The most comprehensive analysis of the college football bowl bubble is back!  For the thirteenth consecutive season, I will be publishing weekly late season columns analyzing which teams will get bowl bids and which will not.  Below, I have written a report for every team that has yet to be declared either bowl eligible or ineligible.  Each week this list will be updated and I will provide new odds for each team.  Please note that these odds only represent the chances that a particular team will get enough wins to be eligible to receive a bowl bid, not necessarily a team’s off of actually being invited to a bowl game.  That is because some years there are more bowl eligible teams than bowl bids and several bowl eligible teams don’t get to go bowling.  Other years, there are not enough bowl eligible teams to fill every bowl game, so 5-7 teams are invited to bowl games based on their APR.  Then, we have years like last year where it works out perfectly and there is an equivalent number of bowl bids as bowl eligible teams.   

All of the teams below are ordered in descending order of likelihood that they will become bowl eligible.  As of now, there are 63 teams on the list with 27 predicted to attain bowl eligibility and 36 predicted to fall short.  As of now, I’m projecting there to be 80 bowl eligible teams for 2022 (see full stats at the bottom of this entry).  Keep in mind that there are a total of 82 bowl slots to be filled, so at this point, I am predicting there to be 2 bowl bids which would have to be filled by teams with a 5-7 record.  This list is updated through all games played on November 8th.

Good Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams closing in on bowl bids (27):

Brigham Young– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Utah Tech, at Stanford; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 99.9%

Houston– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Temple, at East Carolina, vs. Tulsa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 95%

Fresno State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at UNLV, at Nevada, vs. Wyoming; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 94%

Buffalo– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Central Michigan, vs. Akron, vs. Kent State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 93%

San Diego State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. San Jose State, at New Mexico, vs. Air Force; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 92%

SMU– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at South Florida, at Tulane, vs. Memphis; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 87%

Purdue– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Illinois, vs. Northwestern, at Indiana; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 86%

Florida– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, at Florida State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 85%

Washington State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Arizona State, at Arizona, vs. Washington; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 84%

Iowa– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Wisconsin, at Minnesota, vs. Nebraska; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 76%

Pittsburgh– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Virginia, vs. Duke, at Miami-FL; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 75%

Wisconsin– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Iowa, at Nebraska, Minnesota; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 74%

Oklahoma– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at West Virginia, vs. Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 72%

Memphis– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Tulsa, vs. North Alabama, at SMU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 71%

Middle Tennessee– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Charlotte, at FAU, at FIU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 68%

Appalachian State– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Marshall vs. Old Dominion, at Georgia Southern; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 66%

Michigan State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Rutgers, vs. Indiana, at Penn State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 65%

UNLV– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Fresno State, at Hawaii, vs. Nevada; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 62%

Southern Miss– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Coastal Carolina, vs. South Alabama, at UL-Monroe; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 61%

Marshall– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. App State, at Georgia Southern, vs. Georgia State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 60%

Arkansas– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, at Missouri; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 58%

Florida Atlantic– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at FIU, at Middle Tennessee, vs. Western Kentucky; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 56%

Ball State– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Ohio, at Miami-OH; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 55%

Georgia Southern– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at UL-Lafyette, vs. Marshall, vs. App. State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 54%

UAB– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. North Texas, at LSU, at Louisiana Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 53%

Bowling Green– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kent State, at Toledo, at Ohio; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 52%

Texas Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Kansas, at Iowa State, vs. Oklahoma; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 51%

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Bad Side of the Bowl Bubble: Teams who will likely be home for the holidays (36):

Army– Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: at Troy, vs. UConn, at UMass, vs. Navy; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 49%

Missouri– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Tennessee, vs. New Mexico State, vs. Arkansas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 48%

Utah State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Hawaii, vs. San Jose State, at Boise State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 47%

UL-Lafayette– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Georgia Southern, at Florida State, at Texas State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 46%

Miami-OH– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: at Northern Illinois, vs. Ball State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 44%

Iowa State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech, at TCU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 40%

Miami-FL– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia Tech, at Clemson, vs. Pittsburgh; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 38%

Georgia State– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. UL-Monroe, at James Madison, at Marshall; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 35%

