Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season. This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 17th annual college football preview guide which will contain 18 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record. These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog. The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Mountain West Conference in 2023, who like the MAC has shied away from expansion/realignment efforts up to this point in time.
| 1 | Boise State (12-1, 8-0)- conference champion |
Positional Strength: Running Back
Positional Weakness: Linebacker
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Memphis (September 30)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Washington (September 2)
Bottom Line: After a rocky start to his tenure, Andy Avalos turned things around in a big way last year as this team ended up winning eight of its final ten games. This year, they should be even better as they return nine starters on offense, including their starting quarterback and entire running back and receiving corps, as well as their top tackler from a top 10 defense nationally. This could be the best Boise team we have seen since the Chris Peterson days, and no one plays a bigger week 1 game than the Broncos, as an upset win in Seattle could setup a legitimate college football playoff push.
| 2 | Air Force (10-3, 6-2)- conference runner-up |
Positional Strength: Offensive Line
Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. San Diego State (September 30)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at San Jose State (September 23)
Bottom Line: Troy Calhoun has truly transformed this program into a perennial Mountain West powerhouse that is the class of the service academies. I expect a fourth straight double digit win season for the Falcons (excluding the shorted Covid year in 2020) and for them to give Boise all they can handle in the season finale and potentially the conference championship game as well.
| 3 | San Diego State (7-5, 5-3) |
Positional Strength: Quarterback
Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Fresno State (November 25)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Hawaii (October 14)
Bottom Line: The Aztecs will continue to stay to their Rocky Long/Brady Hoke style of play and play really good defense while also struggling to score. Quarterback Jalen Mayden is an excellent dual threat quarterback who may have to do a lot himself offensively this season due to the inexperience at running back and receiver.
| 4 | Fresno State (8-4, 5-3) |
Positional Strength: Offensive Line
Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Purdue (September 2)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Utah State (October 14)
Bottom Line: I am picking the Bulldogs to take a slight step back after back-to-back 10 win seasons due to the losses of Jake Haner, Jordan Mims, and the top three receivers from last year.
| 5 | Wyoming (6-6, 5-3) |
Positional Strength: Linebacker
Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Colorado State (November 4)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Appalachian State (September 23)
Bottom Line: After a rough start to his tenure, Craigh Bohl has transformed this program into a physical football team with a high floor every season. This year is no different as I am predicting the Cowboys to find a way to a bowl game thanks to what should be an elite defense, despite a very difficult schedule that features games against App State and Texas Tech and visits to Texas, Air Force, and Boise.
| 6 | Utah State (6-6, 4-4) |
Positional Strength: Wide Receiver
Positional Weakness: Running Back
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Fresno State (October 14)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at New Mexico (November 25)
Bottom Line: I expect the Aggies to continue their 5 year bowl streak (excluding the Covid year) thanks to a great pass defense and stellar dual threat quarterback in Cooper Legas.
| 7 | Nevada (5-7, 3-5) |
Positional Strength: Defensive Line
Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UNLV (October 14)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Colorado State (November 18)
Bottom Line: The bottom of this league should be much improved in 2023, as Hawaii, Nevada, Colorado State, and New Mexico were all atrocious in 2022. In fact, I am calling for Ken Wilson’s squad to flirt with bowl eligibility this season due to the fact they are more experienced on both sides of the ball and have upgraded their skill positions through the portal by bringing in guys like new quarterback Brendon Lewis (previously at Colorado).
| 8 | New Mexico (4-8, 3-5) |
Positional Strength: Quarterback
Positional Weakness: Linebacker
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Utah State (November 25)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UMass (September 23)
Bottom Line: No one enters the season on more of a hot seat than Danny Gonzales as he only has 7 career wins entering year 4 in Albuquerque, including just one conference victory over the past two seasons. I am calling for the Logos to triple that league win number this season thanks to what should be a much improved offense with eight returning starters and a stud QB transfer in Dylan Hopkins. However, I am still not sure a 4-8 record will be enough to keep Gonzales around for a fifth season.
| 9 | San Jose State (5-7, 3-5) |
Positional Strength: Quarterback
Positional Weakness: Defensive Line
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oregon State (September 3)- early season upset special!
