Bowl Bubble Watch- Inaugural 2017 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the ninth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw last year with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled based on their APR.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 76 teams on the list with 38 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 38 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 77 bowl eligible teams for 2017 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled.  This list is updated through all games played on October 28th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (38):

Arkansas State- Record: 5-2; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Texas State, at UL-Monroe, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99.9%

Appalachian State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Monroe, vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99.5%

Houston- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. East Carolina, at Tulane, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Texas A & M- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Central Michigan, vs. Kent State, at Northern Illinois, at Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98.5%

Western Michigan- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, vs. New Mexico, at Ole Miss, at LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98%

Southern Miss- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, at Rice, vs. Charlotte, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97.5%

North Texas- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana Tech, vs. UTEP, vs. Army, at Rice; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97%

Florida Atlantic- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at Louisiana Tech, vs. FIU, at Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96%

UAB- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Rice, at UTSA, at Florida, vs. UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95%

Akron- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, vs. Ohio, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94%

Wyoming- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado State, at Air Force, vs. Fresno State, at San Jose State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 93%

Fresno State Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. BYU, at Hawaii, at Wyoming, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Northwestern- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Nebraska, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91%

FIU- Record: 5-2; Remaining Schedule: vs. UTSA, vs. Old Dominion, at Florida Alantic, vs. Western Kentucky, vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 88%

Navy- Record: 5-2; Remaining Schedule: at Temple, vs. SMU, at Notre Dame, at Houston, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78%

Oregon- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, vs. Arizona, vs. Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77%

Boston College- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. NC State, vs. UConn, at Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76%

Western Kentucky- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Vanderbilt, at Marshall, vs. Middle Tennessee, at FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74%

Louisville- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Syracuse, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%

Texas- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at TCU, vs. Kansas, at West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69%

West Virginia- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State, vs. Texas, at Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68%

Georgia Tech- Record: 4-3; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. Virginia Tech, at Duke, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%

Wake Forest- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, at Syracuse, vs. NC State, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66%

Iowa- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Wisconsin, vs. Purdue, at Nebraska; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

Georgia State- Record: 4-3; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Southern, at Texas State, vs. Appalachian State, vs. Idaho; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

Air Force- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Army, vs. Wyoming, at Boise State, vs. Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63%

Louisiana Tech- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, vs. Florida Atlantic, at UTEP, vs. UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62%

Arizona State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado, at UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%

UTSA- Record: 5-2; Remaining Schedule: at FIU, vs. UAB, vs. Marshall, at Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Middle Tennessee- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UTEP, at Charlotte, at Western Kentucky, vs. Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57%

UCLA- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Utah, vs. Arizona State, at Southern California, vs. California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

New Mexico State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Texas State, at UL-Lafayette, vs. Idaho, vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55.5%

Utah- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UCLA, vs. Washington State, at Washington, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Texas Tech- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, vs. Baylor, vs. TCU, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

Nebraska- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, at Minnesota, at Penn State, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

Syracuse- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Florida State, vs. Wake Forest, at Louisville, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

UNLV- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Hawaii, vs. BYU, at New Mexico, at Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

Florida- Record: 3-4; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, at South Carolina, vs. UAB, vs. Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5%

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (0):

Central Michigan- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49.5%

Virginia- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Tech, at Louisville, at Miami-FL, vs. Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Kansas State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Texas Tech, vs. West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, vs. Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Tennessee- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, at Missouri, vs. LSU, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Colorado- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona State, vs. Southern California, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Utah State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at New Mexico, vs. Hawaii, at Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Tulane- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, at East Carolina, vs. Houston, at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

California- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon State, at Stanford, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

Duke- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Army, vs. Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Missouri- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida, vs. Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Minnesota- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan, vs. Nebraska, at Northwestern, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

Vanderbilt- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Western Kentucky, vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

Indiana- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Illinois, vs. Rutgers, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Idaho- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Troy, vs. Coastal Carolina, at New Mexico State, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

South Alabama- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, vs. Arkansas State, at Georgia Southern, at New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36%

Miami-OH- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, vs. Akron, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Pittsburgh- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, vs. Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%

Arkansas- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Coastal Carolina, at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%

Eastern Michigan- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State, at Central Michigan, vs. Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%

Purdue- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Illinois, at Northwestern, at Iowa, vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%

UL-Lafayette- Record: 3-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, at Ole Miss, vs. New Mexico State, vs. Georgia Southern, at Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

Temple- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Navy, at Cincinnati, vs. UCF, at Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28%

Cincinnati- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, vs. Temple, at East Carolina, vs. UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19%

Old Dominion- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte, at FIU, vs. Rice, at Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

Buffalo- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Bowling Green, at Ball State, vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Hawaii- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at UNLV, vs. Fresno State, at Utah State, vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%

New Mexico- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah State, at Texas A & M, vs. UNLV, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

Rutgers- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Maryland, at Penn State, at Indiana, vs. Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

UConn- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. USF, at UCF, vs. Boston College, at Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Maryland- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Michigan, at Michigan State, vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Florida State- Record: 2-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Syracuse, at Clemson, vs. Delaware State, at Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Ball State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Eastern Michigan, at Northern Illinois, vs. Buffalo, vs. Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1.5%

Kent State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Bowling Green, at Western Michigan, vs. Central Michigan, at Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

UMass- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Mississippi State, vs. Maine, at BYU, at FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.6%

UL-Monroe- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Appalachian State, at Auburn, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.3%

East Carolina- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, vs. Tulane, vs. Cincinnati, at Memphis; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.2%

Illinois- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue, vs. Indiana, at Ohio State, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1%

Texas State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, vs. Georgia State, at Arkansas State, at Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1%

Already Bowl Eligible (39):  UCF, South Florida, Memphis, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Marshall, Notre Dame, Army, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Southern California, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Troy

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (15):  Tulsa, North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor, Charlotte, Rice, UTEP, Brigham Young, Bowling Green, Nevada, San Jose State, Oregon State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 39

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 38 (77)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 15

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 38 (53)

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