Rice– Record: 5-4; Remaining Schedule: at Western Kentucky, vs. UTSA, at North Texas; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 32%

Texas A & M– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Auburn, vs. UMass, vs. LSU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 30%

Central Michigan– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Buffalo, vs. Western Michigan, at Eastern Michigan; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 27%

Virginia– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Coastal Carolina, at Virginia Tech; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 24%

UConn– Record: 5-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Liberty, at Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 23%

Georgia Tech– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Miami-FL, at North Carolina, at Georgia; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 22%

Western Michigan– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Northern Illinois, at Central Michigan vs. Toledo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 21%

Kent State– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Bowling Green, vs. Eastern Michigan, at Buffalo; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 20%

FIU– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. FAU, at UTEP, vs. Middle Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 19%

Rutgers– Record: 4-5; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan State, vs. Penn State, at Maryland; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 18%

Arizona State– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Washington State, vs. Oregon State, at Arizona; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 16%

Texas State– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at South Alabama, vs. Arkansas State, vs. UL-Lafayette; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 14%

West Virginia– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Oklahoma, v. Kansas State, at Oklahoma State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 13%

UTEP– Record: 4-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. FIU, at UTSA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 11%

Tulsa– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Memphis, vs. South Florida, at Houston; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 10%

Old Dominion– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. James Madison, at Appalachian State, at South Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 9%

UL-Monroe– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Georgia State, at Troy, vs. Southern Miss; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 8%

Auburn– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Texas A & M, vs. Western Kentucky, at Alabama; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 6%

California– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Oregon State, vs. Stanford, vs. UCLA; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 5%

Louisiana Tech– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UTSA, at Charlotte, vs. UAB; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 4%

Navy– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: vs. Notre Dame, at UCF, vs. Army; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 3%

Stanford– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Utah, at California, vs. BYU; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2.5%

Arizona– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at UCLA, vs. Washington State, vs. Arizona State; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 2%

Temple– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Houston, vs. Cincinnati, vs. East Carolina; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 1%

Nebraska– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Michigan vs. Wisconsin, at Iowa; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.3%

Vanderbilt– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Kentucky, vs. Florida, vs. Tennessee; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.2%

New Mexico State– Record: 3-5; Remaining Schedule: vs. Lamar, at Missouri, at Liberty; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: 0.1%

Indiana– Record: 3-6; Remaining Schedule: at Ohio State, at Michigan State, vs. Purdue; Odds of Bowl Eligibility: <0.1%

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Already Bowl Eligible (53):  (1) Clemson, (2) NC State, (3) Duke, (4) Florida State, (5) Louisville, (6) North Carolina, (7) Syracuse, (8) Wake Forest, (9) Cincinnati, (10) East Carolina, (11) Tulane, (12) UCF, (13) Illinois, (14) Maryland, (15) Michigan, (16) Minnesota, (17) Ohio State, (18), Penn State, (19) Baylor, (20) Kansas, (21) Kansas State, (22) Oklahoma State, (23) TCU, (24) Texas, (25) North Texas, (26) UTSA, (27) Western Kentucky, (28) Eastern Michigan, (29) Ohio, (30) Toledo, (31) Air Force, (32) Boise State, (33) San Jose State, (34) Wyoming, (35) Oregon, (36) Oregon State, (37) UCLA, (38) Southern Cal, (39) Utah, (40) Washington, (41) Alabama, (42) Georgia, (43) Kentucky, (44) LSU, (45) Mississippi State, (46) Ole Miss, (47) South Carolina, (48) Tennessee, (49) Coastal Carolina, (50) South Alabama, (51) Troy, (52) Liberty, (53) Notre Dame

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game (15):  (1) Boston College, (2) Virginia Tech, (3) South Florida, (4) Northwestern, (5) Charlotte, (6) Akron, (7) Northern Illinois, (8) Colorado State, (9) Hawaii, (10) Nevada, (11) New Mexico, (12) Colorado, (13) Arkansas State, (14) James Madison- FCS transition, (15) UMass

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Current Stats (131 FBS Teams):

Already Bowl Eligible: 53

Predicted to be Bowl Eligible: 27  (80)

Already Ineligible for a Bowl Game: 15

Predicted not to become Bowl Eligible: 36 (51)