Brad-ketology: February 14th Edition

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop. You may also notice that some teams are listed in both the NCAA and NIT fields. These are teams predicted to be automatic qualifiers to the NCAA tournament that would also earn at-large bids to the NIT tournament but not the NCAA tourney. There are several reasons reason these teams are displayed like this.. First and foremost, it shows how close those teams are to getting at-large bids in the NCAA tournament field. Secondly, it shows where those squads would be seeded if in fact they lost in their conference tournament and garnered an automatic bid to the NIT. Finally, there will inevitably be 6-8 regular season mid-major conference champions that lose their conference tourney and earn an NIT automatic bid, so by going ahead and adding 6-8 teams that may later get removed, we end up with an NIT cut line that is more representative of what it will actually look like on Selection Sunday.

Moreover, just to clarify, my bracket projection is intended to project the NCAA Tournament field if it was chosen today.  Unlike some bracketologists, I am not trying to predict how each team will finish the season and then seed the teams based on that.  There is one slight exception to this rule, however, and that is that I have always chosen to award the projected automatic bid for each conference to the best team in that conference, and not the team who is currently leading the conference standings.  Given how unbalanced conference schedules are, it just seems like common sense to project that the best team in a conference will win the league championship, not the squad currently in first place. 

This bracket projection has been updated through all games played on Sunday February 13th. Please feel free to comment or debate.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: GonzagaArizona, Auburn, Baylor

2-seeds: Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Duke

3-seeds: Villanova, Texas Tech, Illinois, Tennessee

4-seeds: Houston, Wisconsin, UCLA, Providence

5-seeds: Alabama, Texas, LSU, Ohio State

6-seeds: Michigan State, Xavier, Iowa, UConn

7-seeds: Marquette, Southern California, Saint Mary’s, Seton Hall

8-seeds: Arkansas, Boise State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

9-seeds: Indiana, TCU, Murray State, Wyoming

10-seeds: Loyola-Chicago, Colorado State, San Francisco, Memphis

11-seeds: Michigan, Wake Forest, Brigham Young, SMU

12-seeds: Notre Dame, Belmont, Florida, DavidsonNorth Texas, Iona

13-seeds: Chattanooga, Vermont, Toledo, South Dakota State

14-seeds: New Mexico State, Wagner, Liberty, Texas State

15-seeds: Montana State, Yale, Colgate, Long Beach State

16-seeds: Longwood, Norfolk State, Cleveland State, UNC Wilmington, Texas Southern, New Orleans

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Miami-FL, Kansas State, Dayton, VCU

2-seeds: Saint Louis, San Diego State, Oregon, North Carolina

3-seeds: North Texas, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Washington State

4-seeds: UAB, Utah State, West Virginia, Mississippi State

5-seeds: Rutgers, Northwestern, Virginia, Stanford

6-seeds: Iona, Fresno State, Chattanooga, Missouri State

7-seeds: Santa Clara, Vanderbilt, Cincinnati, Vermont

8-seeds: Toledo, UCF, St. John’s, Syracuse

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: South Dakota State, Wichita State, Texas A & M, Florida State

New Orleans to host NCAA Men's Final Four for sixth time in 2022

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s