Brad-ketology: January 22nd Edition

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance, and the bolded teams are squads who have already clinched automatic bids to either the NCAA or NIT.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop.

Also, just to clarify, my bracket projection is intended to project the NCAA Tournament field if it was chosen today.  Unlike some bracketologists, I am not trying to predict how each team will finish the season and then seed the teams based on that.  There is one slight exception to this rule, however, and that is that I have always chosen to award the projected automatic bid for each conference to my projected best team in that conference, and not the team who is currently leading the conference standings.   Given how unbalanced conference schedules are, it just seems like common sense to project that the best team in a conference will win the league championship, not the squad currently in first place.

Brad-ketology columns will be published at least twice a week (typically on Mondays and Fridays).  This bracket projection has been updated through all games played on Sunday January 21st.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Villanova, Virginia, Purdue, Duke

2-seeds: Kansas, North Carolina, Xavier, West Virginia

3-seeds: Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma, Tennessee

4-seeds: Arizona, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Rhode Island

5-seeds: Seton Hall, Kentucky, Ohio State, Arizona State

6-seeds: Butler, Arkansas, Florida, Louisville

7-seeds: Michigan, Creighton, Miami-FL, Wichita State

8-seeds: Nevada, Cincinnati, TCU, Florida State

9-seeds: Alabama, Texas A & M, Missouri, Texas

10-seeds: Marquette, Syracuse, Providence, St. Mary’s

11-seeds: Georgia, Gonzaga, Washington, SMU, Houston, Maryland

12-seeds: New Mexico State, Western Kentucky, Buffalo, South Dakota State

13-seeds: Loyola-IL, Vermont, East Tennessee State, Wright State

14-seeds: Northeastern, UL-Lafayette, Belmont, UC Davis

15-seeds: Stephen F. Austin, Bucknell, Montana, Radford

16-seeds: Canisius, Robert Morris, Penn, Florida Gulf Coast, North Carolina A & T, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: South Carolina, St. Bonaventure, New Mexico State, UCLA

2-seeds: Notre Dame, Western Kentucky, Southern California, Kansas State

3-seeds: UCF, Buffalo, Middle Tennessee, Boise State

4-seeds: Colorado, Utah, Nebraska, NC State

5-seeds: Minnesota, Mississippi State, Oklahoma State, South Dakota State

6-seeds: Boston College, Loyola-IL, Baylor, Oregon

7-seeds: Temple, Stanford, Missouri State, Virginia Tech

8-seeds: Vermont, Iowa State, East Tennessee State, LSU

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: Wright State, Ole Miss, Northeastern, Tulane, UL-Lafayette, UConn, Belmont, Memphis, UC Davis



    • Yep- the Bearcats are being extremely overseeded right now in my opinion. They don’t have a single win over a team that is firmly in the tournament. It is tough to get above the 7 or 8 line with that kind of profile.

    • Yep- the Bearcats are being extremely overseeded right now in my opinion. They don’t have a single win over a team that is firmly in the tournament. It is tough to get above the 7 or 8 line with that kind of profile.

      • Thank you for the response. I think you’re off base but was just curious on your rationale. I think the fact that they have 4 quadrant 1 wins, all away from home, makes them a pretty easy 5 right now. All of the advanced metrics and even the rpi likes them at 5 or better now. Thanks for taking the time to do this, I couldn’t keep up with it myself.

  1. Exactly. The quadrants is a major metric that shows UC much better than an 8. Kenpom puts them at a #2 seed and Sagarin I want to say puts them at a #3

    • Thats right. They still lack anything resembling a quality win. If the beat Wichita, then I’ll move them up.

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