Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 17th annual college football preview guide which will contain 18 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the American Athletic Conference in 2023, which will have a completely new look this season due to several new additions and departures.

1	SMU (11-2, 7-1)– conference champion

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at TCU (September 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Memphis (November 18)

Bottom Line: The three biggest perennial powerhouses in this conference (Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston) are off to the Big 12 in 2023, which leaves this league race more wide open than ever. The Mustangs bring back eight starters from an offense that ranked top 15 nationally in yards and points, and with Rhett Lashlee at the helm, I think SMU finds a way to win its first conference championship since prior to their death penalty days, in 1984.

2	UTSA (9-4, 6-2)– conference runner-up

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Houston (September 2)- the Roadrunners will get revenge after their heartbreaking loss to the Cougars in the 2022 opener.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Temple (October 7)

Bottom Line: The Roadrunners have most of the key parts back from a team that has won back-to-back conference championships. However, they are taking a big step up in competition moving from C-USA to the AAC, and the loss of top receiver Zakhari Franklin will loom larger than people realize.

3	Memphis (9-3, 6-2)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Missouri (September 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at North Texas (October 28)

Bottom Line: The Tigers took a step back in 2021 and ’22 after contending for the conference crown in each of the four seasons prior to that. The departures of UCF, Houston, and Cincinnati should pave the way for Ryan Silverfield’s to re-emerge as a perennial powerhouse in this conference, but I am calling for them to fall just short of the conference title game in 2023.

4	Tulane (7-5, 6-2)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UTSA (November 25)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at East Carolina (November 4)- The Pirates are good for one big home upset every year and I think the Wave are this season’s Dowdy-Ficklen victim.

Bottom Line: The Green Wave experienced a magical season in 2022, which I was lucky enough to be apart of when I attended their AAC title game victory over UCF. They will be talented and well-coached again in 2023, but the losses of stud running back Tyjae Spears and their top five tacklers on defense will prevent them from repeating as league champions.

5	East Carolina (6-6, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Tulane (November 4)- The Pirates are good for one big home upset every year and I think the Wave are this season’s Dowdy-Ficklen victim.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Rice (September 30)

Bottom Line: The Pirates lost a ton, especially offensively, from last year’s 8 win squad, but I have enough confidence in this coaching staff to call for them to find a way to bowl eligibility again 2023. They will be breaking in new sophomore starters at both the quarterback and running back positions, so their success could hinge on the development of Garcia and Gunn.

6	Florida Atlantic (6-6, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Ohio (September 9)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. East Carolina (November 11)

Bottom Line: The Owls have had three straight blockbuster coaching hires in Kiffin, Taggart, and now Herman, and while Taggart’s tenure was largely disappointing, I think Herman is a good enough coach to get this experienced squad (18 returning starters) to the six win mark for the first time this decade.

7	Tulsa (5-7, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. North Texas (November 18)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Northern Illinois (September 23)

Bottom Line: New coach Kevin Wilson has proven to be a great offensive coordinator in the college game, but he struggled in his first head coaching gig at Indiana a decade ago. I think he could have more success in this time around at Tulsa, but it is going to take him a few years to get this program going as he breaks in an entirely new starting quarterback, running back, receiving corps, and linebacking corps this season while also having to face Power 5 juggernauts Washington and Oklahoma in their first two games against FBS competition.

8	North Texas (6-6, 4-4)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Memphis (October 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Louisiana Tech (September 16)

Bottom Line: I am not really sure what the administration expects out of this program as they fired Seth Littrell at the end of last season, despite the fact that he had taken them to six bowl games and a conference title game in the span of seven seasons. Now, Eric Morris takes over after a successful tenure at Incarnate Word, and while the cupboard certainly isn’t bare in Denton (15 returning starters), the combination of adjusting to a new coaching staff with new schemes and a new conference with tougher opposition has me calling for another .500 season for the Mean Green.

9	Navy (5-7, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. East Carolina (November 18)- the Middies seem to have the Pirates number with 3 wins in their last 4 meetings

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Charlotte (October 14)

Bottom Line: The Midshipmen, like North Texas above, are another program who made a controversial coaching change in the offseason as they fired Ken Niumatalolo after a mostly successful fifteen year tenure in Annapolis. Even more surprisingly, they replaced him with an in-house hire in defensive coordinator Brian Newberry. The Middies will again be stout defensively against the run and will wreck havoc of their own on undisciplined defensive units with their triple option attack, but at the end of the day, the lack of speed and over all talent on this squad coupled with a difficult schedule, will bring about a fourth straight losing season for the Naval Academy.

10	UAB (6-6, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Florida Atlantic (November 4)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Navy (November 11)

Bottom Line: The Trent Dilfer experiment will be an interesting one in Birmingham, and while he is certain to infuse excitement into this program, this team is only returning seven starters while also stepping up into a better conference in 2023.  As a result, I am calling for the Blazers to have their worst season since the program re-emerged from the dead (literally) in 2017. 

11	South Florida (4-8, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Temple (November 11)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UConn (October 21)

Bottom Line: It is truly astonishing how much this once prominent program has fallen, as this team went to four straight bowl games from 2015-2018 and has failed to win more than four games since then.  Alex Golesh, the young Russian prodigy, now takes over as head coach to try to resurrect this program after a wildly successful run as Tennessee offensive coordinator.  Unfortunately, the Bulls return their talented QB Bohannon, but not much else from an offensive unit that was the strength of the team last year. 

12	Temple (5-7, 3-5)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UTSA (October 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at USF (November 11)

Bottom Line: You can usually count on the Owls to spring an upset or two at home each season, and while I do think Temple will taken overall step forward in 2023 after back to back three win seasons, it is going to take more than a couple of years for this program to bounce back from the atrocious tenure of Rod Carey who drove this program straight off a cliff from 2019-2021.

13	Rice (5-7, 2-6)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Houston (September 9)- hometown upset special!

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at USF (September 23)

Bottom Line: I am calling for all of the programs transferring in from Conference USA to suffer some growing pains in 2023, which is why I think these Owls (yes there are three schools with this mascot in this league now) will fall short of bowl eligibility, even though they are bringing in a former five star quarterback in J.T. Daniels.  Daniels will become the first collegiate quarterback ever to play at four different schools when he starts for Rice this season.

14	Charlotte (2-10, 1-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Defensive Backfield

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Navy (October 14)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Rice (November 18)Bottom Line: The most interesting coaching hire in the country (besides Deion) likely belongs to the 49ers who brought in 63 year old Biff Poggi after he spent most of his career as an investment manager and high school coach before working as an analyst for Jim Harbaugh at Michigan.  Who knows if this hire will work out or not in the long run, but I am fairly certain that the 49ers will be pretty miserable in the short term.  They lose their starting quarterback and top four receivers on a passing offense which was the only unit for Charlotte to rank inside the top 105 nationally last season.