Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 18th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all. The records below reflect each team’s predicted regular season overall record followed by their conference record.  These records include conference title games for the top two teams in the league but exclude bowl games which will be previewed later on in a separate column on this blog.  The teams marked in bold font are the ones predicted to gain bowl eligibility.  Without further ado, here are my predictions for the Big 12 in 2024, which has been changed by realignment more than any other league in the nation. In fact, exactly half of the Big 12’s current members joined this conference within the past 2 years.

1	Kansas (11-2, 7-2)– conference champion/CFP # 4 seed

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. TCU (September 28)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas State (October 26)

Bottom Line: In each of the past two seasons, I greatly underestimated how successful Lance Leipold’s teams would be in my 2022 and 2023 Big 12 prediction articles. Well, I am not making that mistake a third time. And that is because every season I like to pick at least one surprise major conference champion and/or playoff contender, and this season that pick is none other than the Kansas Jayhawks. And no, I am not talking about their basketball squad. I am, in fact, picking the Kansas Jayhawks football team to win the 2024 Big 12 title thanks to a tremendous comeback season from stud quarterback Jalon Daniels. This prediction doesn’t necessarily come from my overall view of the Jayhawks roster, as my computer ratings actually ranked them as the 9th best team in this 16 team league. However, when you break down their schedule it becomes increasingly evident that this team can win a lot of games in 2024. In fact, of the seven Big 12 teams I have rated below Kansas, the Jayhawks play six of those squads and the highest ranked team in that group (Iowa State) has to travel to Lawrence. Assuming Daniels stays healthy, the Jayhawks can and should win each of those matchups, meaning Kansas might only need to win one of its remaining three league games to make it to Dallas for the conference championship. I am predicting they do in fact win one of those (vs. TCU on Sept. 28th), which based on all of my projected results would get them into the Big 12 title game via tiebreaker. I then envision KU winning that final matchup over Oklahoma State based on the Pokes’ struggles defending the pass (OK State had the 123rd ranked pass defense in 2023). Put it all together, and I am calling for Kansas to end its 56 year conference championship drought in 2024 and subsequently enter the College Football Playoff as the # 4 overall seed.

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2	Oklahoma State (10-3, 7-2)– conference runner-up

Last Year’s Record: 10-4 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Utah (September 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at BYU (October 18)

Bottom Line: It is hard to believe how difficult it has been for Mike Gundy to find a good quarterback to lead this program. Alan Bowman returns for another season as the starter there, but his 15 touchdown to 14 interception ratio leaves much to be desired at that position. Instead, the Pokes will once again rely on stud running back Ollie Gordon to carry the offensive load, and while the defense may be experienced, they weren’t particularly good last year, ranking 122nd nationally. Gundy will put his guys in position to win a lot of games, but there are enough holes on this roster for me to call for them to fall just short of the Big 12 title once again in 2024.

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3	TCU (9-3, 7-2)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2023 prediction: 8-4)

Positional Strength: Linebacker

Positional Weakness: Quarterback

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Utah (October 19)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Baylor (November 2)

Bottom Line: The Frogs were destined for a rebuilding year in 2023 after their magical run to the national title game in 2022, but I don’t think many people expected them to be as bad as they were last season. TCU should be back to its winning ways in 2024 though, as the Frogs return their starting quarterback, top two receivers, and 13 other starters from last year’s squad. Sonny Dykes is just too good of a coach for this program to stay down for long.

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4	West Virginia (9-3, 6-3)

Last Year’s Record: 6-6 (My 2023 prediction: 9-4)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas (September 21)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona (October 26)

Bottom Line: Give credit to the WVU administration for staying patient with Neal Brown, despite the mediocre results he produced during his first four years in Morgantown. Last year that patience paid off as Brown led the Mountaineers to an impressive 9-4 record that included a dominant bowl win over North Carolina. That positive momentum should carry over to this season, as West Virginia returns eight offensive starters including its starting quarterback, top three rushers, four of its top five pass catchers, and its entire offensive line. Expect another successful season for this program.

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4	Utah (9-3, 6-3)

Last Year’s Record: 8-5 (My 2023 prediction: 10-2)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Iowa State (November 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Colorado (November 16)

Bottom Line: The Utes are a trendy pick to win the Big 12 this season and rightfully so given their recent success under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Rarely though, do you see a team come into a new conference and have massive success. There are a lot of tough venues that Utah has never played in that they will have to travel to in 2024, and it is unclear how Quarterback Cameron Rising will look after sitting out the entire 2023 season following a devastating tear to his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. Expect the Utes to be very good in 2024, but I think they will ultimately fall short of making it to the conference title game this season.

