Bowl Bubble Watch

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the sixth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 51 teams on the list with 25 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 21 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 76 bowl eligible teams for 2014 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 76 bowl slots to be filled.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (25):

UCF– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, vs. SMU, at USF, at ECU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Florida– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. SC, vs. EKU, at Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Brigham Young– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UNLV, vs. Savannah State, at Cal; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Houston– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at SMU, at Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98%

Cincinnati– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. ECU, at UConn, at Temple, vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95%

UTEP- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, at Rice, vs. Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84%

NC State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wake, at UNC; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%

UAB– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at Southern Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79%

Middle Tennessee– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at FIU, vs. FAU, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78%

Washington– Record: 6-4 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, vs. Oregon State, at Wazzou; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77%

Stanford– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Cal, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75%

Ohio- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. NIU, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74%

Texas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Arkansas State, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%

Penn State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, at Illinois, vs. Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71%

San Diego State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. Air Force, vs. San Jose State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%

Rutgers– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Indiana, at Michigan State, at Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66%

Tennessee– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri, at Vandy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

South Alabama- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas State, at SC, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

Virginia Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Duke, at Wake, vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%

Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Maryland, at Ohio State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Navy– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Western Kentucky- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Army, vs. UTSA, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

California- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Cal, vs. Stanford, vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

Oklahoma State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas, at Baylor, at Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

Texas- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at OK State, vs. TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (26):

South Carolina– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. South Alabama, at Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Akron– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Umass, at Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Buffalo– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, at Umass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Pittsburgh– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UNC, vs. Syracuse, at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Temple– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Penn State, vs. Cincy, at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Kentucky– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

North Carolina– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pitt, at Duke, vs. NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Arkansas– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, at Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Illinois– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, vs. Penn State, at NW; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%

Fresno State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Nevada, vs. Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

Wyoming– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Boise, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%

Old Dominion– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. LA Tech, at FAU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22%

Virginia– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, at VT; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

Ball State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UMass, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

Army- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western KY, vs. Fordham, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16%

Oregon State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State, at Washington, vs. Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

North Texas- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UTEP, vs. FIU, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14%

UL-Monroe– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at New Mexico State, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9%

Northwestern– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, at Purdue, vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

San Jose State– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Hawaii, at Utah State, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

New Mexico– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Utah State, at Colorado State, vs. Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

South Florida– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at SMU, at Memphis, vs. UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Tulane– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at ECU, vs. Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Texas Tech– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Indiana– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, at Ohio State, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Kansas– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. TCU, at Oklahoma, at K-State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Already Bowl Eligible (51):  Memphis, East Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Louisville, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Notre Dame, Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State, Utah State, Air Force, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, Southern California, Arizona, Utah, Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas A & M, LSU, UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (26):  Georgia Southern*, Appalachian State* Tulsa, SMU, UConn, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Iowa State, Purdue, FIU, FAU, UTSA, Southern Miss, Kent State, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado, Washington State, Vandy, Troy, Idaho, New Mexico State, Georgia State

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 51

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 25 (76)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 26

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 26 (52)

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