Bowl Bubble Watch- Inaugural 2018 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the tenth-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw two years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots aren’t filled.  One other thing to consider for this season’s projections is that several teams had games cancelled due to adverse weather early in the season. Some of these teams have rescheduled other games already (see NC State, East Carolina), which are of course included in this analysis, but for the teams that haven’t (see South Carolina, Virginia Tech), this analysis only includes their odds of making a bowl based on their 11 currently scheduled games.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 77 teams on the list with 38 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 39 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 75 bowl eligible teams for 2018 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting three 5-7 teams to make bowls based on their APR scores.  This list is updated through all games played on October 27th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (38):

Wisconsin- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Rutgers, at Penn State, at Purdue, vs. Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99.5%

NC State- Record: 5-2; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida State, vs. Wake Forest, at Louisville, at North Carolina, vs. East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Middle Tennessee- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Western Kentucky, at UTEP, at Kentucky, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98.5%

Michigan State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Maryland, vs. Ohio State, at Nebraska, vs. Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98%

Marshall- Record: 5-2 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); ; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Miss, vs. Charlotte, vs. UTSA, at FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97.5%

Northwestern- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Notre Dame, at Iowa, at Minnesota, vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97%

Stanford- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, vs. Oregon State, at California, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96.5%

Iowa State- Record: 4-3; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. Baylor, at Texas, vs. Kansas State, vs. Incarnate Word; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96%

Oregon- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. UCLA, at Utah, vs. Arizona State, at Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95.5%

Temple- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, at Houston, vs. South Florida, at UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95%

Appalachian State- Record: 5-2 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: at Coastal Carolina, at Texas State, vs. Georgia State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94.5%

Mississippi State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Louisiana Tech, at Alabama, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94%

Texas A & M- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, vs. Ole Miss, vs. UAB, vs. LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 93%

Auburn- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas A & M, at Georgia, vs. Liberty, at Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Miami (FL)- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Duke, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90%

Nevada- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado State, at San Jose State, at UNLV; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84%

Southern California- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon State, vs.California, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81%

Arkansas State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, at Coastal Carolina, vs. UL-Monroe, at Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%

Toledo- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State, at Northern Illinois, at Kent State, vs. Central Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78%

Hawaii- Record: 6-4 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah State, vs. UNLV, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76%

Memphis- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at East Carolina, vs. Tulsa, at SMU, vs. Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75%

Northern Illinois- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Akron, vs. Toledo, vs. Miami-OH, at Western Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 73%

Ohio- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, at Miami-OH, vs. Buffalo, vs. Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72%

Missouri- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. Vandy, at Tennessee, vs. Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%

Oklahoma State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule:at Baylor, at Oklahoma, vs. West Virginia, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68%

Brigham Young- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, at UMass, vs. New Mexico State, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%

Duke- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, vs. North Carolina, at Clemson, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66%

Texas Tech- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma, vs. Texas, at Kansas State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-3 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: vs. Boston College, at Pittsburgh, vs. Miami-FL, vs. Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

UL-Lafayette- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Troy, vs. Georgia State, vs. South Alabama, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63%

Purdue- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa, at Minnesota, vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Eastern Michigan- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Central Michigan, vs. Akron, at Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

UL-Monroe- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama, at Arkansas State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58%

California- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, at Southern Cal, vs. Stanford; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57%

Maryland- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan State, at Indiana, vs. Ohio State, at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Coastal Carolina- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Appalachian State, vs. Arkansas State, vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Colorado- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona, vs. Washington State, vs. Utah, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

Arizona State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, vs. UCLA, at Oregon, at Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

——————————————————————————————

 

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (39):

Air Force- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Army, vs. New Mexico, at Wyoming, vs. Colorado State;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Florida Atlantic- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at FIU, vs. Western Kentucky, at North Texas, vs. Charlotte;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

South Carolina- Record: 4-3 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: at Ole Miss, at Florida, vs. UT-Chattanooga, at Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Arizona- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado, at Washington State, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

Wake Forest- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Syracuse, at NC State, vs. Pittsburgh, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Akron- Record: 4-3 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule:vs. Northern Illinois, at Eastern Michigan, vs. Bowling Green, at Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

Minnesota- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, vs. Purdue, vs. Northwestern, at Wisconsin; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Indiana- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Maryland, at Michigan, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Georgia Tech- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at North Carolina, vs. Miami-FL, vs. Virginia, at Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

Wyoming- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Jose State, vs. Air Force, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Tennessee- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte, vs. Kentucky, vs. Missouri, at Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37.5%

Baylor- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, vs. TCU, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

Vanderbilt- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36%

Pittsburgh- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. Virginia Tech, at Wake Forest, at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Florida State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at NC State, at Notre Dame, vs. Boston College, vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33%

Miami-OH- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule:at Buffalo, vs. Ohio, at Northern Illinois, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

SMU- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at UConn, vs. Memphis, at Tulsa; ;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%

Charlotte- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, at Marshall, vs. FIU, at Florida Atlantic;Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24%

Tulane- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Florida, vs. East Carolina, at Houston, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23%

Kansas State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at TCU, vs. Kansas, vs. Texas Tech, at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

TCU- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, at West Virginia, at Baylor, vs. Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

South Alabama- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas State, vs. UL-Monroe, at UL-Lafayette, vs. Coastal Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Illinois- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Minnesota, at Nebraska, vs. Iowa, at Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13%

New Mexico- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Diego State, at Air Force, vs. Boise State, vs. Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11%

Southern Miss- Record: 3-4 (only scheduled to play 11 games unless they reschedule cancelled game); Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at UAB, vs. Louisiana Tech, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

Georgia State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas State, at UL-Lafayette, at Appalachian State, vs. Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9%

UTSA- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at UAB, vs. FIU, at Marshall, vs. North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8%

Kansas- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Oklahoma, vs. Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

Colorado State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Nevada, vs. Utah State, at Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

East Carolina- Record: 2-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at Tulane, vs. UConn, at Cincinnati, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Ball State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, vs. Western Michigan, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

UNLV- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Fresno State, at San Diego State, at Hawaii, vs. Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3.5%

Navy Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Cincinnati, at UCF, vs. Tulsa, at Tulane, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Nebraska- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Illinois, vs. Michigan State, at Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Louisville- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, at Syracuse, vs. NC State, vs. Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Texas State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, vs. Appalachian State, at Troy, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.7%

UMass- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Liberty, vs. Brigham Young, at Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.5%

UCLA- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, at Arizona State, vs. Southern Cal, vs. Stanford; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.3%

Oregon State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Cal, at Stanford, at Washington, vs. Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1%

Already Bowl Eligible (37):  Boston College, Clemson, Syracuse, Virginia, Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida, UCF, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia, FIU, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, UAB, Army, Notre Dame, Buffalo, Western Michigan, Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, Utah State, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Georgia Southern, Troy

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (16):  Ole Miss, Liberty, UConn, Tulsa, North Carolina, Rutgers, Old Dominion, Rice, UTEP, Western Kentucky, New Mexico State, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Kent State, San Jose State, Arkansas

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 37

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 38 (75)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 16

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 39 (55)

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