Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 12 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the fifth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but sometimes a 6-6 record won’t be enough to a get bid from a non-BCS conference.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 25 teams on the list with 11 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 14 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 76 bowl eligible teams for 2013 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 70 bowl slots to be filled by 125 Division 1-A teams.

 

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (11):

North Carolina– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Old Dominion, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% (previous odds: 49%)

Rutgers– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, at UConn, vs. USF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91% (previous odds: 95%)

Colorado State– Record: 6-5 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: at Utah State, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74% (previous odds: 51%)

Syracuse– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pitt, vs. BC; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% (previous odds: 69%)

UTSA– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% (previous odds: 61%)

UNLV– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% (previous odds: 58%)

Central Michigan– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, vs. UMass, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% (previous odds: 47%)

UL-Monroe– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% (previous odds: 54%)

Troy– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 55%)

Florida Atlantic– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, vs. FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 48%)

San Jose State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Navy, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% (previous odds: 70%)

 

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (14):

Pittsburgh– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Syracuse, vs. Miami (FL); Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49% (previous odds: 65%)

Washington State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 21%)

Tennessee– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Vandy, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46% (previous odds: 46%)

Utah– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, vs. Colorado; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 45%)

Mississippi State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 40%)

SMU– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at USF, at Houston, vs. UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24% (previous odds: 15%)

Wake Forest– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Duke, at Vandy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23% (previous odds: 23%)

Northwestern– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan State, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% (previous odds: 44%)

Louisiana Tech– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 31%)

Wyoming– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Hawaii, at Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19% (previous odds: 20%)

Florida– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, vs. FSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% (previous odd: 33%)

South Alabama– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe, at Georgia State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16% (previous odds: 37%)

Memphis– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule:, at Louisville, vs. Temple, at UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% (previous odds: 4%)

Indiana– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3% (previous odds: 5%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (58):  UCF, Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Duke, Miami (FL), Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Michigan State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, East Carolina, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, Rice, Tulane, Notre Dame, Brigham Young, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Ohio, Ball State, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Fresno State, Utah State, Boise State, Stanford, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, Southern California, Arizona, Missouri, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A & M, LSU, Ole Miss, UL-Lafayette, Texas State, Western Kentucky, Vanderbilt (previous odds: 90%), Boston College (previous odds: 85%), Kansas State (previous odds: 80%), Navy (previous odds: 82%), Maryland (previous odds: 86%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 75%), San Diego State (previous odds: 77%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (29):  Penn State*, UConn, Temple, Virginia, Kansas, Iowa State, Purdue, UAB, FIU, Southern Miss, Tulsa, UTEP, Army, Idaho, New Mexico State, Akron, UMass, Kent State, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Nevada, Hawaii, Air Force, California, Colorado, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia State, West Virginia (previous odds: 59%), Illinois (previous odds: 2%), NC State (previous odds: 22%), TCU (previous odds: 16%), New Mexico (previous odds: 1%), South Florida (previous odds: 1%)

 

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 65

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 11 (76)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 35

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 14 (49)

 

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