Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 18th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the two division champions but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the American Athletic Conference in 2024, which loses its defending champ in SMU, but picks up a second military academy to offset it.

1	Memphis (12-1, 8-0)– conference champion/CFP # 12 seed

Last Year’s Record: 10-3 (My 2023 prediction: 9-3)- a spot on prediction!

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Tulane (November 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Florida State (September 14)

Bottom Line: The Tigers have all of the characteristics of a team capable of earning the Group of Five automatic bid to this year’s first-ever 12 team College Football Playoff. (1) They are coming off a 10 win season. (2) They have 17 returning starters, including their stud quarterback, entire offensive line, and top two pass catchers. (3) They have a schedule that is challenging enough for them to have a good strength of record but not so difficult that they are destined to lose multiple games. Put it all together, and I am calling for Memphis to win the American and also become this year’s Group of Five participant in the College Football Playoff.

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2	UTSA (9-4, 6-2)- conference runner-up

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 9-4)- another perfect prognostication!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Texas State (September 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Rice (October 12)

Bottom Line: Head Coach Jeff Traylor is one of the most underrated coaches in all of the sport, as he has taken a program that was completely off the college football radar and made them into a perennial Group of Five powerhouse. This year, UTSA may be the most talented team from top to bottom in the American, but they will be starting an inexperienced, young quarterback this season, which is why I think Memphis will get the better of them in 2024.

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3	Rice (9-3, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 6-7 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UTSA (October 12)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at UAB (November 23)

Bottom Line: The Owls are a team on the rise currently, as Mike Bloomgren has the deepest roster this season that he has had during his seven year tenure in Houston. This squad returns its leading rusher, top six tacklers, and six of its top seven receivers from a year ago, while also adding an experienced starting quarterback from a league rival. Expect Rice to make some noise in 2024.

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4	Tulane (8-4, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 11-3 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas State (September 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Navy (November 6)

Bottom Line: The Green Wave are bound to take a step back in 2024 after losing their four year starting quarterback, top three receivers, and entire coaching staff from a squad that played in back-to-back AAC title games.

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4	East Carolina (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 2-10 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Florida Atlantic (November 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Navy (November 30)

Bottom Line: This will be a make or break season for Mike Houston and his staff in Greenville after last year’s disastrous 2-10 campaign. I think the Pirates bounce back to their winning ways in 2024 though, thanks to the addition of multiple Power 5 quarterbacks, the return of 14 starters, and a manageable schedule that features four winnable non-conference contests and does not include league favorite Memphis.

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6	South Florida (7-5, 5-3)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2023 prediction: 4-8)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Florida Atlantic (November 1)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Rice (November 30)

Bottom Line: Alex Golesh is one of the rising stars in the college football coaching ranks, and after an incredible year one turnaround that featured a dominant bowl win over Syracuse, he obviously has things going in the right direction for the Bulls. This team should be even better in 2023, but a brutal schedule that features games against Alabama, Miami, Tulane, and Memphis will limit how high South Florida ascends in 2024.

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7	Temple (6-6, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. North Texas (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Army (September 26)

Bottom Line: This may be a shocking projection given the fact that the Owls have not won more than three games in a season this decade. Nevertheless, Stan Drayton has quietly put together some decent recruiting classes and has also used the portal to bring in some former power 5 players. They also have the best special teams unit in the entire conference and have a manageable schedule that consists of three winnable non-conference games. Put it all together, and I think the Owls become a Cinderella bowl team in 2024.

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8	Army (5-7, 4-4)

Last Year’s Record: 6-6 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Rice (September 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Navy (December 14)

Bottom Line: Expect the Black Knights to start strong in 2024, but then falter down the stretch thanks to a overall lack of depth on the roster and a brutal late season schedule.

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9	North Texas (6-6, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Florida Atlantic (October 12)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Tulsa (September 28)

Bottom Line: A favorable schedule and an experienced Power 5 quarterback (TCU’s Chandler Morris is transferring in) enable the Mean Green to get back to a bowl game for the 4th time in the the past five seasons.

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9	UAB (6-6, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Rice (November 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Charlotte (November 30)

Bottom Line: The controversial hire of former NFL Quarterback Trent Dilfer (pictured above) looks pretty foolish after last year’s 4-8 campaign. Still, this team has enough offensive firepower coming back that they should be able to find their way back to a bowl game in 2024.

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11	Navy (5-7, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Tulane (November 16)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Temple (September 7)

Bottom Line: It is hard to believe this program has now suffered through four straight losing seasons after being so good for most of the 2000’s and 2010’s under Paul Johnson and Ken Niumatalolo. The issue Navy currently faces is that their non-conference slate always includes both Notre Dame and Air Force. This basically forces them to go 6-3 in the rest of their first 11 games in order to find a way into a bowl game because the Middies must get to six wins before their Army game on December 14th, since bowl selections are made the week prior. All in all, I think Brian Newberry’s team will be better this year than they were in 2023, but I don’t think that will be reflected in the Midshipmen’s overall record.

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11	Florida Atlantic (5-7, 3-5)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 6-6)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Army (September 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. FIU (September 14)

Bottom Line: The downfall of Tom Herman’s coaching career continues, as I am calling for his inexperienced Owls to fall short of a bowl bid for the fourth straight season in 2024.

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13	Charlotte (2-10, 1-7)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 2-10)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. UAB (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. James Madison (August 31)

Bottom Line: One of the strangest college football coaching hires of all-time in Biff Poggi will continue to backfire for the 49ers in 2024, thanks to an anemic offense.

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13	Tulsa (2-10, 1-7)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at North Texas (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Louisiana Tech (September 21)

Bottom Line: It is hard to believe the Golden Hurricane played in the American Athletic Conference title game just four short years ago. This program has been in steady decline since then, and while I think Kevin Wilson can eventually turn things around, it won’t be in 2024 due to their woeful defense.

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