Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 11 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the eighth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances of most major conference teams, but as we saw last year with Nebraska, Minnesota, and San Jose States, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 48 teams on the list with 15 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 23 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 73 bowl eligible teams for 2016 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 80 bowl slots to be filled, so be prepared for another slew of 5-7 squads to attain bowl bids in 2016.  This list is updated through all games played on November 12th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (15):

Kentucky– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Austin Peay, at Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97% (previous odds: 98%)

South Carolina– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Western Carolina, at Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95% (previous odds: 97%)

Army– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Morgan State, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94% (previous odds: 96%)

Kansas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Baylor, vs. Kansas, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91% (previous odds: 91%)

Arkansas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Troy, at UL-Lafayette, at Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85% (previous odds: 80%)

Maryland– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Nebraska, vs. Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84% (previous odds: 86%)

Texas– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas, vs. TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 83% (previous odds: 89%)

Northwestern- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Minnesota, vs. Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81% (previous odds: 66%)

Ole Miss– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule:at Vanderbilt, vs. Mississippi State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75% (previous odds: 56%)

Indiana– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% (previous odds: 70%)

TCU– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs.Oklahoma State, at Texas, vs. Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% (previous odds: 65%)

Miami-OH– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% (previous odds: 52%)

UTSA– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Texas A & M, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% (previous odds: 64%)

Arizona State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Washington, at Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% (previous odds: 53%)

Southern Miss– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at North Texas, vs. Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% (previous odds: 60%)

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (23):

Central Michigan– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio, at Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% (previous odds: 48%)

Colorado State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% (previous odds: 54%)

Georgia Southern– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44% (previous odds: 44%)

NC State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, at North Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43% (previous odds: 38%)

Boston College– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UConn, at Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% (previous odds: 42%)

Mississippi State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas, at Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% (previous odds: 39%)

Texas Tech– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% (previous odds: 40%)

California– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Stanford, vs. UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% (previous odds: 41%)

SMU– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Florida, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% (previous odds: 20%)

South Alabama (must get to 7 wins)- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Presbyterian, at Idaho, vs. New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% (previous odds: 33%)

North Texas Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Miss, at UTEP; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% (previous odds: 34%)

Akron– Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% (previous odds: 33%)

UL-Lafayette Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia, vs. Arkansas State, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31% (previous odds: 31%)

UCLA– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Cal, at California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 28% (previous odds: 26%)

Notre Dame- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Virginia Tech, at Southern Cal; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23% (previous odds: 15%)

UNLV– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, vs. Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16%  (previous odds: 10%)

Vanderbilt– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 15%  (previous odds: 37%)

Charlotte– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Middle Tennessee, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14% (previous odds: 35%)

Duke– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Pittsburgh, at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13% (previous odds: 4%)

UL-Monroe– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12% (previous odds: 6%)

Ball State– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% (previous odds: 9%)

Cincinnati- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% (previous odds: 18%)

Syracuse– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida State, at Pitt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7% (previous odds: 30%)

Already Bowl Eligible (58):  Temple, South Florida, Tulsa, Navy, Houston, Memphis, Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Western Kentucky, Old Dominion, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Ohio, Western Michigan, Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Wyoming, Boise State, New Mexico, Air Force, San Diego State, Washington, Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, Utah, Southern Cal, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A & M, Arkansas, Appalachian State, Troy, UCF (previous odds: 75%), Miami-FL (previous odds: 90%), Brigham Young (previous odds: 99%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 57%), Georgia (previous odds: 92%), Idaho (previous odds: 77%), Pittsburgh (previous odds: 84%), LSU (previous odds: 59%), Iowa (previous odds: 67%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (32):  UConn, Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas, Michigan State, Rutgers, Florida International, Marshall, Florida Atlantic, Rice, UMass, Kent State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, San Jose State, Fresno State, Oregon State, Arizona, Missouri, Georgia State, Purdue (previous odds: 7%), East Carolina (previous odds: 12%), New Mexico State (previous odds: 2%), Illinois, (previous odds: 4%), Tulane (previous odds: 3%), Texas State (previous odds: 1%), Oregon (previous odds: 29%), UTEP (previous odds: 36%), Hawaii (previous odds: 28%), Utah State (previous odds: 22%), Nevada (previous odds: 11%)

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 58

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 15 (73)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 32

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 23 (55)

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