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at New Mexico (October 14)
Bottom Line: You will see the Spartans feature on my list of national disappointment teams for 2023, as I think Brent Brennan has hit the ceiling of what he can accomplish at this school. This squad only returns four defensive starters from a unit that was the strength of this team last season.
| 10 | Hawaii (5-8, 2-6) |
Positional Strength: Running Back
Positional Weakness: Defensive Line
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Stanford (September 1)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at New Mexico (October 21)
Bottom Line: This perenially competitive program really fell off a cliff in 2022 by posting a 3-10 record that included a win over an FCS school. Nevertheless, head coach and former QB legend Timmy Chang should take a step forward with this team in 2023, as they bring back their starting quarterback and nine defensive starters and will have had another year to master this run and shoot offense.
| 10 | Colorado State (4-8, 2-6) |
Positional Strength: Wide Receiver
Positional Weakness: Offensive Line
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Washington State (September 2)- another MWC over Pac-12 early season upset!
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Hawaii (November 25)
Bottom Line: It is amazing how far this once prominent program has fallen over the past few years as they have failed to win more than four games in any season since 2017. A lot was expected from Jay Norvell when he took this job at the end of the 2021 season, but this team struggled mightily in year one. This season I think they will take a slight step forward due to the amount of experience on the roster (17 returning starters) but it going to take a few years for Norvell to get things turned around in Fort Collins.
| 10 | UNLV (3-9, 2-6) |
Positional Strength: Wide Receiver
Positional Weakness: Defensive Line
Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Hawaii (September 30)
Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Colorado State (October 21)
Bottom Line: It is astonishing to me that this program has not gone bowling for 10 years now! They made two seemingly good coaching hires in the past decade with Tony Sanchez and Marcus Arroyo, but neither worked out for whatever reason. Now, Barry Odom comes to town after experiencing struggles as both the Arkansas defensive coordinator (the unit was 123rd nationally last season) and Missouri head coach (0 bowl wins in four seasons). This is my least favorite of the recent UNLV hires, but maybe this is the one that actually works. Nevertheless, this is a long rebuilding process in Sin City, and the Rebels will struggle in 2023.
Ramblings of the Ultimate Sports Sentimentalist 
[…] Mountain West– UNLV/Boise State (There are four teams left in the Mountain West championship race, and they are all playing each other this weekend. The first place team, UNLV, hosts one of the three teams tied for second, San Jose State, on Friday afternoon at 3:00, and then one hour later, the other two teams tied for second place, Boise and Air Force, will face off on the Smurf Turf. UNLV clinches a title game berth with a victory, and if the Rebels win as they are expected to, then the Boise State/Air Force matchup will be a conference championship play-in game. However, if San Jose State beats UNLV, then things get a little more complicated as there will be a three-way tie for first place in the league between UNLV, San Jose State, and the Boise/Air Force winner. In this situation, then according to the official Mountain West tiebreaker procedures, a composite average of “selected computer rankings” will serve as the applicable tiebreaker. I am not really sure why the league doesn’t list out what ranking systems they use to create that “composite average”, but I am going to assure that it is similar to the aforementioned AAC who uses a composite ranking of the Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe computer rankings to break similar ties. UNLV’s respective rankings in each of these metrics are currently 34, 33, 24, and 23 (average = 28.5), Air Force’s rankings are currently 45, 47, 42, and 52 ( average = 46.5), Boise State’s rankings are 81, 72, 60, and 62 (average = 68.75), and San Jose State’s rankings are 75, 70, 68, and 64 (average = 69.25). Based on this data, I think it is safe to say that UNLV will still qualify for the Mountain West title game even if they lose on Saturday. In addition, Air Force seems like a clear second place in these numbers, so a win over Boise would also catapult them into the title game. The most intriguing and controversial scenario will occur if Boise beats Air Force and San Jose State upsets UNLV. In this situation, UNLV would get one title game spot, as discussed above, and the other spot would come down to a very close and very mysterious computer ranking comparison between San Jose State and Boise State. I am going to call for Boise and UNLV to both win next weekend, and set up a matchup between the Broncos and Rebels the following Saturday. Interestingly enough, Boise was the team I predicted to finish first in this league in the preseason, and UNLV was the tea…!) […]