Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 11 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the fifth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 38 teams on the list with 17 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 21 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 75 bowl eligible teams for 2013 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 70 bowl slots to be filled.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (17):

Rutgers– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincy, at UCF, at UConn, vs. USF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95%

Vanderbilt– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky, at Tennessee, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90%

Maryland– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at VT, vs. BC, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 86%

Boston College– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. NC State, at MD, at Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85%

Navy– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, at San Jose State, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82%

Kansas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. TCU, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%

San Diego State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii, vs. Boise State, at UNLV; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77%

Arkansas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas State, vs. Georgia State, at Western KY; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75%

San Jose State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Nevada, vs. Navy, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%

Syracuse– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at FSU, vs. Pitt, vs. BC; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69%

Pittsburgh– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UNC, at Syracuse, vs. Miami (FL); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

UTSA– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%

West Virginia– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

UNLV– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58%

Troy– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Ole Miss, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

UL-Monroe– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

Colorado State– Record: 5-5 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico, at Utah State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (21):

North Carolina– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Pitt, vs. Old Dominion, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Florida Atlantic– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, vs. New Mexico State, vs. FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Central Michigan– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, vs. UMass, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Tennessee– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Vandy, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Utah– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, at Washington State, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Northwestern– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan, vs. Michigan State, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Mississippi State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

South Alabama– Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Navy, vs. UL-Monroe, at Georgia State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

Florida– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Carolina, vs. Georgia Southern, vs. FSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%

Louisiana Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Rice, vs. Tulsa, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31%

Wake Forest– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Duke, at Vandy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23%

NC State– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at BC, vs. East Carolina, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22%

Washington State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, vs. Utah, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21%

Wyoming– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. Hawaii, at Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

TCU– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16%

SMU– Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UConn, at USF, at Houston, vs. UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Indiana– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Memphis– Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at USF, at Louisville, vs. Temple, at UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Illinois– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Purdue, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

South Florida– Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, vs. SMU, at UCF, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

New Mexico– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado State, at Fresno State, at Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Already Bowl Eligible (58):  UCF, Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami (FL), Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, East Carolina, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, Tulane, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Fresno State, Utah State, Boise State, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Southern California, Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A & M, LSU, Ole Miss, UL-Lafayette, Texas State, Western Kentucky

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (29):  Penn State*, UConn, Temple, Virginia, Kansas, Iowa State, Purdue, UAB, FIU, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP, Army, Idaho, New Mexico State, Akron, UMass, Kent State, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Nevada, Hawaii, Air Force, California, Colorado, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia State

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 58

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 17 (75)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 29

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 21 (50)

 

 

 

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