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6	Iowa State (8-4, 6-3)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Back

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Kansas State (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Kansas (November 9)

Bottom Line: Just when you though Matt Campbell’s program might be slipping a bit after their disappointing 2022 campaign, the Cyclones bounced back with a solid 7-6 season in 2023. Now, Iowa State returns 21 starters from that squad, including their starting quarterback , leading rusher, top four pass catchers, and top five tacklers. Still, the Cyclones schedule, which includes trips to Iowa City, Stillwater, Lawrence, and Morgantown, is too tough for them be considered a legitimate conference title contender this season.

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7	UCF (7-5, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 6-7 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Arizona (November 2)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Iowa State (October 19)

Bottom Line: It was an up and down transition year for Gus Malzahn’s squad in 2023, which was the program’s first season playing Power 5 football. This season, they get a potential upgrade at quarterback as Arkansas’ K.J. Jefferson joins the fold. Malzahn hasn’t been able to run his offense with a QB this talented since working with Cam Newton back in 2010. I still expect some growing pains though, as this team has new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a lot newcomers coming in to fill holes on the defense. The Knights should be improved in 2024, but they aren’t quite ready to enter the upper echelon of the Big 12 just yet.

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8	Arizona (8-4, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 10-3 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: at Kansas State (September 13)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at BYU (October 12)

Bottom Line: The Wildcats had a magical season in 2023, but their offseason was not as successful, as they lost their head coach Jeff Fish and several contributors on both sides of the ball. Nevertheless, Arizona held on to its most important player, star freshman quarterback Noah Fifita, who returns to lead what should be an extremely potent passing attack. On the other hand, the defense should take a step back, which is why expectations should be somewhat tempered this season in Tucson.

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9	Texas Tech (8-4, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 7-6 (My 2023 prediction: 9-3)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. West Virginia (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Iowa State (November 2)

Bottom Line: I picked the Red Raiders to be my Cinderella team in the 2023 edition of this article, but instead, Texas Tech had one of their typical seasons where they finish barely over .500. I do think this squad will be a little better than that in 2024, thanks to a favorable non-conference schedule and nine returning offensive starters including their starting quarterback Behren Morton and stud running back Tajh Brooks. However, the defense must improve mightily, with a lot of unproven talent, if they are to take a major step forward this season.

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9	Kansas State (7-5, 5-4)

Last Year’s Record: 9-4 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Running Back

Positional Weakness: Defensive Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. West Virginia (November 30)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Iowa State (November 2)

Bottom Line: Every year when I make these projections there are always teams which I typically overrate for whatever reason (Louisiana Tech, West Virginia, and Clemson to name a few) and there are teams on the other end of the spectrum that I perennially overlook and underrate. The Wildcats fall into the latter of these categories, as I feel like the Wildcats always outperform my preseason projections. I am once again picking K-State to finish lower than most experts are in 2024, but with the loss of Will Howard at quarterback and six other offensive starters, I don’t see K-State getting 9 or 10 wins like they have the past couple of seasons.

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11	Baylor (4-8, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 7-5)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Defensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. TCU (November 2)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Houston (November 23)

Bottom Line: Aside from his second year in Waco when the Bears won the Big 12 championship, Dave Aranda’s four year tenure at Baylor has been largely disappointing. He is going to try to reignite this program in 2024 by taking over defensive play-calling duties for the first time in Waco. This should lead to some improvement for a unit that ranked 110th nationally last year, and the offense should also improve with new coordinator Jake Spavital who fielded many high-powered offenses over the years at Cal and Texas State. The biggest issue though is that Baylor lacks talent on both their offensive and defensive lines, which is surprising for a squad that is coached by a tough-minded defensive guy like Aranda. Ultimately, I think Baylor will be an improved football team in 2024, but the real question is will they improve enough to keep their head coach around for a sixth season. And sadly, I think the answer to that question is no.

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12	BYU (5-7, 3-6)

Last Year’s Record: 5-7 (My 2023 prediction: 5-7)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Running Back

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Oklahoma State (October 18)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Arizona State (November 23)

Bottom Line: When I was in third grade, a meteorologist came to our school to talk to us about the weather, and he said something so simplistic that I never forgot it. He said the easiest way to figure out what the weather is going to be for a particular day is to see what the weather was the day before and assume it is going to be the same, unless a storm front of some sort is coming through. That is kind of how I feel about the BYU Cougars currently. I predicted them to be 5-7 last year and they finished exactly 5-7. Now, a year later they trade one mediocre Power 5 transfer quarterback (Kedon Slovis) for another (Gerry Bohannon) and have an otherwise similar roster as the year before. Sounds like another up and down 5-7 campaign to me.

