Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the sixth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 18 teams on the list with 8 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 10 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 79 bowl eligible teams for 2014 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 76 bowl slots to be filled.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (8):

Navy– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80% (previous odds: 56%, 80%)

Fresno State– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71% (previous odds: 29%, 29%)

Tennessee– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Vandy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 65%, 81%)

UAB– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69% (previous odds: 79%, 79%)

Northwestern– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 7%, 42%)

Ohio- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 74%, 74%)

Akron– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 48%, 48%)

Virginia Tech– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 61%, 82%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (10):

Old Dominion– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at FAU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 22%, 22%)

California- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 53%, 53%)

Virginia– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at VT; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 20%, 20%)

Temple– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincy, at Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 45%, 40%)

Illinois– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at NW; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 30%, 23%)

Pittsburgh– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 46%, 32%)

Kentucky– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 43%, 33%)

Michigan- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19% (previous odds: 60%, 60%)

Oregon State– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% (previous odds: 15%, 24%)

Oklahoma State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 17% (previous odds: 52%, 21 %)

Already Bowl Eligible (71):  Memphis, East Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Louisville, Boston College, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Michigan State, Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Marshall, Louisiana Tech, Rice, Notre Dame, Bowling Green, Toledo, Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, Central Michigan, Nevada, Colorado State, Boise State, Utah State, Air Force, Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA, Southern California, Arizona, Utah, Missouri, Georgia, Mississippi State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas A & M, LSU, UL-Lafayette, Arkansas State, Cincinnati (previous odds: 95%), UCF (previous odds: 99%), Penn State (previous odds: 71%), NC State (previous odds: 80%), Rutgers (previous odds: 66%), Brigham Young (previous odds: 99%), South Alabama (previous odds: 64%), Texas (previous odds: 51%), UTEP (previous odds: 84%), North Carolina (previous odds: 42%, 63%), Texas State (previous odds: 73%, 66%), San Diego State (previous odds: 67%, 64%), Houston (previous odds: 98%, 98%), Florida (previous odds: 99%, 97%), South Carolina (previous odds: 49%, 90%), Western Kentucky (previous odds: 54%, 68%), Washington (previous odds: 77%, 71%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 78%, 62%), Arkansas (previous odds: 41%, 55%), Stanford (previous odds: 75%, 54%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (39):  Georgia Southern*, Appalachian State* Tulsa, SMU, UConn, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Iowa State, Purdue, FIU, FAU, UTSA, Southern Miss, Kent State, UMass, Miami-OH, Eastern Michigan, Hawaii, UNLV, Colorado, Washington State, Vandy, Troy, Idaho, New Mexico State, Georgia State, Ball State (previous odds: 18%), Army (previous odds: 16%), Kansas (previous odds: 1%), Tulane (previous odds: 4%), New Mexico (previous odds: 6%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 3%), Indiana (previous odds: 2%), San Jose State (previous odds: 6%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 9%), North Texas (previous odds: 14%), Buffalo (previous odds: 47%, 47%), Wyoming (previous odds: 25%, 25%), South Florida (previous odds: 5%, 7%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 71

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 8 (79)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 39

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 10 (49)

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