Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the eleventh-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw three years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots are not filled.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 41 teams on the list with 15 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 26 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 78 bowl eligible teams for 2019 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting there to be an equal number of bowl eligible teams as bowl bids.  This list is updated through all games played on November 16th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (15):

Kentucky- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UT-Martin, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% (previous odds: 62%, 59%) 

Michigan State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72% (previous odds: 91%, 81%) 

Buffalo- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo, vs. Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% (previous odds: 82%, 82%)

TCU- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 69% (previous odds: 54%, 52%) 

Tennessee– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 51.5%, 66%) 

Washington State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon State, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 67%, 51%) 

Ohio- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Bowling Green, at Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% (previous odds: 81%, 68%) 

Liberty- Record: 6-4 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 64%, 61%) 

Arizona State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon, vs. Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 66%, 62%) 

Charlotte- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Marshall, at Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% (previous odds: 54.5%, 57%) 

Fresno State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Nevada, at San Jose State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% (previous odds: 70%, 60%) 

Eastern Michigan- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Northern Illinois, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% (previous odds: 50.5%, 50.5%)

Mississippi State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Abilene Christian, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 56%, 56%)

North Carolina- Record: 4-6; vs. Mercer, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 55%, 55%)

North Texas- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Rice, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51.5% (previous odds: 52%, 51.5%) 

——————————————————————————————

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (26):

California– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule:, vs. Southern Cal, at Stanford, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 41%, 48%) 

Army- Record: 5-6 (need 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% (previous odds: 43%, 44%)

Duke- Record: 4-6; at Wake Forest, vs. Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% (previous odds: 53%, 52.%) 

NC State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, vs. UNC; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% (previous odds: 47%, 46%) 

Nebraska- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Maryland, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38% (previous odds: 39%, 39%)

Kent State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State, at Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 31%, 27%)

Boston College- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Notre Dame, at Pitt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 58% 36%) 

Oregon State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, at Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35.5% (previous odds: 34%, 22%) 

Coastal Carolina– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Monroe, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 42%, 38%) 

Ball State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34.5% (previous odds: 37%, 35%) 

UL-Monroe- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Coastal Carolina, at UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 29%, 47%) 

Syracuse- Record: 4-6; at Louisville, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33.5% (previous odds: 20%, 20%)

FIU- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 35%, 33%) 

UCLA– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Southern Cal, vs. California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 35.5%, 35.5%)

West Virginia- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma State, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31% (previous odds: 36%, 23%) 

San Jose State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UNLV, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% (previous odds: 33%, 30%) 

Troy– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule:, at UL-Lafayette, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (previous odds: 18%, 24%) 

Northern Illinois- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Western Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 26% (previous odds: 8%, 8%)

Texas Tech- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25% (previous odds: 40%, 42%) 

Stanford– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. California, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 52.5%, 43%) 

Arizona– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19% (previous odds: 21%, 21%) 

UTSA- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic, at Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% (previous odds: 5%, 19%) 

Purdue- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16% (previous odds: 6%, 16%) 

Colorado– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15% (previous odds: 10%, 15%) 

South Florida- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11% (previous odds: 30%, 16%) 

Colorado State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wyoming, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% (previous odds: 7%, 7%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (63):  (1) Clemson, (2) Pittsburgh, (3) Virginia, (4) Wake Forest, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Memphis, (7) Navy, (8) SMU, (9) Tulane, (10) UCF, (11) Baylor, (12) Kansas State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Oklahoma State, (15) Indiana, (16) Iowa, (17) Michigan, (18) Minnesota, (19) Ohio State, (20) Penn State, (21) Wisconsin, (22) Florida Atlantic, (23) Louisiana Tech, (24) Marshall, (25) UAB, (26) Central Michigan, (27) Air Force, (28) Boise State, (29) San Diego State, (30) Wyoming, (31) Oregon, (32) Utah, (33) Alabama, (34) Auburn, (35) Georgia, (36) Florida, (37) LSU, (38) Texas A & M, (39) Appalachian State, (40) Georgia State, (41) UL-Lafayette, (42) Notre Dame, (43) Toledo (previous odds: 83%), (44) Western Michigan (previous odds: 74%), (45) Temple (previous odds: 98%), (46) Washington (previous odds: 81.5%), (47) Western Kentucky (previous odds: 60%), (48) Virginia Tech (previous odds: 77%), (49) Southern Miss (previous odds: 78%), (50) Miami-FL (previous odds: 86%), (51) Texas (previous odds: 80%) (52) Southern Cal (previous odds: 65%), (53) Illinois (previous odds: 57%), (54) Nevada (previous odds: 59%), (55) Miami-OH (previous odds: 79%, 96%), (56) Florida State (previous odds: 48%, 98%), (57) BYU (previous odds: 99%, 99.5%), (58) Iowa State (previous odds: 84%, 83%), (59) Arkansas State (previous odds: 79.5%, 79.5%), (60) Hawaii (previous odds: 63%, 75%), (61) Utah State  (previous odds: 51%, 67%), (62) Georgia Southern (previous odds: 68%, 63%), (63) Louisville (previous odds: 76%, 72%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (26):  (1) UConn, (2) East Carolina, (3) Tulsa, (4) Northwestern, (5) Rutgers, (6) Old Dominion, (7) Rice, (8) UTEP, (9) Akron, (10) New Mexico, (11) UNLV, (12) Arkansas, (13) Missouri, (14) South Alabama, (15) New Mexico State, (16) UMass, (17) Vanderbilt (previous odds: 2%), (18) Maryland (previous odds: 0.5%), (19) Georgia Tech (previous odds: 1%), (20) Bowling Green (previous odds: 3%, 3%), (21) Kansas (previous odds: 4%, 4%), (22) Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 45%, 45%), (23) Houston (previous odds: 9%, 9%), (24) South Carolina (previous odds: 32%, 6%), (25) Texas State (previous odds: 1.5%, 2%), (26) Ole Miss (previous odds: 16%, 18%)

 

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 63

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 15 (78)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 26

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 26 (52)

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