Bowl Bubble Watch- Inaugural 2019 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the eleventh-straight season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible. Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid. They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we saw three years ago with Mississippi State and North Texas, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots are not filled.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible. As of now, there are 72 teams on the list with 38 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 34 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2019 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 78 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting two teams to become bowl eligible and not receive a bid.  This list is updated through all games played on November 2nd.  

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (38):

Brigham Young- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Liberty, vs. Idaho State, at UMass, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99% 

Temple- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at USF, vs. Tulane, at Cincinnati, vs. UConn; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% 

Michigan State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Illinois, at Michigan, at Rutgers, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91% 

Miami-FL- Record: 5-4; vs. Louisville, at FIU, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 86% 

Iowa State- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma, vs. Texas, vs. Kansas, at Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84% 

Toledo- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, vs. Northern Illinois, at Buffalo, at Central Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 83% 

Buffalo- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Kent State, vs. Toledo, vs. Bowling Green; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 82% 

Washington– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon State, at Colorado, vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81.5% 

Ohio- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-OH, vs. Western Michigan, at Bowling Green, at Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81% 

Texas- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas State, at Iowa State, at Baylor, vs. Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 80% 

Arkansas State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Coastal Carolina, vs. Georgia Southern, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79.5% 

Miami-OH- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio, vs. Bowling Green, vs. Akron, at Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79% 

Southern Miss- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. UAB, at UTSA, vs. Western Kentucky, at Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% 

Virginia Tech- Record: 5-3; vs. Wake Forest, at Georgia Tech, vs. Pitt, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 77% 

Louisville- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-FL, at NC State, vs. Syracuse, at Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76% 

Western Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ball State, at Ohio, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74% 

Fresno State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah State, at San Diego State, vs. Nevada, at San Jose State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70% 

Georgia Southern– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: at Troy, vs. UL-Monroe, at Arkansas State, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68% 

Washington State– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at California, vs. Stanford, vs. Oregon State, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% 

Arizona State– Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Cal, at Oregon State, vs. Oregon, vs. Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% 

Southern Cal– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Arizona State, at California, vs. UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65% 

Liberty- Record: 6-3 (needs 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: at Brigham Young, at Virginia, vs. New Mexico State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% 

Hawaii (needs 7 wins)- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Jose State, at UNLV, vs. San Diego State, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% 

Kentucky– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, at Vandy, vs. UT-Martin, vs. Louisville; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% 

Western Kentucky- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Arkansas, at Southern Miss, vs. Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60% 

Nevada– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at San Diego State, at Fresno State, vs. UNLV; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59% 

Boston College- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida St, at Notre Dame, at Pitt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% 

Illinois- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan State, at Iowa, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% 

Mississippi State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Alabama, vs. Abilene Christian, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56% 

North Carolina- Record: 4-5; at Pitt, vs. Mercer, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55% 

Charlotte- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at UTEP, vs. Marshall, at Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54.5% 

TCU- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Baylor, at Texas Tech, at Oklahoma, vs. West Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54% 

Duke- Record: 4-4; vs. Notre Dame, vs. Syracuse, at Wake Forest, vs. Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53% 

Stanford– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Colorado, at Washington State, vs. California, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52.5% 

North Texas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana Tech, at Rice, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52% 

Tennessee– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kentucky, at Missouri, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51.5% 

Utah State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Fresno State. vs. Wyoming, vs. Boise State, at New Mexico; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51% 

Eastern Michigan- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Akron, at Northern Illinois, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 50.5% 

——————————————————————————————

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (34):

Florida State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at BC, vs. Alabama State, at Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48% 

NC State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Clemson, vs. Louisville, at Georgia Tech, vs. UNC; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47% 

Middle Tennessee- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Rice, vs. Old Dominion, at Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45% 

Army- Record: 3-6 (need 7 wins); Remaining Schedule: vs. UMass, vs. VMI, at Hawaii, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

Coastal Carolina– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, at Ark. State, at UL-Monroe, vs. Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42% 

California– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington State, vs. Southern Cal, at Stanford, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 41% 

Texas Tech- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. TCU, vs. Kansas State, at Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40% 

Nebraska- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Maryland, vs. Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 39% 

Ball State- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: at Western Michigan, vs. Central Michigan, at Kent State, vs. Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 37% 

West Virginia- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas Tech, at Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma State, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 36% 

UCLA– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Utah, at Southern Cal, vs. California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35.5%

FIU- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at FAU, vs. Miami-FL, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35% 

Oregon State– Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Washington, vs. Arizona State, at Washington State, at Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 34% 

San Jose State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii, at UNLV, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 33% 

South Carolina– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Appalachian State, at Texas A & M, vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32% 

Kent State- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, vs. Buffalo, vs. Ball State, at Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31%

South Florida- Record: 4-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Memphis, at UCF; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30% 

UL-Monroe- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia State, at Georgia Southern, vs. Coastal Carolina, at UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 29% 

Arizona– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, vs. Utah, at Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21% 

Syracuse- Record: 3-6; at Duke, at Louisville, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20% 

Troy– Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Texas State, at UL-Lafayette, vs. Appalachian State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18% 

Ole Miss– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. New Mexico State, vs. LSU, at Mississippi State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16% 

Colorado– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Stanford, vs. Washington, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10% 

Houston- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Memphis, at Tulsa, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9% 

Northern Illinois- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Toledo, vs. Eastern Michigan, vs. Western Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8% 

Colorado State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Air Force, at Wyoming, vs. Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7% 

Purdue- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Northwestern, at Wisconsin, vs. Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6% 

UTSA- Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Old Dominion, vs. Southern Miss, vs. Florida Atlantic, at Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5% 

Kansas- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma State, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4% 

Bowling Green- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, vs. Ohio, at Buffalo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3% 

Vanderbilt– Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: at Florida, vs. Kentucky, vs. ETSU, at Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2% 

Texas State- Record: 2-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Alabama, vs. Troy, at App. State, at Coastal Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1.5% 

Georgia Tech- Record: 2-6; at Virginia, vs. Virginia Tech, vs. NC State, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Maryland- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, vs. Nebraska, at Michigan State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.5% 

Already Bowl Eligible (42):  (1)Clemson, (2) Pittsburgh, (3) Virginia, (4) Wake Forest, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Memphis, (7) Navy, (8) SMU, (9) Tulane, (10) UCF, (11) Baylor, (12) Kansas State, (13) Oklahoma, (14) Oklahoma State, (15) Indiana, (16) Iowa, (17) Michigan, (18) Minnesota, (19) Ohio State, (20) Penn State, (21) Wisconsin, (22) Florida Atlantic, (23) Louisiana Tech, (24) Marshall, (25) UAB, (26) Central Michigan, (27) Air Force, (28) Boise State, (29) San Diego State, (30) Wyoming, (31) Oregon, (32) Utah, (33) Alabama, (34) Auburn, (35) Georgia, (36) Florida, (37) LSU, (38) Texas A & M, (39) Appalachian State, (40) Georgia State, (41) UL-Lafayette, (42) Notre Dame

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (16):  (1) UConn, (2) East Carolina, (3) Tulsa, (4) Northwestern, (5) Rutgers, (6) Old Dominion, (7) Rice, (8) UTEP, (9) Akron, (10) New Mexico, (11) UNLV, (12) Arkansas, (13) Missouri, (14) South Alabama, (15) New Mexico State, (16) UMass

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 42

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 38 (80)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 16

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 34 (50)

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