Bowl Bubble Watch- Week 13 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the ninth-straight year, I will be publishing weekly November columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw last year with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 if all spots aren’t filled based on their APR.  The teams are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 3 teams on the list with 2 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 1 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 81 bowl eligible teams for 2017 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled.  This list is updated through all games played on November 25th.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (2):

Florida State- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90% (previous odds: N/A, N/A, N/A, 45%)

New Mexico State- Record: 5-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% (previous odds: 55.5%, 60%, 60%, 54%)

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (1):

UL-Lafayette- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% (previous odds: 29%, 47%, 45%, 62%)

 

Already Bowl Eligible (79):  UCF, South Florida, Memphis, SMU, Clemson, NC State, Miami-FL, Virginia Tech, Iowa State, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Marshall, Notre Dame, Army, Ohio, Toledo, Northern Illinois, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State, Southern California, Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Troy, Florida Atlantic (previous odds: 96%), Houston (previous odds: 99%), North Texas (previous odds: 97%), UAB (previous odds: 95%), Northwestern (previous odds: 91%), West Virginia (previous odds: 68%), Iowa (previous odds: 65%), FIU (previous odds: 88%), Virginia (previous odds: 49%), Wyoming (previous odds: 93%), Fresno State (previous odds: 92%), Western Michigan (previous odds: 98.5%, 91%), Central Michigan (previous odds: 49.5%, 75%), Appalachian State (previous odds: 99.5%, 95%), Wake Forest (previous odds: 66%, 64%), Southern Miss (previous odds: 97.5%, 97%), Texas A & M (previous odds: 98%, 96%), Georgia State (previous odds: 64%, 78%), Louisville (previous odds: 73%, 73%), Navy (previous odds: 78%, 70%), Akron (previous odds: 94%, 94%, 85%), Western Kentucky (previous odds: 74%, 67%, 61%), Texas (previous odds: 69%, 66%, 68%), Utah State (previous odds: 45%, 62%, 62%), Arkansas State (previous odds: 99.9%, 99.9%, 90%), Kansas State (previous odds: 48%, 50.5%, 48%), Arizona State (previous odds: 61%, 71%, 70%), UTSA (previous odds: 60%, 52%, 47%), Boston College (previous odds: 76%, 76%, 72%), Missouri (previous odds: 41%, 53%, 57%), Oregon  (previous odds: 77%, 74%, 74%), Buffalo (previous odds: 15%, 15%, 33%, 40%), Texas Tech (previous odds: 54%, 40%, 38%, 37%), UCLA (previous odds: 56%, 51%, 56%, 57%), Purdue (previous odds: 30%, 35%, 34%, 53%), Duke (previous odds: 42%, 42%, 30%, 42%), Middle Tennessee (previous odds: 57%, 65%, 69%, 59%), Temple (previous odds: 28%, 41.5%, 52%, 51%), Louisiana Tech (previous odds: 62%, 55%, 54%, 55%), Utah (previous odds: 55%, 63%, 59%, 61%)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (48):  Tulsa, North Carolina, Kansas, Baylor, Charlotte, Rice, UTEP, Brigham Young, Bowling Green, Nevada, San Jose State, Oregon State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, Ole Miss, Kent State (previous odds: 1%), Ball State (previous odds: 1.5%), UMass (previous odds: 0.6%), East Carolina (previous odds: 0.2%), Illinois (previous odds: 0.1%), Texas State (previous odds: 0.1%), Eastern Michigan (previous odds: 32%, 36%), Cincinnati (previous odds: 19%, 35.5%), UConn  (previous odds: 4%, 1%), Florida (previous odds: 50.5%, 38%), Hawaii (previous odds: 12%, 10%), New Mexico (previous odds: 6%, 0.5%), Miami-OH (previous odds: 35%, 33%, 51%), Arkansas  (previous odds: 33%, 33.5%, 29%), Rutgers (previous odds: 5%, 8%, 7%), South Alabama (previous odds: 36%, 18%, 46.5%), Syracuse  (previous odds: 52%, 49%, 36%), Nebraska (previous odds: 53%, 39%, 10%), Maryland (previous odds: 3%, 0.7%, 0.5%), Idaho (previous odds: 37%, 32%, 32%), Vanderbilt (previous odds: 39%, 41%, 38%), Tennessee (previous odds: 47%, 47.5%, 35%), Air Force (previous odds: 63%, 48%, 27%),  Pittsburgh (previous odds: 34%, 34%, 19%), California (previous odds: 43%, 44%, 44%, 43%), Georgia Tech (previous odds: 67%, 43%, 58%, 22%), Indiana (previous odds: 38%, 37%, 46%, 47%), Tulane (previous odds: 44%, 25%, 28%, 38%), Old Dominion (previous odds: 18%, 22%, 37%, 41%), Minnesota (previous odds: 40%, 34.5%, 43%, 24%), UL-Monroe (previous odds: 0.3%, 0.4%, 0.4%, 0.3%), UNLV (previous odds: 51%, 59%, 42%, 52%), Colorado (previous odds: 46%, 39.5%, 39%, 39%)   

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 79

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 2 (81)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 48

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 1 (49)

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