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13	Colorado (3-9, 2-7)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 4-8)- I was dead-on in my projection for Deion’s group last season!

Positional Strength: Wide Receiver

Positional Weakness: Linebacker

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Utah (November 16)- the Buffs are going to stun someone in 2024. It might as well be the Utes who Colorado almost beat on the road last year.

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. North Dakota State (August 29)- a nightmare opening game for this squad

Bottom Line: The Buffs were probably the most intriguing 4-8 team in the history of college football last year, as the program hosted Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff, ESPN’s College Gameday, and was the subject of an Amazon docuseries, despite not winning very many football games. This year, all eyes will once again be on Deion’s squad, and while most people are expecting them to take a step forward in 2024, I am not so sure. First of all, when you are almost exclusively building your team through the transfer portal like the Buffs, it is hard to establish continuity or depth on your roster. Those are two things that Colorado is bound to struggle with again this season. Also, while they brought in some quality guys in the portal, the Buffs didn’t really bring in any game-changing talent, especially on the offensive line, where this team was horrendous in 2024. Colorado also has a deceptively hard schedule this season, as they open the year with an FCS superpower in North Dakota State that has six wins vs. FBS teams since 2010. They also have to play Oklahoma State, Utah, Kansas, and Kansas State in conference play, not to mention a road game against an improved Nebraska squad that will be looking for revenge from last year’s defeat. Deion needs to realize that when you command the national attention like he has, you are going to get everyone’s best shot and that is a tough spot for a team that lacks elite talent outside of about 4 players (the Sanders brothers, Jimmy Horn, and Travis Hunter) to be in.

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14	Cincinnati (4-8, 2-7)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 3-9)

Positional Strength: Offensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Pittsburgh (September 7)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Miami-OH (September 14)- the Redhawks beat the Bearcats last season on the road so they should be able to repeat the feat at home

Bottom Line: Everyone knew the Bearcats were going to have a rough year in 2023, as they lost nearly their entire team following the departure of former coach Luke Fickell. They are more experienced entering 2024, but they still have some glaring holes on the roster. Cincinnati is unproven at quarterback and have to rebuild a defense that ranked 93rd nationally last season with a new defensive coordinator and without their top four tacklers from 2023. As a result, I believe Satterfield will have to wait a little longer before having his breakthrough season in Cincy.

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15	Arizona State (2-10, 1-8)

Last Year’s Record: 3-9 (My 2023 prediction: 3-9)

Positional Strength: Defensive Line

Positional Weakness: Wide Receiver

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. BYU (November 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: at Texas State (September 7)

Bottom Line: Herm Edwards left this program in a disastrous state of affairs, and it is going to take more than a year or two for the youngest coach in FBS to rebuild it. This season, the Sun Devils, defense should be improved, but the offensive is going to struggle with a freshman quarterback and six other new starters as well an new offensive coordinator that will be installing new schemes. The Sun Devils’ schedule is also treacherous, as most all of their winnable conference games are on the road and the non-conference slate features two games against 2023 bowl champions and another versus an SEC squad. Put it all together and I am calling for another long season in Tempe.

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15	Houston (2-10, 1-8)

Last Year’s Record: 4-8 (My 2023 prediction: 3-9)

Positional Strength: Quarterback

Positional Weakness: Offensive Line

Biggest Predicted Win of the Year: vs. Baylor (November 23)

Worst Predicted Loss of the Year: vs. Rice (September 14)- I think the Owls will win the battle of Houston for the second consecutive season!

Bottom Line: New coach Willie Fritz has done transformational work for the Mules (Central Missouri), Bearkats (Sam Houston), and Green Wave (Tulane), but now he takes on his biggest reclamation project yet at the ripe old age of 64. Keep in mind, this squad was lucky to be 4-8 last year, as they were a play or two away from finishing 1-11 in their first year competing in the Big 12. And while their passing attack lead by veteran QB Donovan Smith should be functional in 2024, Houston’s defense, which ranked 112th nationally last season and only returns two of its top 10 tacklers, will not be. This could be a very long year for the Cougars.

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