Brad-ketology: February 28th Edition

The teams below are displayed below on an S-curve, so they are ranked from left to right within each seeding line.  The italicized teams are ones predicted to win their conference tourney and gain an automatic bid to the dance.  For the conferences who currently have NCAA tourney teams, it is assumed that one of those teams will win their conference tourney.  If not, then a stolen bid would result, and the number of at-large bids would drop. You may also notice that some teams are listed in both the NCAA and NIT fields. These are teams predicted to be automatic qualifiers to the NCAA tournament that would also earn at-large bids to the NIT tournament but not the NCAA tourney. There are several reasons reason these teams are displayed like this.. First and foremost, it shows how close those teams are to getting at-large bids in the NCAA tournament field. Secondly, it shows where those squads would be seeded if in fact they lost in their conference tournament and garnered an automatic bid to the NIT. Finally, there will inevitably be 6-8 regular season mid-major conference champions that lose their conference tourney and earn an NIT automatic bid, so by going ahead and adding 6-8 teams that may later get removed, we end up with an NIT cut line that is more representative of what it will actually look like on Selection Sunday.

Moreover, just to clarify, my bracket projection is intended to project the NCAA Tournament field if it was chosen today.  Unlike some bracketologists, I am not trying to predict how each team will finish the season and then seed the teams based on that.  There is one slight exception to this rule, however, and that is that I have always chosen to award the projected automatic bid for each conference to the best team in that conference, and not the team who is currently leading the conference standings.  Given how unbalanced conference schedules are, it just seems like common sense to project that the best team in a conference will win the league championship, not the squad currently in first place. 

This bracket projection has been updated through all games played on Sunday February 27th. Please feel free to comment or debate.

NCAA Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, Arizona

2-seeds: Auburn, Duke, Kentucky, Texas Tech

3-seeds: Villanova, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Purdue

4-seeds: Providence, UConn, Houston, UCLA

5-seeds: Texas, Illinois, Arkansas, Alabama

6-seeds: Ohio State, Saint Mary’s, Southern Cal, LSU

7-seeds: Marquette, Iowa, Iowa State, Boise State

8-seeds: Michigan State, Xavier, Seton Hall, TCU

9-seeds: Murray State, Colorado State, San Francisco, Wyoming

10-seeds: Michigan, San Diego State, Loyola-Chicago, Memphis

11-seeds: Indiana, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, North Carolina

12-seeds: North Texas, Miami-FL, Brigham Young, SMU, Davidson, Iona

13-seeds: Chattanooga, South Dakota State, Vermont, Towson

14-seeds: New Mexico State, Toledo, Princeton, Texas State

15-seeds: Jacksonville State, Colgate, Montana State, Longwood

16-seeds: Cal State Fullerton, Cleveland State, Norfolk State, Texas Southern, Nicholls State, Bryant

NIT Tourney Field:

1-seeds: Creighton, Oklahoma, Davidson, VCU

2-seeds: Virginia Tech, Florida, Dayton, Oregon

3-seeds: UAB, Rutgers, Kansas State, Belmont

4-seeds: Mississippi State, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure, Washington State

5-seeds: Utah State, Virginia, Iona, Colorado

6-seeds: West Virginia, St. John’s, South Carolina, Texas A & M

7-seeds: Missouri State, Chattanooga, Santa Clara, South Dakota State

8-seeds: Vermont, Fresno State, Vanderbilt, UCF

Ranking of Other Postseason Contenders: Towson, Syracuse, Wichita State

New Orleans to host NCAA Men's Final Four for sixth time in 2022

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s