Bowl Bubble Watch- Inaugural 2021 Edition

The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the twelfth season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and new odds will be provided for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid.  They do not represent the odds a team has for actually receiving a bid.  This discrepancy likely won’t affect the bowl chances for most teams, but as we have seen in years past, sometimes a squad can fall short of bowl eligibility and still garner a bowl bid at 5-7 based on APR, if all spots are not filled.  All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 62 teams on the list with 30 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 32 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 79 bowl eligible teams for 2021 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting there to be 3 bowl bids which would have to be filled by teams with a losing record.  This list is updated through all games played on November 6th. 

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (30):

Army- Record: 5-3; Remaining Schedule: vs. Bucknell, vs. UMass, at Liberty, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99.5% 

Mississippi State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, vs. Tennessee State, vs. Ole Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99% 

North Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Pittsburgh, vs. Wofford, at NC State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 98% 

Tennessee- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia, vs. South Alabama, vs. Vanderbilt; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 97% 

Boise State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wyoming, vs. New Mexico, at San Diego State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 96% 

Western Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Akron, at Eastern Michigan, at Northern Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94% 

UCLA- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Colorado, at Southern Cal, vs. California; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92% 

Memphis- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. East Carolina, at Houston, vs. Tulane; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 91% 

Toledo- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Bowling Green, at Ohio, vs. Akron; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 90% 

Florida Atlantic- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Old Dominion, at Western Kentucky, vs. Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 87% 

Kent State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Central Michigan, at Akron, vs. Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85%

Florida- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Samford, at Missouri, vs. Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 83%

Washington State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon, vs. Arizona, at Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 81%

Miami-FL- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, at Duke; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 79% 

Texas- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas, at West Virginia, va. Kansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 78% 

Charlotte- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Louisiana Tech, vs. Marshall, at Old Dominion; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 70%

Western Kentucky- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Rice, vs. Florida Atlantic, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68%

Wyoming- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Boise State, at Utah State, vs. Hawaii; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 67% 

Central Michigan- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, at Ball State, vs. Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66% 

Middle Tennessee- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida International, vs. Old Dominion, at Florida Atlantic; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 64% 

Ball State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Northern Illinois, vs. Central Michigan, vs. Buffalo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 63% 

Boston College- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, vs. Florida State, vs. Wake Forest; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62% 

Georgia State- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Coastal Carolina, vs. Arkansas State, vs. Troy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61% 

Miami-OH- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Buffalo, vs. Bowling Green, at Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Washington- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State, at Colorado, vs. Washington State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 59%

Oregon State- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Stanford, vs. Arizona State, at Oregon; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58% 

East Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Memphis, at Navy, vs. Cincinnati; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 57% 

Louisville- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Syracuse, at Duke, vs. Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

Maryland- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan State, vs. Michigan, at Rutgers; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

Southern Cal- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at California, vs. UCLA, vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

——————————————————————————————

Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (32):

Syracuse- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Louisville, at NC State, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

San Jose State- Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah State, vs. Fresno State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

West Virginia- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Kansas State, vs. Texas, at Kansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

Virginia Tech- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Duke, at Miami-FL, at Virginia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 45%

LSU- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas, vs. UL-Monroe, vs. Texas A & M; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Troy- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Lafayette, vs. Appalachian State, at Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 43%

South Carolina- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Missouri, vs. Auburn, vs. Clemson; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 42%

Rutgers- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Indiana, at Penn State, vs. Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

Texas Tech- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma State, at Baylor; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Buffalo- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Miami-OH, vs. Northern Illinois, at Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 31%

Colorado State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Air Force, at Hawaii, vs. Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 27%

Rice- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Western Kentucky, at UTEP, vs. Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 25%

Hawaii- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at UNLV, vs. Colorado State, at Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24%

TCU- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma State, vs. Kansas, at Iowa State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22%

Missouri- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Carolina, vs. Florida, at Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21%

Tulsa- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Tulane, vs. Temple, at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

Bowling Green- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Toledo, at Miami-OH, vs. Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16%

Illinois- Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, vs. Northwestern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14%

Stanford- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon State, vs. California, vs. Notre Dame; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 12%

Old Dominion- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Florida Atlantic, at Middle Tennessee, vs. Charlotte; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11%

California- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Southern Cal, at Stanford, at UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

North Texas- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. UTEP, at FIU, vs. UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9%

Florida State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, at Boston College, vs. Florida; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8%

South Alabama- Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Appalachian State, at Tennessee, vs. Coastal Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 7%

Colorado- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, vs. Washington, at Utah; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

UL-Monroe- Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arkansas State, at LSU, at UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Duke- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia Tech, vs. Louisville, vs. Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Northwestern- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Wisconsin, vs. Purdue, at Illinois; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Temple- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Houston, at Tulsa, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Texas State- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Coastal Carolina, at Arkansas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1.5%

Georgia Tech- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Boston College, at Notre Dame, vs. Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

New Mexico- Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Fresno State, at Boise State, vs. Utah State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.5%

———————————————————————-

Already Bowl Eligible (49): (1) Clemson, (2) NC State, (3) Pittsburgh, (4) Virginia, (5) Wake Forest, (6) Cincinnati, (7) Houston, (8) SMU, (9), UCF, (10) Iowa, (11) Michigan, (12) Michigan State, (13) Minnesota, (14) Ohio State, (15) Penn State, (16) Purdue, (17) Wisconsin, (18) Baylor, (19) Iowa State, (20) Kansas State, (21) Oklahoma, (22) Oklahoma State, (23) Marshall, (24) UAB, (25) UTEP, (26) UTSA, (27) Eastern Michigan, (28) Northern Illinois, (29) Air Force, (30) Fresno State, (31) Nevada, (32) San Diego State, (33) Utah State, (34) Arizona State, (35) Oregon, (36) Utah, (37) Alabama, (38) Arkansas, (39) Auburn, (40) Georgia, (41) Kentucky, (42) Ole Miss, (43) Texas A &M, (44) Appalachian State, (45) Coastal Carolina, (46) UL-Lafayettte, (47) BYU, (48) Liberty, (49) Notre Dame

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (19):  (1) Navy, (2) South Florida, (3) Tulane, (4) Indiana, (5) Nebraska, (6) Kansas, (7) FIU, (8) Louisiana Tech, (9) Southern Miss, (10) Akron, (11) Ohio, (12) UNLV, (13) Arizona, (14) Vanderbilt, (15) Arkansas State, (16) Georgia Southern, (17) New Mexico State (18) UConn, (19) UMass

———————————————————————-

Current Stats:

Already Bowl Eligible: 49

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 30 (79)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 19

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 32 (51)

2021-22 College Football Bowl Season Betting Guide | Legally Bet On Bowl  Games

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s