Every summer since 2007 I have created an intricate set of college football predictions for each upcoming season.  This year is no exception, as I will be using my blog over the next few hours to publish my 18th annual college football preview guide which will contain 19 entries in all.  Without further ado, here are the teams I am predicting to surprise this season.  These teams are ordered in the relative disparity between my picks and the experts average while also taking into account the significance of each pick.

The Kansas Jayhawks are my # 1 surprise team of 2024, as I am picking them to be surprise winners of the Big 12 this season! This prediction doesn’t necessarily come from my overall view of the Jayhawks roster, as my computer ratings actually ranked them as the 9th best team in this 16 team league. However, when you break down their schedule it becomes increasingly evident that this team can win a lot of games in 2024. In fact, of the seven Big 12 teams I have rated below Kansas, the Jayhawks play six of those squads and the highest ranked team in that group (Iowa State) has to travel to Lawrence. Assuming Daniels stays healthy, the Jayhawks can and should win each of those matchups, meaning Kansas might only need to win one of its remaining three league games to make it to Dallas for the conference championship. I am predicting they do in fact win one of those (vs. TCU on Sept. 28th), which based on all of my projected results would get them into the Big 12 title game via tiebreaker. I then envision KU winning that final matchup over Oklahoma State based on the Pokes’ struggles defending the pass (OK State had the 123rd ranked pass defense in 2023). Put it all together, and I am calling for Kansas to end its 56 year conference championship drought in 2024 and subsequently enter the College Football Playoff as the # 4 overall seed.