Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 10 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the ninth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw last year with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled based on their APR.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 59 teams on the list with 26 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 33 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 76 bowl eligible teams for 2017 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled.  This list is updated through all games played on November 4th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (26):

Arkansas State- Record: 5-2; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Texas State, at UL-Monroe, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99.9% (previous odds: 99.9%)

Southern Miss- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Rice, vs. Charlotte, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97% (previous odds: 97.5%)

Texas A & M- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico, at Ole Miss, at LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96% (previous odds: 98%)

Appalachian State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Georgia State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95% (previous odds: 99.5%)

Akron- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, vs. Ohio, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94% (previous odds: 94%)

Western Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, at Northern Illinois, at Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91% (previous odds: 98.5%)

Georgia State- Record: 5-3 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: at Texas State, vs. Appalachian State, vs. Idaho; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% (previous odds: 64%)

Boston College- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. NC State, vs. UConn, at Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76% (previous odds: 76%)

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Eastern Michigan, at Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75% (previous odds: 49.5%)

Oregon- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona, vs. Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74% (previous odds: 77%)

Louisville- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia, vs. Syracuse, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%  (previous odds: 73%)

Arizona State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, at Oregon State, vs. Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71% (previous odds: 61%)

Navy- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. SMU, at Notre Dame, at Houston, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 78%)

Western Kentucky- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall, vs. Middle Tennessee, at FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% (previous odds: 74%)

Texas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas, at West Virginia, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 69%)

Middle Tennessee- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Charlotte, at Western Kentucky, vs. Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 57%)

Wake Forest- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Syracuse, vs. NC State, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 66%)

Utah- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State, at Washington, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% (previous odds: 55%)

Utah State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Hawaii, at Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 45%)

New Mexico State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Lafayette, vs. Idaho, vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 55.5%)

UNLV- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. BYU, at New Mexico, at Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59% (previous odds: 51%)

Louisiana Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic, at UTEP, vs. UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 62%)

Missouri- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tennessee, at Vanderbilt, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 41%)

UTSA- Record: 5-3 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: vs. UAB, vs. Marshall, at Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 60%)

UCLA- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State, at Southern California, vs. California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 56%)

Kansas State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, vs. Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% (previous odds: 48%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (33):

Syracuse- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wake Forest, at Louisville, vs. Boston College; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 52%)

Air Force- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wyoming, at Boise State, vs. Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 63%)

Tennessee- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, vs. LSU, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47.5% (previous odds: 47%)

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Ole Miss, vs. New Mexico State, vs. Georgia Southern, at Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 29%)

California- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Stanford, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 43%)

Georgia Tech- Record: 4-4 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia Tech, at Duke, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 67%)

Duke- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Army, vs. Georgia Tech, at Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 42%)

Temple- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Cincinnati, vs. UCF, at Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41.5% (previous odds: 28%)

Vanderbilt- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% (previous odds: 39%)

Texas Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Baylor, vs. TCU, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 54%)

Colorado- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern California, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39.5% (previous odds: 46%)

Nebraska- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Minnesota, at Penn State, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% (previous odds: 53%)

Florida- Record: 3-5 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: at South Carolina, vs. UAB, vs. Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38% (previous odds: 50.5%)

Indiana- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, vs. Rutgers, at Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 38%)

Eastern Michigan- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Central Michigan, at Miami-OH, vs. Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 32%)

Cincinnati- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, at East Carolina, vs. UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35.5% (previous odds: 19%)

Purdue- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Northwestern, at Iowa, vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 30%)

Minnesota- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nebraska, at Northwestern, vs. Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34.5% (previous odds: 40%)

Pittsburgh- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Carolina, at Virginia Tech, vs. Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 34%)

Arkansas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at LSU, vs. Mississippi State, vs. Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33.5% (previous odds: 33%)

Miami-OH- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Akron, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 35%)

Idaho- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Coastal Carolina, at New Mexico State, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 37%)

Tulane- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at East Carolina, vs. Houston, at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odds: 44%)

Old Dominion- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at FIU, vs. Rice, at Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22% (previous odds: 18%)

South Alabama- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State, at Georgia Southern, at New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% (previous odds: 36%)

Buffalo- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Bowling Green, at Ball State, vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%  (previous odds: 15%)

Hawaii- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Fresno State, at Utah State, vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10% (previous odds: 12%)

Rutgers- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Penn State, at Indiana, vs. Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% (previous odds: 5%)

Florida State- Record: 3-5 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, vs. Delaware State, at Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4% (previous odds: 2%)

UConn- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, vs. Boston College, at Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1% (previous odds: 4%)

Maryland- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan, at Michigan State, vs. Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.7% (previous odds: 3%)

New Mexico- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. at Texas A & M, vs. UNLV, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.5% (previous odds: 6%)

UL-Monroe- Record: 4-5 (only plays 11 games); Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.4% (previous odds: 0.3%)

Already Bowl Eligible (50):  UCF, South Florida, Memphis, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Marshall, Notre Dame, Army, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Southern California, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Troy, Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 96%), Houston (previous odds: 99%), North Texas (previous odds: 97%), UAB (previous odds: 95%), Northwestern (previous odds: 91%), West Virginia (previous odds: 68%), Iowa (previous odds: 65%), FIU (previous odds: 88%), Virginia (previous odds: 49%), Wyoming (previous odds: 93%), Fresno State (previous odds: 92%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (21):  Tulsa, North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor, Charlotte, Rice, UTEP, Brigham Young, Bowling Green, Nevada, San Jose State, Oregon State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss, Kent State (previous odds: 1%), Ball State (previous odds: 1.5%), UMass (previous odds: 0.6%), East Carolina (previous odds: 0.2%), Illinois (previous odds: 0.1%), Texas State (previous odds: 0.1%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 50

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 26 (76)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 21

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 33 (54)

 

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