Bowl Bubble Watch- Inaugural 2016 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the eighth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but as we saw last year with Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose States, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 58 teams on the list with 25 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 33 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 74 bowl eligible teams for 2016, so expect another group of 5-7 teams to garner bowl berths in 2016 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled.  This list is updated through all games played on November 10th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (25):

Brigham Young– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule:vs. Southern Utah, vs. UMass, vs. Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99%

Kentucky– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, vs. Austin Peay, at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98%

South Carolina– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. Western Carolina, at Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97%

Army– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Notre Dame, vs. Morgan State, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96%

Georgia– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Auburn, vs. UL-Lafayette, vs. Georgia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

Kansas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Baylor, vs. Kansas, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91%

Miami-FL– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, at NC State, vs. Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90%

Texas– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. West Virginia, at Kansas, vs. TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 89%

Maryland– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio State, at Nebraska, vs. Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 86%

Pittsburgh– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Clemson, vs. Duke, vs. Syracuse; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85%

Arkansas State– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, at Troy, at UL-Lafayette, at Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80%

Idaho– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Texas State, vs. South Alabama, vs. Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77%

UCF– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Cincinnati, vs. Tulsa, at South Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75%

Indiana– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Penn State, at Michigan, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%

Iowa Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Michigan, at Illinois, vs. Nebraska; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67%

Northwestern- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Purdue, at Minnesota, vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66%

TCU– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs.Oklahoma State, at Texas, vs. Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 65%)

UTSA– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana Tech, at Texas A & M, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64%

Southern Miss– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Old Dominion, at North Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

LSU– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, vs. Florida, at Texas A & M; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

Georgia Tech– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule:at Virginia Tech, vs. Virginia, at Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57%

Ole Miss– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Texas A & M, at Vanderbilt, vs. Mississippi State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Colorado State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Air Force, vs. New Mexico, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

Arizona State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, at Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 53%)

Miami-OH– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Buffalo, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (33):

Central Michigan– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio, at Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 48%)

Georgia Southern– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 44%)

Boston College– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Florida State, vs. UConn, at Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

California– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, vs. Stanford, vs. UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41%

Texas Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule:at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

Mississippi State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Alabama, vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39%

NC State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Syracuse, vs. Miami-FL, at North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Vanderbilt– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, vs. Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37%

UTEP– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida Atlantic, at Rice, vs. North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36%

Charlotte– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Rice, vs. Middle Tennessee, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

North Texas Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Western Kentucky, vs. Southern Miss, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34%

South Alabama (must get to 7 wins)- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Presbyterian, at Idaho, vs. New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 33%)

Akron– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 33%)

UL-Lafayette Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia, vs. Arkansas State, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31% (previous odds: 31%)

Syracuse– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. NC State, vs. Florida State, at Pitt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%

Oregon– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Stanford, at Utah, at Oregon State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29%

Hawaii- Record: 4-6 (must get to 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: vs. Boise State, at Fresno State, vs. UMass; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28%

UCLA– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oregon State, vs. Southern Cal, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 26%

Utah State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico, at Nevada, at Brigham Young; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22%

SMU– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at East Carolina, vs. South Florida, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

Cincinnati– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UCF, vs. Memphis, at Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

Notre Dame- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Army, vs. Virginia Tech, at Southern Cal; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%

Duke– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Pittsburgh, at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13% (previous odds: 4%)

East Carolina– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. SMU, vs. Navy, at Temple; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%

Nevada Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Diego State, vs. Utah State, at UNLV; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11%

UNLV– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wyoming, at Boise State, vs. Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

Ball State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% (previous odds: 9%)

Purdue– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northwestern, vs. Wisconsin, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

UL-Monroe– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, at Appalachian State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

Illinois– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, vs. Iowa, at Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Tulane– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, vs. Temple, at UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

New Mexico State– Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas State, vs. Texas State, vs. Appalachian State, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Texas State– Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Idaho, at New Mexico State, vs. Troy, vs. Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Already Bowl Eligible (49):  Temple, South Florida, Tulsa, Navy, Houston, Memphis, Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Western Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, Utah, Southern Cal, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A & M, Arkansas, Appalachian State, Troy

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (21):  UConn, Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas, Michigan State, Rutgers, Florida International, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, Rice, UMass, Kent State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia State

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 49

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 25 (74)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 33

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 21 (54)

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