: 99.5%), (43) Michigan State (previous odds: 98%), (44) NC State (previous odds: 99%), (45) Appalachian State (previous odds: 94.5%), (46) Mississippi State (previous odds: 94%), (47) Duke (previous odds: 66%), (48) Oregon (previous odds: 95.5%), (49) Memphis (previous odds: 75%, 80%), (50) Missouri (previous odds: 70%, 85%), (51) Texas A & M (previous odds: 93%, 92%), (52) Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 59%, 70%), (53) Arizona State (previous odds: 52%, 64%), (54) Marshall (previous odds: 97.5%, 83%), (55) Iowa State (previous odds: 96%, 98%), (56) Northwestern (previous odds: 97%, 94%), (57) UL-Monroe (previous odds: 58%, 79%), (58) Pittsburgh (previous odds: 35%, 51%), (59) Arkansas State (previous odds: 80%, 88%), (60) Temple (previous odds: 95%, 93%), (61) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 40%, 52%), (62) Stanford (previous odds: 96.5%, 95%), (63) Nevada  (previous odds: 84%, 84%), (64) California (previous odds: 57%, 56.5%), (65) Toledo (previous odds: 78%, 91%, 85%), (66) South Carolina (previous odds: 46%, 90%, 89%), (67) Brigham Young (previous odds: 67%, 65%, 82%), (68) UL-Lafayette (previous odds: 63%, 61%, 68%), (69) Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%, 74%, 60%), (70) Oklahoma State (previous odds: 68%, 55%, 53.5%), (71) Hawaii (previous odds: 76%, 75%, 75%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (35):  (1) Ole Miss,(2)  Liberty, (3) UConn, (4) Tulsa, (5) North Carolina, (6) Rutgers, (7) Old Dominion, (8) Rice, (9) UTEP, (10) Western Kentucky, (11) New Mexico State, (12) Bowling Green, (13) Central Michigan, (14) Kent State, (15) San Jose State, (16) Arkansas, (17) Ball State (previous odds: 4%), (18) Louisville (previous odds: 1%), (19) Nebraska (previous odds: 2%), (20) Georgia State (previous odds: 9%), (21) South Alabama (previous odds: 15%),(22) UCLA (previous odds: 0.3%), (23) UNLV (previous odds: 3.5%), (24) Oregon State (previous odds: 0.1%), (25) Kansas (previous odds: 7%, 1.5%), (26) UMass (previous odds: 0.5%, 1%), (27) New Mexico (previous odds: 11%, 4%) , (28) East Carolina (previous odds: 5%, 3%), (29) Texas State (previous odds: 0.7%, 2%), (30) UTSA (previous odds: 8%, 5%), (31) Colorado State (previous odds: 6%, 6%), (32) Air Force (previous odds: 49%, 45%, 47%), (33) Charlotte (previous odds: 24%, 23%, 18%),  (34) Navy (previous odds: 3%), (35) Illinois  (previous odds: 13%, 22%, 12%)

 

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 71

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 11 (82)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 35

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 13 (48)

Conference Championship Analysis- Week 12 Edition

For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly columns late in the season which analyze all of  the FBS conference championship races. Like my bowl bubble watch, there is not really a column like this on any other mainstream college football site.  Bolded teams have already clinched their division or conference. Italicized teams are my predicted champions of their respective conferences/divisions at this point in time.  This list is updated through all games played on November 17, 2018.

ACC AtlanticClemson (Not surprisingly, the Tigers have clinched the ACC Atlantic for a fourth consecutive season.)

ACC Coastal Pittsburgh (The Panthers pull off one of the greatest in-season turnarounds you’ll ever see to somehow win the ACC Coastal.  They started conference play by losing to the worst team in their division and then proceeded to go undefeated in ACC play.)

Big Ten EastOhio State (As a result of their thrilling win over Maryland, the Bucks will play arch rival Michigan next Saturday for the Big Ten East Championship.)

Big Ten WestNorthwestern (The Cinderella Cats are in the Big Ten Title Game!  Now, they have a chance to spoil either Ohio State or MIchigan’s college football playoff hopes.)

Big 12West Virginia/Texas (As long as the Horns beat Kansas on Friday, they will get to play in the Big 12 title game against the winner of West Virginia and Oklahoma.  I’m predicting WVU wins that game at home thereby setting up an epic rematch of West Virginia and Texas.)

