Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 16th annual college football preview guide which will contain 18 entries in all.  Without further ado, here are the teams I am predicting to disappointment this season.  These teams are ordered in the relative disparity between my picks and the experts average while also taking into account the significance of each pick.

	Disappointment teams	My Predictions:	Experts Predictions:
1	Baylor	66th in nation (-56); 5th in Big 12 (-3)	10th in nation; 2nd in Big 12
2	Boston College	93rd in nation (-50); 7th in ACC Atlantic (-2)	43rd in nation; 5th in ACC Atlantic
3	Pittsburgh	54th in nation (-27); 4th in ACC Coastal (-3)	27th in nation; 1st in ACC Coastal
4	Iowa State	89th in nation (-47); 8th in Big 12 (-3)	42nd in nation; 5th in Big 12
5	Florida	63rd in nation (-32); 4th in SEC West (-2)	31st in nation; 2nd in SEC East
6	Notre Dame	8th in nation (-35)	43rd in nation;
7	Texas A & M	18th in nation (-13); 4th in SEC West (-2)	5th in nation; 2nd in SEC West
8	Arkansas	45th in nation (-29); 6th in SEC West (-3)	16th in nation; 3rd in SEC West
9	Middle Tennessee	124th in nation (-13); 9th in C-USA (-4)	111th in nation; 5th in C-USA
10	Minnesota	50th in nation (-11); 5th in Big Ten West (-2)	39th in nation; 3rd in Big Ten West

In 2019, Baylor was my # 4 surprise team, as I correctly predicted their meteoric rise under Matt Rhule. This season, I am putting Baylor at the top of my disappointment picks, as I expect them to take a significant step back after their 2022 Big 12 Championship. The Bears went from 2-7 in 2020 to 12-2 in 2021, and I think they will settle right between those two extremes in 2022. This program had a magical season last year, but their inflated turnover margin (+13) and luck in close games (4-1) isn’t repeatable. Baylor also loses its quarterback, top two running backs, top three receivers, and top tackler from last year’s squad. For these reasons, the Bears top my national list of disappointment teams in 2022.