Pac-12 NorthWashington (The Apple Cup will decide the Pac-12 North next Friday night, and because the Huskies have owned Wazzu in recent years, I am picking them to win that game to clinch a third straight Pac-12 North crown.)

Pac-12 SouthUtah (The Utes are headed to the Pac-12 title game meaning that this division becomes the first in college football to have all of its members play in a conference championship game.)

SEC EastGeorgia     

SEC WestAlabama (The SEC Championship Game will be exactly what everyone expected and what everyone wanted to see after last year’s national title classic.  Alabama and Georgia will play each other in postseason play again in Atlanta. This one should end up being a CFP play-in game.)

————————————————————

AAC EastUCF (Please tell me how this team isn’t in consideration for the CFP playoff?  They are by far the best team in the country.)

AAC WestHouston (The Cougars tried to give up this division by losing consecutive games to SMU and Temple earlier this month.  However, after dismantling Tulane on Thursday, they got a huge break when Memphis beat SMU on Friday night. Now, Houston once again controls its own destiny and will clinch the AAC West if they beat Memphis on Friday.  A loss in that game could setup a wild four-way tie at the top between Houston, Memphis, SMU, and Tulane in which Memphis would win.)

C-USA EastFlorida International (As long as FIU beats Marshall at home next Saturday, they will win the division crown.  If they falter, then Middle Tennessee will cinch the crown regardless of their result against UAB. )  

C-USA WestUAB

MAC EastBuffalo (The Bulls made this division title race a lot more interesting by getting blown out in Athens, Ohio on Wednesday night.  Nevertheless, they still just need to beat the lowly Falcons of Bowling Green on the Friday after Thanksgiving to clinch the MAC East crown.  If they somehow stumble, Miami of Ohio and Ohio are still in contention. Miami would win the division if all three teams finished tied at the top.)

MAC WestNorthern Illinois (The Huskies’ clinched the division as a result of Ball State’s shocking upset win over Western Michigan.  The only thing more shocking than the result of that Ball State game was the crowd size. I counted 37 people on the television side of the field when they panned out for a wide view of Sheumann Stadium in the third quarter.)

MWC MountainBoise State (The Broncos battle with Utah State next Saturday will be a de facto division title game.)

MWC West Fresno State (The Bulldogs knocked off the Aztecs on Saturday to clinch the division title for the second consecutive season.)

Sun Belt EastAppalachian State (The Mountaineers beat Georgia State this weekend to setup the Sun Belt game of the century between league powers Troy and Appalachian State.  The winner becomes the division champ and I’m predicting App to win that one at home.)

Sun Belt WestArkansas State (The Red Wolves need to beat Texas State next Saturday and then simultaneously have UL-Monroe beat arch rival UL-Lafayette in order to clinch the division.  I am going to predict both of those things to happen to send Arkansas State to the first-ever Sun Belt Championship game.)

 

Week 12 College Football Picks

These are in order from my most confident pick to least confident.  Lines are based on the current spreads from the Five Dimes online sportsbook.

NC State (-16.5) at Louisville- 12:20
Oregon (-3.5) vs. Arizona State- 10:30
Texas (-3.0) vs. Iowa State- 8:00
UCF (-7.5) vs. Cincinnati- 8:00
Southern Cal (-3.5) at UCLA- 3:30
Boston College (-1.5) at Florida State- 3:30
Oregon State (+33.5) at Washington- 4:30
Tennessee (+5.5) vs. Missouri- 3:30
Baylor (-2.0) vs. TCU- 12:00
MIddle Tennesse (+16.0) at Kentucky- 12:00

Last Week’s Record: 7-3, Overall Season Record: 55-55

Week 12 College Football Upsets to Watch Out For

These are in order from least shocking to most shocking according to the current consensus lines on vegasinsider.com:

Florida Atlantic (+3.5) at North Texas- (Th) 9:30
Wisconsin (+4.5) at Purdue- 3:30
Oklahoma State (+4.5) vs. West Virginia- 3:30
Tulsa (+5.5) at Navy- 3:30
Tennessee (+6.0) vs. Missouri- 3:30
Colorado (+7.0) vs. Utah- 1:30
SMU (+9.0) vs. Memphis- (Fri) 9:00
Arizona (+9.5) vs. Washington State- 10:30
Syracuse (+10.0) vs. Notre Dame- 2:30
Maryland (+14.5) vs. Ohio State- 12:00

Last week’s Upset Pick of the Week: Northwestern (+10.0) over Iowa